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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket / ProphetX

Steven Asplund Wins: Steven Asplund vs. Guilherme Pat

Resolved 2026-08-08

This market resolved on 2026-08-08. Steven Asplund was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 92%.

About This Market

Steven Asplund vs.

Steven Asplund vs. Guilherme Pat — UFC fight held on 2026-08-08. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market Prices Compare Fees Before You Trade New to Polymarket?

Final Closing Odds

4 platforms

Candidate
Over 0.5 Rounds	—	—	100%	—
Over 1.5 Rounds	—	—	100%	—
Over 2.5 Rounds	—	—	100%	—
Asplund to win by KO/TKO: No	—	—	99%	—
Fight won by KO/TKO: No	—	—	99%	—
Pat to win by KO/TKO: No	—	—	99%	—
Fight to Go the Distance: Yes	—	—	92%	—
Steven AsplundWINNER	99%	96%	87%	29%
Asplund to win by KO/TKO: Yes	—	—	60%	—
Pat to win by KO/TKO: Yes	—	—	21%	—
Fight to Go the Distance: No	—	—	20%	—
Guilherme Pat	1%	4%	13%	72%
Fight won by KO/TKO: Yes	—	—	11%	—
Under 2.5 Rounds	—	—	1%	—
Under 0.5 Rounds	—	—	0%	—
Under 1.5 Rounds	—	—	0%	—
Decision / Draw / No Contest	100%	—	—	—
Draw/No Contest	100%	—	—	—
Fight won by submission: No	—	—	99%	—
Fight won by submission: Yes	—	—	99%	—
Guilherme Pat by Decision	100%	—	—	—
Guilherme Pat by KO/TKO/DQ	100%	—	—	—
Guilherme Pat by Submission	100%	—	—	—
Guilherme Pat to win in Round 1	100%	—	—	—
Guilherme Pat to win in Round 2	100%	—	—	—
Guilherme Pat to win in Round 3	100%	—	—	—
Steven Asplund by Decision	100%	—	—	—
Steven Asplund by KO/TKO/DQ	100%	—	—	—
Steven Asplund by Submission	100%	—	—	—
Steven Asplund to win in Round 1	100%	—	—	—
Steven Asplund to win in Round 2	100%	—	—	—
Steven Asplund to win in Round 3	100%	—	—	—

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US and ProphetX.

Rules for Candidate:

Kalshi

Primary Rule

If Steven Asplund wins the Asplund vs Pat professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the Asplund vs Pat professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 8, 2026. If this fight is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled fight has finished (within two weeks). If the fight is declared a tie or no contest, the market will resolve to 50/50 for both fighters. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC. Any references to the “UFC,” or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Zuffa and Kalshi.

Resolution Oracles

Kalshi Rules

Polymarket

Primary Rule

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Steven Asplund and Guilherme Pat at UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld, scheduled for August 8, 2026, goes the full scheduled number of rounds and the result is determined by the judges' scorecards. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Draws decided by the judges' scorecards after all scheduled rounds are completed will resolve "Yes." Technical decisions or technical draws declared before all rounds are completed will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 22, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Resolution Oracles

UMA Optimistic Oracle

Polymarket US

Primary Rule

Who will win the upcoming ufc event, scheduled for August 8 at 5:00PM ET, Steven Asplund or Guilherme Pat? In the case of a tie or draw, the instrument will settle at $0.50 per instrument. If the event is postponed, delayed, or rescheduled, the settlement date will be amended to the rescheduled date. If the rescheduled date is not within two weeks of the originally scheduled date, the instrument will settle at last-traded prices. If the event is rescheduled to an earlier date than originally scheduled, the settlement date will be the rescheduled date. If the event is canceled, the instrument will settle at last-traded prices. If the event concludes early, or is shortened or truncated, the outcome shall be the declared official result. If a participant retires after the event has commenced, the outcome shall be the declared official result. In the case of a withdrawal, walkover, forfeit, no-contest, or the removal of a participant before the event commences, the instrument will settle at last-traded prices.

ProphetX

Primary Rule

Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules

Resolution Oracles

ProphetX Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Steven Asplund vs. Guilherme Pat prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.

What were the last available Steven Asplund vs. Guilherme Pat odds?

The last available prices are Steven Asplund: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 87.0¢ on Polymarket, 29.0¢ on ProphetX, 96.0¢ on Polymarket US; Guilherme Pat: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 13.0¢ on Polymarket, 71.8¢ on ProphetX, 4.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.

Why do Steven Asplund vs. Guilherme Pat odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 70.8 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do Steven Asplund vs. Guilherme Pat prediction market payouts work?

For example, Steven Asplund at 70.7¢ implies about a 70.7% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.

Steven Asplund Wins: Steven Asplund vs. Guilherme Pat

About This Market

Price History

Steven Asplund Wins: Steven Asplund vs. Guilherme Pat

About This Market

Price History

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Steven Asplund Wins: Steven Asplund vs. Guilherme Pat

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Price History

Steven Asplund Wins: Steven Asplund vs. Guilherme Pat

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Price History

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Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: Steven Asplund vs. Guilherme Pat

Frequently Asked Questions