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Live prediction market odds for Lawrence Lui vs. Hector Santiago. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and ProphetX.

Browse historical results
Kalshi

Kalshi

4.9
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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket / ProphetX

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Lawrence Lui vs. Hector Santiago

2026-08-29

Best price · tap to trade

Lawrence Lui77¢1.30xPolymarket USHector Santiago26¢3.85xProphetX
Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds

About This Market

Traders give Lawrence Lui about a 51.9% chance. Hector Santiago follows at 75.1%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, and ProphetX. The largest cross-platform price difference is 79.4 percentage points.

Traders give Lawrence Lui about a 51.9% chance. Hector Santiago follows at 75.1%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, and ProphetX. The largest cross-platform price difference is 79.4 percentage points.

Lawrence Lui vs. Hector Santiago — UFC fight scheduled for 2026-08-29. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

4 platforms

Moneyline

OutcomeConsensus
Kalshi
Polymarket US
Polymarket
ProphetX
Best price
HS
Hector SantiagoARB
26%
Kalshi100¢
—
—
ProphetX26¢
ProphetX3.79x26¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
99.0%0¢100¢0¢100¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
—99¢——1¢
PolymarketPolymarket
—100¢——0¢
ProphetXProphetX
26.4%26¢26¢80¢80¢
LL
Lawrence LuiARB
78%
Kalshi100¢
Polymarket US77¢
—
ProphetX80¢
Polymarket US1.30x77¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%0¢100¢0¢100¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
76.0%76¢77¢23¢24¢
ProphetXProphetX
79.5%80¢80¢26¢26¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarketProphetXProphetX

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Method of Victory

OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
HD
Hector de Sousa Santiago by KO/TKO/DQ
single venue
Kalshi100¢
—
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
100.0%0¢100¢0¢100¢
HD
Hector de Sousa Santiago by Submission
single venue
Kalshi100¢
—
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
100.0%0¢100¢0¢100¢
DC
Draw/No Contest
single venue
Kalshi100¢
—
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
100.0%0¢100¢0¢100¢
LL
Lawrence Lui by Decision
single venue
Kalshi100¢
—
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
100.0%0¢100¢0¢100¢
LL
Lawrence Lui by KO/TKO/DQ
single venue
Kalshi100¢
—
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
100.0%0¢100¢0¢100¢
LL
Lawrence Lui by Submission
single venue
Kalshi100¢
—
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
100.0%0¢100¢0¢100¢
HD
Hector de Sousa Santiago by Decision
single venue
Kalshi100¢
—
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
100.0%0¢100¢0¢100¢
FW
Fight won by KO/TKO: Yes
single venue100%
—
Polymarket100¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
100.0%100¢100¢0¢0¢
FW
Fight won by submission: No
single venue
—
—
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
—100¢——0¢
LT
Lui to win by KO/TKO: No
single venue
—
—
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
—100¢——0¢
ST
Santiago to win by KO/TKO: Yes
single venue100%
—
Polymarket100¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
100.0%100¢100¢0¢0¢
LT
Lui to win by KO/TKO: Yes
—
—
Polymarket1000.00x0¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
FW
Fight won by submission: Yes
—
—
Polymarket1000.00x0¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
FW
Fight won by KO/TKO: No
single venue
—
—
Polymarket1000.00x0¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
—0¢—100¢100¢
ST
Santiago to win by KO/TKO: No
single venue
—
—
Polymarket1000.00x0¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
—0¢—100¢100¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarket

Round of Victory

OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
HD
Hector de Sousa Santiago to win in Round 2
single venue
Kalshi100¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
100.0%0¢100¢0¢100¢
LL
Lawrence Lui to win in Round 2
single venue
Kalshi100¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
100.0%0¢100¢0¢100¢
LL
Lawrence Lui to win in Round 1
single venue
Kalshi100¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
100.0%0¢100¢0¢100¢
D/
Decision / Draw / No Contest
single venue
Kalshi100¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
100.0%0¢100¢0¢100¢
HD
Hector de Sousa Santiago to win in Round 1
single venue
Kalshi100¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
100.0%0¢100¢0¢100¢
LL
Lawrence Lui to win in Round 3
single venue
Kalshi100¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
100.0%0¢100¢0¢100¢
HD
Hector de Sousa Santiago to win in Round 3
single venue
Kalshi100¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
100.0%0¢100¢0¢100¢
KalshiKalshi

Total Rounds

Best price
Over 1.5 Rounds
Polymarket1¢
Polymarket111.11x1¢
Under 1.5 Rounds
Polymarket99¢

Goes the Distance

Fight to Go the Distance?
YESPolymarket0¢
NOPolymarket100¢

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oracle
ProphetXProphetX
ProphetX Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread79.4%
Platforms4
Candidates2
Leader

Lawrence Lui

51.9% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Lawrence Lui vs. Hector Santiago

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US and ProphetX.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Lawrence Lui wins the Lui vs de Sousa Santiago professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the Lui vs de Sousa Santiago professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 29, 2026. If this fight is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled fight has finished (within two weeks). If the fight is declared a tie or no contest, the market will resolve to 50/50 for both fighters. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC. Any references to the “UFC,” or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Zuffa and Kalshi.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Lawrence Lui and Hector Santiago at UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song, scheduled for August 29, 2026, ends by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 12, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oracle
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to the winner of the Lawrence Lui vs Hector Santiago UFC fight scheduled for August 29 at 3:00AM ET. If the fight ends in a draw or is declared a no contest, the market will settle to $0.50. If the fight is cancelled before the opening bell, the market will settle to the last fair market price. If the fight is not held within two weeks of the originally scheduled date, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from UFC.

ProphetXProphetX
Primary Rule

Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules

Resolution Oracles
ProphetX Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Lawrence Lui vs. Hector Santiago prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Lawrence Lui vs. Hector Santiago odds?

The latest available prices are Lawrence Lui: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.1¢ on Polymarket, 79.5¢ on ProphetX, 76.0¢ on Polymarket US; Hector Santiago: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 99.9¢ on Polymarket, 26.4¢ on ProphetX, 99.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Why do Lawrence Lui vs. Hector Santiago odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 79.4 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do Lawrence Lui vs. Hector Santiago prediction market payouts work?

For example, Lawrence Lui at 51.9¢ implies about a 51.9% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading.

No price history available