About This Market
Abe Alsaghir vs.
Abe Alsaghir vs. Fabrizio Escarrega — UFC fight held on 2026-08-11. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Live prediction market odds for Abe Alsaghir vs. Fabrizio Escarrega. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and ProphetX.

Resolved 2026-08-11
This market resolved on 2026-08-11. Fabrizio Escarrega was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 59%.
Abe Alsaghir vs.
Abe Alsaghir vs. Fabrizio Escarrega — UFC fight held on 2026-08-11. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate | ![]() | ![]() | ![]() | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Fabrizio EscarregaWINNER | 1% | 98% | 58% | 60% |
Over 1.5 Rounds | — | — | 51% | — |
Under 1.5 Rounds | — | — | 49% | — |
Abe Alsaghir | 97% | 2% | 42% | 51% |
Alsaghir to win by KO/TKO: No | — | — | 99% | — |
Alsaghir to win by KO/TKO: Yes | — | — | 99% | — |
Escarrega to win by KO/TKO: No | — | — | 99% | — |
Escarrega to win by KO/TKO: Yes | — | — | 99% | — |
Fight to Go the Distance: No | — | — | 99% | — |
Fight to Go the Distance: Yes | — | — | 99% | — |
Fight won by KO/TKO: No | — | — | 99% | — |
Fight won by KO/TKO: Yes | — | — | 99% | — |
Fight won by submission: No | — | — | 99% | — |
Fight won by submission: Yes | — | — | 99% | — |
Over 0.5 Rounds | — | — | 99% | — |
Over 2.5 Rounds | — | — | 98% | — |
Under 0.5 Rounds | — | — | 99% | — |
Under 2.5 Rounds | — | — | 99% | — |
Fabrizio Escarrega
54.1% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US and ProphetX.
KalshiIf Abe Alsaghir wins the Escarrega vs Alsaghir professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Escarrega vs Alsaghir professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 11, 2026. If this fight is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled fight has finished (within two weeks). If the fight is declared a tie or no contest, the market will resolve to 50/50 for both fighters. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC. Any references to the “UFC,” or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Zuffa and Kalshi.
PolymarketThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Abe Alsaghir and Fabrizio Escarrega at Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 1, scheduled for August 11, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Polymarket USThis market will settle to the winner of the Abe Alsaghir vs Fabrizio Escarrega UFC fight scheduled for August 11, 2026. If the fight ends in a draw or is declared a no contest, the market will settle to $0.50. If the fight is cancelled before the opening bell, the market will settle to the last fair market price. If the fight is not held within two days of the originally scheduled date, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from UFC.
Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
The last available prices are Fabrizio Escarrega: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 58.0¢ on Polymarket, 59.5¢ on ProphetX, 98.0¢ on Polymarket US; Abe Alsaghir: 97.0¢ on Kalshi, 42.0¢ on Polymarket, 50.5¢ on ProphetX, 2.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
The largest price difference shown across venues is 97.0 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.
For example, Fabrizio Escarrega at 54.1¢ implies about a 54.1% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.