Live prediction market odds for Alik Lorenz vs. Mahamed Aly. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and ProphetX.
Alik Lorenz vs. Mahamed Aly
2026-08-18
Best price · tap to trade
Live prediction market odds for Alik Lorenz vs. Mahamed Aly. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and ProphetX.
2026-08-18
Best price · tap to trade
Traders give Mahamed Aly about a 21.3% chance. Alik Lorenz follows at 80.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, and ProphetX. The largest cross-platform price difference is 81.1 percentage points.
Traders give Mahamed Aly about a 21.3% chance. Alik Lorenz follows at 80.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, and ProphetX. The largest cross-platform price difference is 81.1 percentage points.
Alik Lorenz vs. Mahamed Aly — UFC fight scheduled for 2026-08-18. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
KalshiPolymarket USPolymarketProphetXKalshiPolymarket| Platform | Implied % | Yes bid / ask | No bid / ask | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KalshiPolymarketKalshiKalshi90¢Mahamed Aly
21.3% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US and ProphetX.
KalshiIf Mohamed Aly wins the Lorenz vs Aly professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Lorenz vs Aly professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 18, 2026. If this fight is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled fight has finished (within two weeks). If the fight is declared a tie or no contest, the market will resolve to 50/50 for both fighters. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC. Any references to the “UFC,” or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Zuffa and Kalshi.
PolymarketEach market will resolve to "Over" if the fight between Alik Lorenz and Mahamed Aly at Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 2, scheduled for August 18, 2026, lasts beyond the listed round threshold. Each market will resolve to "Under" if the fight does not last beyond the listed round threshold. For example: "Over 0.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight continues past the 2:30 mark of Round 1. "Under 0.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight ends before the 2:30 mark of Round 1. If the fight ends exactly at the threshold, it will resolve "50-50." If the bout is not scored, postponed beyond September 1, 2026, or canceled, all options will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Polymarket USThis market will settle to the winner of the Alik Lorenz vs Mahamed Aly UFC fight scheduled for August 18, 2026. If the fight ends in a draw or is declared a no contest, the market will settle to $0.50. If the fight is cancelled before the opening bell, the market will settle to the last fair market price. If the fight is not held within two days of the originally scheduled date, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from UFC.
ProphetXSports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Mahamed Aly: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 1.0¢ on Polymarket, 82.1¢ on ProphetX, 1.0¢ on Polymarket US; Alik Lorenz: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 99.0¢ on Polymarket, 24.2¢ on ProphetX, 99.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
The largest price difference shown across venues is 81.1 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.
For example, Mahamed Aly at 21.3¢ implies about a 21.3% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading.