Market News & Analysis
Auto-generated, data-driven articles on significant prediction market moves and cross-platform arbitrage opportunities. 1,351 published · page 14 of 14.
Lasher Leads NY-12 at 54% Despite Polling Third in March
Markets price Lasher 40 points above his 14% March poll standing; Bloomberg endorsed him five weeks before Hochul's April 13 backing.
Goff's Odds to Attend Swift-Kelce Wedding Fall to 21%
A March spike to 34% unwinds with no news catalyst; Kalshi prices Goff at 18% while Polymarket holds at 24%, a 6-point gap signaling thin order books.
Why Kash Patel's 80% Exit Odds Are Probably Right
Exit talks reported inside the administration while press secretary calls Patel 'critical.' Kalshi and Polymarket both sit at 80%, up 20pp in three days.
Lockheed Martin Falls to 18% Odds of a US Equity Stake
Odds dropped 22 points in three days. The PAC-3 MSE deal locks in contracts, not ownership, through 2033.
Perry Johnson Reaches 51% to Win Michigan GOP Governor Primary
Kalshi prices Johnson at 55% while the April Emerson poll shows 38.9% of Michigan Republican primary voters still undecided.
Wilson Leads SC Governor Betting at 41% While Polling Third at 15%
Q1 fundraising lead ($1.04M) and ~80% of GOP sheriffs back Wilson, yet Co/efficient polling places him 4 points behind both Evette and Mace.
Becerra Hits 26% in California Governor Primary Market After Swalwell Exit
Post-Swalwell polling shows Becerra at 19% among Democratic voters, nearly double his 10% topline, driving the market move to 26%.
El-Sayed Hits 41% on Prediction Markets Despite Polling at 22% in Michigan Senate Race
A 9-point market surge prices in Sanders' endorsement and grassroots momentum that polls haven't captured, with 33% of voters still undecided.
Phoebe Bridgers at 37%: Will She Attend the Swift-Kelce Wedding?
Bridgers dropped 12pp in three days with no public catalyst; Kalshi prices her at 68%, a 32pp cross-platform spread.
Can Becerra Win California's Governor Primary at 23%?
Becerra jumped from 10% to 23% in 72 hours after Swalwell's exit, yet he polls at just 4.3% with Porter and Steyer absorbing the same orphaned voters.
Evette Leads SC GOP Governor Market at 31% Despite 19% in Polls
McMaster and SBA Pro-Life America endorsements drove an 8pp market jump. Evette raised $1M in Q1, nearly matching Wilson's haul.
Bronson Falls to 36% to Advance in Alaska's Top-Four Governor Primary
A 10-point drop in 72 hours leaves Bronson tied at 10% polling support with Claman for the final advancement slot. Kalshi prices him at 32%.
McMorrow's Michigan Senate Nomination Odds Fall to 46%
Markets cut McMorrow's Democratic primary odds 12 points despite $3M raised and ballot qualification; Stevens now tied at 23.3% in polling.
PA-03 Markets Give Rabb 18% Despite Full Progressive Endorsement Stack
Rabb holds CPC PAC, Justice Democrats, and WFP backing, but markets favor Sharif Street's ward machine as May 19 primary nears.
Democrats Favored at 66% to Win Iowa Governor Race in 2026
Rob Sand holds a $10M cash edge and 66% implied odds — 9 points above last week's floor — after Cook moved Iowa to toss-up.
Snowden Pardon Odds Drop to 12% as Trump's Clemency Skips Him
Kalshi prices Snowden at 9%, Polymarket at 14%—a 5-point cross-platform spread that both point downward as Trump's pardon list grows without him.
SC Democrats at 23% in Senate Market After $4.3M Andrews Haul
Kalshi and Polymarket repriced the South Carolina Senate seat 8pp in three days; Graham leads 47–42% in the latest likely-voter poll.
Will Vance Visit Iran Before July? Markets Price It at 14%
Odds rose from 4% to 14% in three days as Vance landed in Islamabad. Kalshi sits at 15%, Polymarket at 12%.
