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Live prediction market odds for Hugo Guillon vs. Luis Hernandez. Compare prices across Kalshi and Novig and Polymarket and ProphetX.

Browse historical results
Kalshi

Kalshi

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Novig / Polymarket / ProphetX

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Hugo Guillon vs. Luis Hernandez

2026-09-15

Best price · tap to trade

Hugo Guillon1¢100.00xKalshiLuis Hernandez42¢2.38xNovig
Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds

About This Market

Traders give Hugo Guillon about a 43.2% chance. Luis Hernandez follows at 59.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, and ProphetX. The largest cross-platform price difference is 62.4 percentage points.

Traders give Hugo Guillon about a 43.2% chance. Luis Hernandez follows at 59.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, and ProphetX. The largest cross-platform price difference is 62.4 percentage points.

Hugo Guillon vs. Luis Hernandez: UFC fight scheduled for 2026-09-15. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

4 platforms

Moneyline

OutcomeConsensus
Kalshi
Novig
Polymarket
ProphetX
Best price
HG
Hugo GuillonARB
43%
Kalshi1¢
Novig58¢
Polymarket57¢
ProphetX63¢
Kalshi200.00x1¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%1¢1¢99¢99¢
NovigNovig
57.0%56¢58¢42¢44¢
PolymarketPolymarket
51.5%46¢57¢43¢54¢
ProphetXProphetX
62.0%61¢63¢37¢39¢
LH
Luis HernandezARB
59%
Kalshi100¢
Novig42¢
Polymarket54¢
ProphetX48¢
Novig2.38x42¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
99.0%98¢100¢0¢2¢
NovigNovig
41.0%40¢42¢58¢60¢
PolymarketPolymarket
48.5%43¢54¢46¢57¢
ProphetXProphetX
47.0%46¢48¢52¢54¢
KalshiKalshiNovigNovigPolymarketPolymarketProphetXProphetX

Method of Victory

OutcomeConsensus
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
Fight won by decision: YesNo
Luis Hernandez by SubmissionYes
Luis Hernandez by KO/TKO/DQNo
Hugo Guillon by KO/TKO/DQNo
Hugo Guillon by SubmissionNo
Luis Hernandez by DecisionNo
Draw/No ContestNo
Hugo Guillon by DecisionNo
Fight won by submission: YesYes
HT
Hernandez to win by KO/TKO: No
single venue75%
Polymarket76¢
Polymarket1.32x76¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
75.0%74¢76¢24¢26¢
GT
Guillon to win by KO/TKO: No
single venue67%
Polymarket68¢
Polymarket1.47x68¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
67.0%66¢68¢32¢34¢
Fight won by KO/TKO: YesNo
FW
Fight won by decision: No
single venue50%
Polymarket51¢
Polymarket1.98x51¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
50.0%49¢51¢49¢51¢
FW
Fight won by KO/TKO: No
single venue46%
Polymarket47¢
Polymarket2.13x47¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
46.0%45¢47¢53¢55¢
Guillon to win by KO/TKO: YesNo
Hernandez to win by KO/TKO: YesNo
FW
Fight won by submission: No
single venue1%
Polymarket1¢
Polymarket100.00x1¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
1.0%1¢1¢99¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket

Round of Victory

Luis Hernandez to win in Round 2Yes
Luis Hernandez to win in Round 1No
Hugo Guillon to win in Round 1No
Hugo Guillon to win in Round 3No
Decision / Draw / No ContestNo
Luis Hernandez to win in Round 3No
Hugo Guillon to win in Round 2No

Total Rounds

Over 1.5 RoundsNo
Under 1.5 RoundsYes

Goes the Distance

Fight to Go the Distance?
YES-
NOPolymarket53¢

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oracle
ProphetXProphetX
ProphetX Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread62.4%
Platforms4
Candidates2
Leader

Hugo Guillon

43.2% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Hugo Guillon vs. Luis Hernandez

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Novig and Polymarket and ProphetX.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Luis Hernandez wins the Hernandez vs Guillon professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the Hernandez vs Guillon professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 15, 2026. If this fight is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled fight has finished (within two weeks). If the fight is declared a tie or no contest, the market will resolve to 50/50 for both fighters. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC. Any references to the “UFC,” or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Zuffa and Kalshi.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
NovigNovig
Primary Rule

Luis Hernandez in Luis Hernandez @ Hugo Guillon (UFC); settled by Novig.

Edge Cases

If the contract cannot be settled on the stated outcome, Novig settles it at fair market value (FMV) instead of refunding it.

PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve to "Hugo Guillon" if Hugo Guillon is officially declared the winner of the fight against Luis Hernandez at Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 6, scheduled for September 15, 2026. It will resolve to "Luis Hernandez" if Luis Hernandez is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oracle
ProphetXProphetX
Primary Rule

Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules

Resolution Oracles
ProphetX Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Hugo Guillon vs. Luis Hernandez prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Hugo Guillon vs. Luis Hernandez odds?

The latest available prices are Hugo Guillon: 0.5¢ on Kalshi, 51.5¢ on Polymarket, 62.9¢ on ProphetX, 58.0¢ on Novig; Luis Hernandez: 99.5¢ on Kalshi, 48.5¢ on Polymarket, 47.9¢ on ProphetX, 42.0¢ on Novig. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Why do Hugo Guillon vs. Luis Hernandez odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 62.4 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do Hugo Guillon vs. Luis Hernandez prediction market payouts work?

For example, Hugo Guillon at 43.2¢ implies about a 43.2% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading.