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Live prediction market odds for Paris Moran vs. Marcos Degli. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and ProphetX.

Browse historical results
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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket / ProphetX

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Marcos Degli Wins: Paris Moran vs. Marcos Degli

Resolved 2026-09-22

This market resolved on 2026-09-22. Marcos Degli was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.

About This Market

Paris Moran vs.

Paris Moran vs. Marcos Degli: UFC fight held on 2026-09-22. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds
Loading 30D data…

Final Closing Odds

3 platforms
Candidate
Kalshi
Polymarket
ProphetX
Moran to win by KO/TKO: No
—91%—
Marcos DegliWINNER
99%100%83%
Fight to Go the Distance: No
—80%—
Under 2.5 Rounds
—69%—
Fight won by KO/TKO: Yes
—68%—
Over 0.5 Rounds
—67%—
Fight won by submission: No
—67%—
Degli to win by KO/TKO: Yes
—55%—
Under 1.5 Rounds
—54%—
Fight won by decision: Yes
—51%—
Fight won by decision: No
—50%—
Over 1.5 Rounds
—46%—
Degli to win by KO/TKO: No
—45%—
Fight won by KO/TKO: No
—35%—
Under 0.5 Rounds
—35%—
Over 2.5 Rounds
—32%—
Paris Moran
32%20%25%
Fight to Go the Distance: Yes
—22%—
Fight won by submission: Yes
—15%—
Moran to win by KO/TKO: Yes
—9%—
Decision / Draw / No Contest
———
Draw/No Contest
———
Marcos Degli by Decision
———
Marcos Degli by KO/TKO/DQ
———
Marcos Degli by Submission
———
Marcos Degli to win in Round 1
———
Marcos Degli to win in Round 2
———
Marcos Degli to win in Round 3
———
Paris Moran by Decision
———
Paris Moran by KO/TKO/DQ
———
Paris Moran by Submission
———
Paris Moran to win in Round 1
———
Paris Moran to win in Round 2
———
Paris Moran to win in Round 3
———

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oracle
ProphetXProphetX
ProphetX Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread16.6%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Winner

Marcos Degli

94.1% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Paris Moran vs. Marcos Degli

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and ProphetX.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Paris Moran wins the Degli vs Moran professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the Degli vs Moran professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 22, 2026. If this fight is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled fight has finished (within two weeks). If the fight is declared a tie or no contest, the market will resolve to 50/50 for both fighters. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC. Any references to the “UFC,” or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Zuffa and Kalshi.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve to "Paris Moran" if Paris Moran is officially declared the winner of the fight against Marcos Degli at Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 7, scheduled for September 22, 2026. It will resolve to "Marcos Degli" if Marcos Degli is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 6, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oracle
ProphetXProphetX
Primary Rule

Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules

Resolution Oracles
ProphetX Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Paris Moran vs. Marcos Degli prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.

What were the last available Paris Moran vs. Marcos Degli odds?

The last available prices are Marcos Degli: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 99.9¢ on Polymarket, 83.3¢ on ProphetX; Paris Moran: 31.5¢ on Kalshi, 19.5¢ on Polymarket, 25.4¢ on ProphetX. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.

Why do Paris Moran vs. Marcos Degli odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 16.6 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do Paris Moran vs. Marcos Degli prediction market payouts work?

For example, Marcos Degli at 94.1¢ implies about a 94.1% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.