Will Swalwell Win California Governor? Odds Fall 8pp Amid FBI File Fight
Swalwell's cease-and-desist to Kash Patel split his news cycle with a Sacramento ICE policy rollout, pushing his win probability from 46% to 38% in three days.
Alex Bores Hits 36% to Win NY-12 Dem Primary After $2.3M AI PAC Assault
AI industry PAC spent $2.3M attacking Bores, who polls at 11% but holds a $2.2M war chest and DC 37 backing. Markets jumped 11pp in three days.
Jackson Favored at 67% to Win Georgia GOP Governor Nomination
An 8pp surge follows debate pledge and King endorsement; Jackson has spent $30M on ads yet skipped a Black Republican forum.
Todd Blanche at 29% to Become Permanent AG Despite Holding the Role
MAGA backlash over Blanche's Democratic registration has cut his odds 10 points in 3 days. Lee Zeldin now leads among alternatives.
Alana Haim Falls 14 Points to 68% on Swift Wedding Attendance
Markets sold Alana Haim despite Harper's Bazaar naming 'the Haim sisters' on Swift's ~150-person guest list; Este Haim holds stronger documented ties to Swift.
Tom Weiler Falls to 2% in Minnesota GOP Senate Race After 20-Point Drop
Weiler raised $82,239 total — one-tenth of Schwarze's haul — while carrying just $57,613 cash on hand heading into the final five months of primary season.
Evette Falls to 30% to Win SC GOP Governor Primary After Mace Files
Kalshi and Polymarket both price Evette at 30%, down from 40%, despite McMaster and Trump endorsements, after Mace filed March 23.
Will Republicans Hold VA-06 in 2026? Markets Drop to 36%
Markets fell 15pp in 72 hours despite Cline's 37-point 2024 win. Democrats have flipped 30 state seats since January; Republicans have flipped zero.
VA-06 Republican Odds Drop 15 Points Despite Cline's 26-Point Win in 2024
GOP falls from 52% to 37% on Kalshi and Polymarket in 72 hours. Cline holds $521K cash on hand; no challenger or poll explains the move.
Philippe Hits 29% to Win French Presidency Despite 18-Point Poll Deficit
An 8pp surge in three days prices Édouard Philippe as the centrist runoff favorite, betting on rival fragility over his own first-round numbers.
Credit Card Routing Competition Hits 32% Despite CCCA Amendment Defeat
CCCA contracts surged 12 points in 3 days after its housing bill amendment was stripped. Kalshi prices it at 13%; Polymarket at 50%.
Bass Drops to 34% in LA Mayoral Market as Polls Show 16-Point Deficit
Bass has fallen to her lowest market price in three days; the Berkeley/LA Times poll shows 26% of likely voters still undecided, making her path to the top two uncertain.
Lula Holds at 41% as Haddad's São Paulo Gambit Reveals a Tighter 2026 Race
Lula deploys his top ally to contest São Paulo while runoff polls show a dead heat with Flávio Bolsonaro. Markets price him below even odds.
Sánchez Palomino Spikes to 16% in Peru Election Market With No Catalyst
Kalshi and Polymarket show 16% for Sánchez Palomino while Preddy holds at 5%; no polling shift, endorsement, or media coverage explains the 3x gap.
Will Blake Lively Attend Swift's Wedding? Odds Fall to 29%
Kalshi prices Lively at 28%, Polymarket at 30%; every source driving the collapse traces to anonymous insiders with no on-record confirmation.
Bores Hits 32% to Win NY-12 Dem Primary as $1.8M AI PAC Backfires
Alex Bores jumped from 22% to 32% in three days on Kalshi and Polymarket despite polling at 11%, aided by Carolyn Maloney's endorsement and $2.2M raised.
Cavanaugh Favored at 84% to Win NE-02 Democratic Primary
Cavanaugh leads Powell 43% to 15% in January polling despite a $370K fundraising deficit. CPC PAC and labor endorsements underpin his market dominance.
