About This Market
New York Mets vs.
New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (1:35 PM ET) — MLB game held on 2026-08-09. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Live prediction market odds for New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (1:35 PM ET). Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and ProphetX.
MLB·Resolved 2026-08-09
This market resolved on 2026-08-09. New York Mets was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
New York Mets vs.
New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (1:35 PM ET) — MLB game held on 2026-08-09. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate | ![]() | ![]() | ![]() | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
New York MetsWINNER | 99% | 100% | 100% | 99% |
Total over 6.5 | 99% | — | — | 99% |
Total under 6.5 | — | — | — | 99% |
Jared Triolo Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 99% |
Total under 12.5 | — | — | — | 99% |
Total under 10.5 | — | — | 0% | 99% |
Carson Benge Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 96% |
Luis Torrens Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 96% |
Sean Manaea Over 5.5 Strikeouts | 99% | — | 91% | 99% |
Henry Davis Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 93% |
Total over 3.5 | 99% | — | — | 92% |
New York Mets spread plus 2.5 | — | — | 100% | 92% |
New York Mets spread minus 1.5 | 99% | — | 100% | 91% |
Total over 8.5 | 99% | — | 100% | 91% |
Jared Jones Over 2.5 Strikeouts | 99% | — | 91% | — |
Sean Manaea Over 3.5 Strikeouts | 99% | — | 91% | — |
Total over 11.5 | 99% | — | 100% | 90% |
A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 80% | 99% |
Ronny Simon Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 80% | 99% |
New York Mets spread minus 4.5 | 99% | — | 100% | 89% |
Total over 9.5 | 99% | — | 100% | 89% |
Bo Bichette Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 80% | 98% |
Marcus Semien Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 80% | 97% |
Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 80% | 97% |
Rafael Flores Jr. Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 80% | 97% |
New York Mets spread plus 1.5 | — | — | 100% | 88% |
Total over 7.5 | 99% | — | 100% | 88% |
Spencer Horwitz Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 80% | 96% |
Jared Young Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 80% | 95% |
Total over 4.5 | 99% | — | — | 87% |
New York Mets spread minus 2.5 | 99% | — | 100% | 87% |
Brett Baty Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 80% | 94% |
Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 81% | 92% |
New York Mets spread plus 4.5 | — | — | — | 87% |
Total over 5.5 | 99% | — | — | 86% |
Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 80% | 92% |
Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 81% | 90% |
Esmerlyn Valdez Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 80% | 85% |
Total over 10.5 | 99% | — | 100% | 82% |
Jared Jones Under 3.5 Strikeouts | — | — | 81% | — |
New York Mets spread plus 3.5 | — | — | — | 81% |
Brandon Lowe Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 80% | — |
Bryan Reynolds Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 80% | — |
A.J. Ewing Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 80% | — |
Bo Bichette Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 80% | — |
Brett Baty Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 80% | — |
Esmerlyn Valdez Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 80% | — |
Francisco Alvarez Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 80% | — |
Francisco Lindor Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 80% | — |
Jake Mangum Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 80% | — |
Jared Young Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 80% | — |
Luis Robert Jr. Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 80% | — |
Marcus Semien Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 80% | — |
Nick Gonzales Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 80% | — |
Rafael Flores Jr. Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 80% | — |
Ronny Simon Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 80% | — |
Spencer Horwitz Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 80% | — |
Sean Manaea Over 4.5 Strikeouts | 99% | — | 91% | 61% |
Rafael Flores Jr. Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 1% | — | — | 75% |
New York Mets spread minus 3.5 | 99% | — | 100% | 75% |
Jared Jones Under 5.5 Strikeouts | — | — | 81% | 59% |
Jared Triolo Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 1% | — | — | 69% |
Francisco Alvarez Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | 68% |
Jorge Polanco Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 68% |
Total over 7.0 | — | — | — | 68% |
Jorge Polanco Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 67% |
Rafael Flores Jr. Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 66% |
Pittsburgh Pirates spread plus 1.0 | — | — | — | 66% |
