About This Market
Dustin Stoltzfus vs.
Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik — UFC fight held on 2026-08-16. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Live prediction market odds for Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Resolved 2026-08-16
This market resolved on 2026-08-16. Dustin Stoltzfus was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
Dustin Stoltzfus vs.
Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik — UFC fight held on 2026-08-16. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate | ![]() | ![]() |
|---|---|---|
Fight won by submission: Yes | — | 100% |
Over 1.5 Rounds | — | 100% |
Over 0.5 Rounds | — | 100% |
Dustin StoltzfusWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Dustin Stoltzfus by Submission | 99% | — |
Dustin Stoltzfus to win in Round 2 | 99% | — |
Stoltzfus to win by KO/TKO: No | — | 86% |
Fight to Go the Distance: No | — | 74% |
Under 2.5 Rounds | — | 66% |
Abdul-Malik to win by KO/TKO: Yes | — | 62% |
Fight won by KO/TKO: Yes | — | 56% |
Fight won by KO/TKO: No | — | 44% |
Abdul-Malik to win by KO/TKO: No | — | 38% |
Over 2.5 Rounds | — | 34% |
Fight to Go the Distance: Yes | — | 26% |
Stoltzfus to win by KO/TKO: Yes | — | 14% |
Decision / Draw / No Contest | 1% | — |
Draw/No Contest | 1% | — |
Dustin Stoltzfus by Decision | 1% | — |
Dustin Stoltzfus by KO/TKO/DQ | 1% | — |
Dustin Stoltzfus to win in Round 1 | 1% | — |
Dustin Stoltzfus to win in Round 3 | 1% | — |
Mansur Abdul-Malik by Decision | 1% | — |
Mansur Abdul-Malik by KO/TKO/DQ | 1% | — |
Mansur Abdul-Malik by Submission | 1% | — |
Mansur Abdul-Malik to win in Round 1 | 1% | — |
Mansur Abdul-Malik to win in Round 2 | 1% | — |
Mansur Abdul-Malik to win in Round 3 | 1% | — |
Mansur Abdul-Malik | 1% | 0% |
Under 0.5 Rounds | — | 1% |
Fight won by submission: No | — | 0% |
Under 1.5 Rounds | — | 0% |
Dustin Stoltzfus
99.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Dustin Stoltzfus wins the Abdul-Malik vs Stoltzfus professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Abdul-Malik vs Stoltzfus professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 15, 2026. If this fight is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled fight has finished (within two weeks). If the fight is declared a tie or no contest, the market will resolve to 50/50 for both fighters. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC. Any references to the “UFC,” or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Zuffa and Kalshi.
PolymarketEach market will resolve to "Over" if the fight between Dustin Stoltzfus and Mansur Abdul-Malik at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026, lasts beyond the listed round threshold. Each market will resolve to "Under" if the fight does not last beyond the listed round threshold. For example: "Over 1.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight continues past the 2:30 mark of Round 2. "Under 1.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight ends before the 2:30 mark of Round 2. If the fight ends exactly at the threshold, it will resolve "50-50." If the bout is not scored, postponed beyond August 29, 2026, or canceled, all options will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
The last available prices are Dustin Stoltzfus: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 99.9¢ on Polymarket; Mansur Abdul-Malik: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.1¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
The largest price difference shown across venues is 0.9 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.
For example, Dustin Stoltzfus at 99.5¢ implies about a 99.5% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.