About This Market
Amanda Lemos vs.
Amanda Lemos vs. Alexia Thainara — UFC fight held on 2026-08-09. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Live prediction market odds for Amanda Lemos vs. Alexia Thainara. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Resolved 2026-08-09
This market resolved on 2026-08-09. Alexia Thainara was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
Amanda Lemos vs.
Amanda Lemos vs. Alexia Thainara — UFC fight held on 2026-08-09. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate | ![]() | ![]() |
|---|---|---|
Fight to Go the Distance: Yes | — | 100% |
Over 0.5 Rounds | — | 100% |
Over 1.5 Rounds | — | 100% |
Over 2.5 Rounds | — | 100% |
Alexia ThainaraWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Fight won by submission: No | — | 100% |
Lemos to win by KO/TKO: No | — | 100% |
Thainara to win by KO/TKO: No | — | 100% |
Fight won by KO/TKO: No | — | 95% |
Amanda Lemos | 1% | 0% |
Fight to Go the Distance: No | — | 0% |
Fight won by submission: Yes | — | 0% |
Lemos to win by KO/TKO: Yes | — | 0% |
Thainara to win by KO/TKO: Yes | — | 0% |
Under 0.5 Rounds | — | 0% |
Under 1.5 Rounds | — | 0% |
Under 2.5 Rounds | — | 0% |
Alexia Thainara by Decision | 100% | — |
Alexia Thainara by KO/TKO/DQ | 100% | — |
Alexia Thainara by Submission | 100% | — |
Alexia Thainara to win in Round 1 | 100% | — |
Alexia Thainara to win in Round 2 | 100% | — |
Alexia Thainara to win in Round 3 | 100% | — |
Amanda Lemos by Decision | 100% | — |
Amanda Lemos by KO/TKO/DQ | 100% | — |
Amanda Lemos by Submission | 100% | — |
Amanda Lemos to win in Round 1 | 100% | — |
Amanda Lemos to win in Round 2 | 100% | — |
Amanda Lemos to win in Round 3 | 100% | — |
Decision / Draw / No Contest | 100% | — |
Draw/No Contest | 100% | — |
Fight won by KO/TKO: Yes | — | — |
Alexia Thainara
99.9% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Alexia Thainara wins the Lemos vs Thainara professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Lemos vs Thainara professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 8, 2026. If this fight is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled fight has finished (within two weeks). If the fight is declared a tie or no contest, the market will resolve to 50/50 for both fighters. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC. Any references to the “UFC,” or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Zuffa and Kalshi.
PolymarketThis market will resolve to "Amanda Lemos" if Amanda Lemos is officially declared the winner of the fight against Alexia Thainara at UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld, scheduled for August 8, 2026. It will resolve to "Alexia Thainara" if Alexia Thainara is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 22, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
The last available prices are Alexia Thainara: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 99.9¢ on Polymarket; Amanda Lemos: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.1¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
The largest price difference shown across venues is 0.9 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.
For example, Alexia Thainara at 99.9¢ implies about a 99.9% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.