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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket US / Novig / Polymarket / ProphetX

Tommy McMillen Wins: Tommy McMillen vs. Marwan Rahiki

Resolved 2026-09-12

This market resolved on 2026-09-12. Tommy McMillen was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 66%.

About This Market

Tommy McMillen vs.

Tommy McMillen vs. Marwan Rahiki: UFC fight held on 2026-09-12. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market Prices Compare Fees Before You Trade New to Polymarket?

Final Closing Odds

5 platforms

Candidate
Decision / Draw / No Contest	100%	—	—	—	—
Tommy McMillen by Decision	100%	—	—	—	—
McMillen to win by KO/TKO: No	—	—	—	96%	—
Fight won by KO/TKO: No	—	—	—	95%	—
Fight won by submission: No	—	—	—	79%	—
Rahiki to win by KO/TKO: No	—	—	—	69%	—
Tommy McMillenWINNER	100%	60%	61%	100%	66%
Marwan Rahiki	1%	40%	40%	0%	44%
Marwan Rahiki to win in Round 2	31%	—	—	—	—
Marwan Rahiki to win in Round 1	20%	—	—	—	—
Marwan Rahiki to win in Round 3	7%	—	—	—	—
Marwan Rahiki by Decision	4%	—	—	—	—
Draw/No Contest	3%	—	—	—	—
Marwan Rahiki by KO/TKO/DQ	2%	—	—	—	—
Fight to Go the Distance: No	—	—	—	1%	—
Marwan Rahiki by Submission	1%	—	—	—	—
Tommy McMillen by KO/TKO/DQ	1%	—	—	—	—
Tommy McMillen by Submission	1%	—	—	—	—
Tommy McMillen to win in Round 1	1%	—	—	—	—
Tommy McMillen to win in Round 2	1%	—	—	—	—
Tommy McMillen to win in Round 3	1%	—	—	—	—
Fight to Go the Distance: Yes	—	—	—	—	—
Fight won by KO/TKO: Yes	—	—	—	—	—
Fight won by submission: Yes	—	—	—	—	—
McMillen to win by KO/TKO: Yes	—	—	—	—	—
Over 0.5 Rounds	—	—	—	—	—
Over 1.5 Rounds	—	—	—	—	—
Over 2.5 Rounds	—	—	—	—	—
Rahiki to win by KO/TKO: Yes	—	—	—	—	—
Under 0.5 Rounds	—	—	—	—	—
Under 1.5 Rounds	—	—	—	—	—
Under 2.5 Rounds	—	—	—	—	—

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Novig and Polymarket and Polymarket US and ProphetX.

Rules for Candidate:

Kalshi

Primary Rule

If Tommy McMillen wins the McMillen vs Rahiki professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the McMillen vs Rahiki professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026. If this fight is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled fight has finished (within two weeks). If the fight is declared a tie or no contest, the market will resolve to 50/50 for both fighters. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC. Any references to the “UFC,” or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Zuffa and Kalshi.

Resolution Oracles

Kalshi Rules

Novig

Primary Rule

Tommy McMillen in Marwan Rahiki @ Tommy McMillen (UFC); settled by Novig.

Edge Cases

If the contract cannot be settled on the stated outcome, Novig settles it at fair market value (FMV) instead of refunding it.

Polymarket

Primary Rule

This market will resolve to "Tommy McMillen" if Tommy McMillen is officially declared the winner of the fight against Marwan Rahiki at Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado, scheduled for September 12, 2026. It will resolve to "Marwan Rahiki" if Marwan Rahiki is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 26, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Resolution Oracles

UMA Optimistic Oracle

Polymarket US

Primary Rule

This market will settle to the winner of the Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki UFC fight scheduled for September 12 at 2:00PM ET. If the fight ends in a draw or is declared a no contest, the market will settle to $0.50. If the fight is cancelled before the opening bell, the market will settle to the last fair market price. If the fight is not held within two weeks of the originally scheduled date, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from UFC.

ProphetX

Primary Rule

Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules

Resolution Oracles

ProphetX Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Tommy McMillen vs. Marwan Rahiki prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Novig, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.

What were the last available Tommy McMillen vs. Marwan Rahiki odds?

The last available prices are Tommy McMillen: 99.5¢ on Kalshi, 99.9¢ on Polymarket, 65.7¢ on ProphetX, 60.0¢ on Polymarket US, 60.5¢ on Novig; Marwan Rahiki: 0.5¢ on Kalshi, 0.1¢ on Polymarket, 43.6¢ on ProphetX, 40.0¢ on Polymarket US, 39.5¢ on Novig. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.

Why do Tommy McMillen vs. Marwan Rahiki odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 43.5 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do Tommy McMillen vs. Marwan Rahiki prediction market payouts work?

For example, Tommy McMillen at 77.1¢ implies about a 77.1% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.

Tommy McMillen Wins: Tommy McMillen vs. Marwan Rahiki

About This Market

Price History

Tommy McMillen Wins: Tommy McMillen vs. Marwan Rahiki

About This Market

Price History

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Final Closing Odds

Resolution Oracles

Frequently Asked Questions

Tommy McMillen Wins: Tommy McMillen vs. Marwan Rahiki

About This Market

Price History

Tommy McMillen Wins: Tommy McMillen vs. Marwan Rahiki

About This Market

Price History

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Final Closing Odds

Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: Tommy McMillen vs. Marwan Rahiki

Frequently Asked Questions