About This Market
Bella Mir vs.
Bella Mir vs. Alex Apodaca — UFC fight held on 2026-08-25. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Live prediction market odds for Bella Mir vs. Alex Apodaca. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and ProphetX.

Resolved 2026-08-25
This market resolved on 2026-08-25. Bella Mir was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 96%.
Bella Mir vs.
Bella Mir vs. Alex Apodaca — UFC fight held on 2026-08-25. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate | ![]() | ![]() | ![]() | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Apodaca to win by KO/TKO: No | — | — | 99% | — |
Mir to win by KO/TKO: No | — | — | 97% | — |
Bella MirWINNER | 95% | 94% | 97% | 97% |
Fight to Go the Distance: No | — | — | 94% | — |
Fight won by KO/TKO: No | — | — | 93% | — |
Fight won by KO/TKO: Yes | — | — | 86% | — |
Fight won by submission: Yes | — | — | 86% | — |
Under 1.5 Rounds | — | — | 83% | — |
Mir to win by KO/TKO: Yes | — | — | 82% | — |
Bella Mir by Submission | 76% | — | — | — |
Bella Mir to win in Round 1 | 74% | — | — | — |
Fight won by submission: No | — | — | 66% | — |
Over 1.5 Rounds | — | — | 23% | — |
Bella Mir by KO/TKO/DQ | 21% | — | — | — |
Bella Mir to win in Round 2 | 17% | — | — | — |
Decision / Draw / No Contest | 15% | — | — | — |
Fight to Go the Distance: Yes | — | — | 15% | — |
Bella Mir by Decision | 7% | — | — | — |
Bella Mir to win in Round 3 | 7% | — | — | — |
Alex Apodaca | 7% | 6% | 3% | 6% |
Alex Apodaca to win in Round 1 | 5% | — | — | — |
Alex Apodaca to win in Round 3 | 4% | — | — | — |
Apodaca to win by KO/TKO: Yes | — | — | 4% | — |
Alex Apodaca by KO/TKO/DQ | 3% | — | — | — |
Draw/No Contest | 3% | — | — | — |
Alex Apodaca by Decision | 2% | — | — | — |
Alex Apodaca by Submission | 2% | — | — | — |
Alex Apodaca to win in Round 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
Over 0.5 Rounds | — | — | 99% | — |
Over 2.5 Rounds | — | — | 99% | — |
Under 0.5 Rounds | — | — | 99% | — |
Under 2.5 Rounds | — | — | 99% | — |
Bella Mir
95.8% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US and ProphetX.
KalshiIf Bella Mir wins the Mir vs Apodaca professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Mir vs Apodaca professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 25, 2026. If this fight is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled fight has finished (within two weeks). If the fight is declared a tie or no contest, the market will resolve to 50/50 for both fighters. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC. Any references to the “UFC,” or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Zuffa and Kalshi.
PolymarketThis market will resolve to "Bella Mir" if Bella Mir is officially declared the winner of the fight against Alex Apodaca at Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 3, scheduled for August 25, 2026. It will resolve to "Alex Apodaca" if Alex Apodaca is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 8, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Polymarket USThis market will settle to the winner of the Bella Mir vs Alex Apodaca UFC fight scheduled for August 25, 2026. If the fight ends in a draw or is declared a no contest, the market will settle to $0.50. If the fight is cancelled before the opening bell, the market will settle to the last fair market price. If the fight is not held within two days of the originally scheduled date, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from UFC.
Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
The last available prices are Bella Mir: 95.0¢ on Kalshi, 96.9¢ on Polymarket, 97.3¢ on ProphetX, 94.0¢ on Polymarket US; Alex Apodaca: 7.0¢ on Kalshi, 3.1¢ on Polymarket, 6.2¢ on ProphetX, 6.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
The largest price difference shown across venues is 3.9 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.
For example, Bella Mir at 95.8¢ implies about a 95.8% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.