Henry Davis Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 65% |
Brett Baty Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 1% | — | — | 64% |
Luis Robert Jr. Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | 64% |
Luis Torrens Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 64% |
Jared Triolo Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 63% |
Ronny Simon Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 63% |
Francisco Alvarez Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 62% |
Jake Mangum Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 62% |
Henry Davis Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 1% | — | — | 61% |
Jared Jones Under 4.5 Strikeouts | — | — | 81% | 40% |
Francisco Alvarez Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 60% |
Brandon Lowe Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 59% |
Carson Benge Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | 59% |
Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | 59% |
Jared Young Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | 59% |
Jared Young Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | 59% |
Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 53% | — | — | 59% |
Total under 9.0 | — | — | — | 59% |
Spencer Horwitz Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 58% |
Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 1% | — | — | 57% |
Esmerlyn Valdez Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 56% |
Marcus Semien Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 56% |
Bo Bichette Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | 55% |
Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 48% | — | — | 55% |
Marcus Semien Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | 55% |
Francisco Lindor Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 55% |
A.J. Ewing Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 55% |
Francisco Alvarez Over 0.5 Home Runs | 99% | — | 91% | 19% |
New York Mets spread plus 1.0 | — | — | — | 55% |
Bryan Reynolds Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 54% |
Total over 8.0 | — | — | — | 54% |
Bo Bichette Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 53% |
Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 10% | 96% |
Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 1% | — | — | 52% |
Carson Benge Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 52% |
Jared Young Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 52% |
Nick Gonzales Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 52% |
Total under 8.0 | — | — | — | 52% |
Luis Robert Jr. Over 0.5 Home Runs | 99% | — | 91% | 13% |
Spencer Horwitz Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 51% |
A.J. Ewing Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | 50% |
Jared Young Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 50% |
Francisco Alvarez Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 10% | 90% |
Pittsburgh Pirates spread minus 1.0 | — | — | — | 50% |
Jake Mangum Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | 49% |
Jared Triolo Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 0% | — | — | 49% |
Jake Mangum Over 0.5 Home Runs | 99% | — | 90% | 7% |
Francisco Alvarez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | 48% |
Luis Robert Jr. Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 48% |
Ronny Simon Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 53% | — | — | 48% |
Sean Manaea Under 5.5 Strikeouts | — | — | 10% | 84% |
Brett Baty Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 47% |
Henry Davis Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 0% | — | — | 46% |
Henry Davis Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 46% |
Total over 9.0 | — | — | — | 46% |
Luis Torrens Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 45% |
Rafael Flores Jr. Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 33% | — | — | 45% |
Jared Jones Over 4.5 Strikeouts | 1% | — | 19% | 66% |
Jorge Polanco Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 43% |
Jorge Polanco Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 42% |
Rafael Flores Jr. Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 41% |
Jared Triolo Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 38% |
New York Mets spread minus 1.0 | — | — | — | 38% |
Total under 7.0 | — | — | — | 38% |
Jared Jones Over 5.5 Strikeouts | 1% | — | 19% | 47% |
Pittsburgh Pirates spread plus 3.5 | — | — | 0% | 29% |
Sean Manaea Under 4.5 Strikeouts | — | — | 10% | 44% |
Total under 5.5 | — | — | — | 25% |
Pittsburgh Pirates spread plus 2.5 | — | — | 0% | 24% |
Pittsburgh Pirates spread minus 1.5 | 1% | — | 0% | 23% |
Pittsburgh Pirates spread plus 4.5 | — | — | 0% | 22% |
Total under 7.5 | — | — | 0% | 22% |
Total under 9.5 | — | — | 0% | 22% |
Esmerlyn Valdez Over 0.5 Home Runs | 1% | — | 20% | 23% |
Pittsburgh Pirates spread minus 3.5 | 1% | — | — | 22% |
Total under 11.5 | — | — | 0% | 21% |
Brandon Lowe Over 0.5 Home Runs | 2% | — | 19% | 20% |
