About This Market
Jaden Ortega vs.
Jaden Ortega vs. Alvi Dasuyev: UFC fight held on 2026-09-22. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Live prediction market odds for Jaden Ortega vs. Alvi Dasuyev. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and ProphetX.

Resolved 2026-09-22
This market resolved on 2026-09-22. Alvi Dasuyev was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 77%.
Jaden Ortega vs.
Jaden Ortega vs. Alvi Dasuyev: UFC fight held on 2026-09-22. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate | ![]() | ![]() | |
|---|---|---|---|
Fight won by submission: No | — | 86% | — |
Fight to Go the Distance: No | — | 82% | — |
Fight won by decision: No | — | 79% | — |
Over 0.5 Rounds | — | 79% | — |
Ortega to win by KO/TKO: No | — | 78% | — |
Alvi DasuyevWINNER | 100% | 70% | 77% |
Dasuyev to win by KO/TKO: No | — | 62% | — |
Fight won by KO/TKO: Yes | — | 59% | — |
Under 1.5 Rounds | — | 51% | — |
Under 2.5 Rounds | — | 50% | — |
Over 1.5 Rounds | — | 49% | — |
Fight won by KO/TKO: No | — | 41% | — |
Dasuyev to win by KO/TKO: Yes | — | 38% | — |
Jaden Ortega | 1% | 31% | 33% |
Over 2.5 Rounds | — | 31% | — |
Fight won by decision: Yes | — | 25% | — |
Ortega to win by KO/TKO: Yes | — | 23% | — |
Under 0.5 Rounds | — | 21% | — |
Fight to Go the Distance: Yes | — | 18% | — |
Fight won by submission: Yes | — | 16% | — |
Alvi Dasuyev by Decision | — | — | — |
Alvi Dasuyev by KO/TKO/DQ | — | — | — |
Alvi Dasuyev by Submission | — | — | — |
Alvi Dasuyev to win in Round 1 | — | — | — |
Alvi Dasuyev to win in Round 2 | — | — | — |
Alvi Dasuyev to win in Round 3 | — | — | — |
Decision / Draw / No Contest | — | — | — |
Draw/No Contest | — | — | — |
Jaden Ortega by Decision | — | — | — |
Jaden Ortega by KO/TKO/DQ | — | — | — |
Jaden Ortega by Submission | — | — | — |
Jaden Ortega to win in Round 1 | — | — | — |
Jaden Ortega to win in Round 2 | — | — | — |
Jaden Ortega to win in Round 3 | — | — | — |
Alvi Dasuyev
81.9% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and ProphetX.
KalshiIf Jaden Ortega wins the Ortega vs Dasuyev professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Ortega vs Dasuyev professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 22, 2026. If this fight is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled fight has finished (within two weeks). If the fight is declared a tie or no contest, the market will resolve to 50/50 for both fighters. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC. Any references to the “UFC,” or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Zuffa and Kalshi.
PolymarketThis market will resolve to "Jaden Ortega" if Jaden Ortega is officially declared the winner of the fight against Alvi Dasuyev at Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 7, scheduled for September 22, 2026. It will resolve to "Alvi Dasuyev" if Alvi Dasuyev is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 6, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
The last available prices are Alvi Dasuyev: 99.5¢ on Kalshi, 69.5¢ on Polymarket, 76.8¢ on ProphetX; Jaden Ortega: 0.5¢ on Kalshi, 30.5¢ on Polymarket, 33.2¢ on ProphetX. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
The largest price difference shown across venues is 32.7 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.
For example, Alvi Dasuyev at 81.9¢ implies about a 81.9% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.