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Kalshi / Polymarket

Alonzo Menifield vs. Iwo Baraniewski

2026-09-20

Best price · tap to trade

Iwo Baraniewski69¢1.45x

Alonzo Menifield32¢3.13x

About This Market

Traders give Iwo Baraniewski about a 34.5% chance. Alonzo Menifield follows at 65.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 68.9 percentage points.

Alonzo Menifield vs. Iwo Baraniewski: UFC fight scheduled for 2026-09-20. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market Prices Compare Fees Before You Trade New to Polymarket?

Live Markets

2 platforms

Moneyline

OutcomeConsensus

Kalshi

Polymarket

Best price

Alonzo MenifieldARB

65%

32¢

100¢

3.17x32¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	31.0%	30¢	32¢	68¢	70¢
Polymarket	99.0%	98¢	100¢	0¢	2¢

Iwo Baraniewski

single venue68%

69¢

1.45x69¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	68.0%	67¢	69¢	31¢	33¢

Kalshi

Polymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Method of Victory

OutcomeConsensus

Polymarket

Best price

Alonzo Menifield by DecisionYes

Alonzo Menifield by KO/TKO/DQNo

Iwo Baraniewski by SubmissionNo

Iwo Baraniewski by DecisionNo

Alonzo Menifield by SubmissionNo

Draw/No ContestNo

Iwo Baraniewski by KO/TKO/DQNo

Menifield to win by KO/TKO: No

single venue84%

85¢

1.18x85¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Polymarket	84.0%	83¢	85¢	15¢	17¢

Fight won by submission: No

single venue84%

85¢

1.18x85¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Polymarket	84.0%	83¢	85¢	15¢	17¢

Fight won by KO/TKO: No

single venue83%

84¢

1.19x84¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Polymarket	83.0%	82¢	84¢	16¢	18¢

Fight won by decision: Yes

single venue81%

82¢

1.23x82¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Polymarket	81.0%	80¢	82¢	18¢	20¢

Baraniewski to win by KO/TKO: Yes

single venue61%

62¢

1.61x62¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Polymarket	61.0%	60¢	62¢	38¢	40¢

Fight won by decision: No

single venue50%

51¢

1.96x51¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Polymarket	50.0%	49¢	51¢	49¢	51¢

Baraniewski to win by KO/TKO: No

single venue37%

38¢

2.63x38¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Polymarket	37.0%	36¢	38¢	62¢	64¢

Fight won by KO/TKO: Yes

single venue15%

16¢

6.25x16¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Polymarket	15.0%	14¢	16¢	84¢	86¢

Fight won by submission: Yes

single venue14%

15¢

6.67x15¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Polymarket	14.0%	13¢	15¢	85¢	87¢

Menifield to win by KO/TKO: Yes

single venue14%

15¢

6.67x15¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Polymarket	14.0%	13¢	15¢	85¢	87¢

Polymarket

Round of Victory

Decision / Draw / No ContestYes

Alonzo Menifield to win in Round 1No

Iwo Baraniewski to win in Round 3No

Alonzo Menifield to win in Round 3No

Alonzo Menifield to win in Round 2No

Iwo Baraniewski to win in Round 2No

Iwo Baraniewski to win in Round 1No

Total Rounds

Best price

Over 0.5 Rounds

Under 0.5 Rounds

Goes the Distance

Fight to Go the Distance?

YES

100¢

0¢

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Rules for Candidate:

Kalshi

Primary Rule

If Iwo Baraniewski wins the Menifield vs Baraniewski professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the Menifield vs Baraniewski professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 19, 2026. If this fight is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled fight has finished (within two weeks). If the fight is declared a tie or no contest, the market will resolve to 50/50 for both fighters. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC. Any references to the “UFC,” or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Zuffa and Kalshi.

Resolution Oracles

Kalshi Rules

Polymarket

Primary Rule

This market will resolve to "Alonzo Menifield" if Alonzo Menifield is officially declared the winner of the fight against Iwo Baraniewski at UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2, scheduled for September 19, 2026. It will resolve to "Iwo Baraniewski" if Iwo Baraniewski is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 3, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Resolution Oracles

UMA Optimistic Oracle

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Alonzo Menifield vs. Iwo Baraniewski prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Alonzo Menifield vs. Iwo Baraniewski odds?

The latest available prices are Iwo Baraniewski: 69.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.1¢ on Polymarket; Alonzo Menifield: 31.5¢ on Kalshi, 99.9¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Why do Alonzo Menifield vs. Iwo Baraniewski odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 68.9 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do Alonzo Menifield vs. Iwo Baraniewski prediction market payouts work?

For example, Iwo Baraniewski at 34.5¢ implies about a 34.5% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading.

Alonzo Menifield vs. Iwo Baraniewski

About This Market

Price History

Alonzo Menifield vs. Iwo Baraniewski

About This Market

Price History

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Smart Trade Router

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Frequently Asked Questions

Alonzo Menifield vs. Iwo Baraniewski

About This Market

Price History

Alonzo Menifield vs. Iwo Baraniewski

About This Market

Price History

Related Markets

Filip Krolo vs. Alexandre Aubriot

Nicholls Colonels vs. Houston Christian Huskies

Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles vs. Western Carolina Catamounts

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Filip Krolo vs. Alexandre Aubriot

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Moneyline

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Round of Victory

Smart Trade Router

Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: Alonzo Menifield vs. Iwo Baraniewski

Frequently Asked Questions