Pittsburgh Pirates spread minus 2.5 | 1% | — | 0% | 19% |
Pittsburgh Pirates spread plus 1.5 | — | — | 0% | 19% |
Total under 8.5 | — | — | 0% | 19% |
Henry Davis Over 0.5 Home Runs | 2% | — | — | 18% |
Bryan Reynolds Over 0.5 Home Runs | 1% | — | — | 17% |
Francisco Lindor Over 0.5 Home Runs | 2% | — | — | 17% |
Total under 4.5 | — | — | — | 17% |
Pittsburgh Pirates spread minus 4.5 | — | — | — | 17% |
Brett Baty Over 0.5 Home Runs | 8% | — | — | 14% |
Rafael Flores Jr. Over 0.5 Home Runs | 3% | — | — | 14% |
Carson Benge Over 0.5 Home Runs | 37% | — | — | 13% |
Jared Young Over 0.5 Home Runs | 1% | — | — | 13% |
Marcus Semien Over 0.5 Home Runs | 2% | — | — | 13% |
Nick Gonzales Over 0.5 Home Runs | 4% | — | — | 13% |
Total under 3.5 | — | — | — | 12% |
Spencer Horwitz Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 11% |
Bo Bichette Over 0.5 Home Runs | 3% | — | — | 11% |
Total over 12.5 | 1% | — | — | 11% |
A.J. Ewing Over 0.5 Home Runs | 6% | — | — | 10% |
Jake Mangum Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 10% | 99% |
Jared Jones Under 2.5 Strikeouts | — | — | 10% | — |
Sean Manaea Under 3.5 Strikeouts | — | — | 10% | — |
Jared Triolo Over 0.5 Home Runs | 4% | — | — | 9% |
Ronny Simon Over 0.5 Home Runs | 7% | — | — | 9% |
Luis Torrens Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 8% |
Pittsburgh Pirates | 1% | 1% | 0% | 3% |
A.J. Ewing Over 1.5 Home Runs | 1% | — | — | — |
Bo Bichette Over 1.5 Home Runs | 0% | — | — | — |
Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 Home Runs | 2% | — | — | — |
Brett Baty Over 1.5 Home Runs | 1% | — | — | — |
Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 Home Runs | 1% | — | — | — |
Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 Home Runs | 1% | — | — | — |
Francisco Alvarez Over 1.5 Home Runs | 5% | — | — | — |
Francisco Lindor Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — |
Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 Home Runs | 1% | — | — | — |
Francisco Lindor Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — |
Francisco Lindor Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 19% | — | — | — |
Francisco Lindor Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 9% | — | — | — |
Jake Mangum Over 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | — |
Jared Jones Over 3.5 Strikeouts | 1% | — | — | — |
Jared Jones Over 6.5 Strikeouts | 1% | — | — | — |
Jared Jones Over 7.5 Strikeouts | 1% | — | — | — |
Jared Jones Over 8.5 Strikeouts | 1% | — | — | — |
Jared Jones Over 9.5 Strikeouts | 1% | — | — | — |
Jared Young Over 1.5 Home Runs | 0% | — | — | — |
Luis Robert Jr. Over 1.5 Home Runs | 1% | — | — | — |
Marcus Semien Over 1.5 Home Runs | 2% | — | — | — |
Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 Home Runs | 1% | — | — | — |
Over 2.5 runs scored | 99% | — | — | — |
Ronny Simon Over 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | — |
Sean Manaea Over 2.5 Strikeouts | 99% | — | — | — |
Sean Manaea Over 6.5 Strikeouts | 99% | — | — | — |
Sean Manaea Over 7.5 Strikeouts | 99% | — | — | — |
Sean Manaea Over 8.5 Strikeouts | 99% | — | — | — |
Spencer Horwitz Over 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | — |
New York Mets
99.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US and ProphetX.
KalshiIf Pittsburgh wins the New York M vs Pittsburgh professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 9, 2026 at 1:35 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the New York M vs Pittsburgh professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 9, 2026 at 1:35 PM EDT. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two days). If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two days away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
PolymarketIn the upcoming MLB game between the New York Mets and Pittsburgh Pirates, scheduled for August 9 at 1:35PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York Mets" if the New York Mets win the game. This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Polymarket USThis market will settle to the winner of the New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates MLB game scheduled for 2026-08-09 at 1:35PM ET. Extra innings are included if played. If the game is delayed, postponed, or suspended and not rescheduled to a date within two weeks of the originally scheduled date, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from MLB.
Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
The last available prices are New York Mets: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 99.9¢ on Polymarket, 99.0¢ on ProphetX, 99.5¢ on Polymarket US; Pittsburgh Pirates: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.1¢ on Polymarket, 2.5¢ on ProphetX, 0.5¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
The largest price difference shown across venues is 2.4 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.
For example, New York Mets at 99.5¢ implies about a 99.5% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.