Dan Koh Leads MA-06 Primary at 75% After Recovering from 57% Low
Koh surged 11pp in three days with no new poll or dropout. Four funded rivals who dragged him to 57% in February are still running.
CCCA Passage Odds Fall to 12% After Senate Strips Routing Amendment
The Credit Card Competition Act lost its only active Senate pathway Jan. 30, shedding 26 percentage points in three days. Kalshi prices it at 10%.
2026 Brazil Presidential Election Odds: Lula and Bolsonaro's Son Are in a Dead Heat
The 2026 Brazil presidential election is a toss-up on prediction markets. Lula trades at 42¢ on Kalshi while Flávio Bolsonaro sits at 39¢ on Polymarket. Here's why the race tightened — and what the odds are telling us.
Eric Jones Surges to 88% in CA-04 Primary Market Against 28-Year Incumbent
Jones's top-two primary odds climbed to 88%. He outraised Thompson in the fourth quarter of 2025, while Thompson retained a small cash-on-hand advantage.
VA-06 Democrats Hit 51% Despite Cline's 26-Point Win in 2024
Markets still price VA-06 as a coin flip after an 8-point drop; Cook rates it Solid R and no Democratic candidate has raised meaningful money.
Koh Drops 15 Points to 64% in MA-06 Despite Buttigieg Endorsement
Dan Koh's MA-06 nomination odds slid from 79% to 64% in 72 hours. Kalshi and Polymarket show a 19-point spread, signaling unusual uncertainty.
Eric Jones Favored at 87% to Advance in CA-04 Primary
Jones leads Kalshi at 90% and Polymarket at 84%, with no certified results 18 days after the March 3rd primary. He out-raised Thompson $2.6M to $2M.
Rutinel Favored at 78% to Win CO-08 Democratic Primary
NRCC opposition research triggered a 10pp jump in Rutinel's nomination odds; Kalshi prices him at 80%, Polymarket at 76%.
Treg Taylor at 22% to Win Alaska Governor Race After Quiet Week
Former AG's odds more than doubled from 9% in three days on no news—the move reflects a fractured 10-candidate GOP primary, not Taylor's campaign.
Lauf Climbs to 45% in FL-19 Market as Rivals Clear the Field
A 9-point surge follows Sheriff Marceno's exit, not campaign momentum. Lauf leads a primary of transplant candidates with no Florida roots.
Anduril's $60B Fundraise Drops US Stake Odds to 16%, Down 22pp
A $4B VC mega-round led by Andreessen Horowitz and Thrive Capital eliminates the capital vacuum that would justify government equity intervention.
Will Susie Wiles Leave the White House Before 2027? Markets Say 40%
FBI subpoena, breast cancer diagnosis, and Vanity Fair fallout have compounded — Kalshi prices her exit at 42%, Polymarket at 37%, up 13pp in three days.
Byron Donalds Is at 86% to Win the Florida GOP Primary — and the Only Thing That Can Stop Him Hasn't Declared Yet
Byron Donalds leads the Florida Republican gubernatorial primary with Trump's endorsement, $50M in the bank, and 86% odds on prediction markets. The last serious wildcard — Casey DeSantis — still hasn't entered the race.
Jared Goff's odds to attend Swift-Kelce wedding spike to 34%
Goff's prediction market odds jumped by 14 points to 34%, indicating rising speculation about his attendance at the celebrity wedding.
Yan, Nurmagomedov, or Merab: UFC Bantamweight Title Market Just Became a Three-Way Toss-Up
Petr Yan's odds to end 2026 as UFC Bantamweight Champion just collapsed from 44% to 30%. With Merab guaranteed a rematch and Umar on a two-fight win streak, prediction markets no longer have a clear favorite.
Alexandre Pantoja's Title Odds Drop 10 Points as Recovery Timeline Remains Unclear
Pantoja's odds to reclaim the UFC Flyweight Championship have slipped to a 33% consensus — down 10 points since February 18th — as uncertainty grows around his recovery timeline following a freak injury loss at UFC 323.