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Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket / ProphetX

Xiao Long vs. Francesco Nuzzi

2026-08-29

Best price · tap to trade

Xiao Long1¢100.00x

Francesco Nuzzi37¢2.70x

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market Prices Compare Fees Before You Trade New to Polymarket?

Live Markets

4 platforms

Moneyline

OutcomeConsensus

Best price

Francesco NuzziARB

38%

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	99.0%	0¢	100¢	0¢	100¢
Polymarket US	39.0%	38¢	39¢	61¢	62¢
Polymarket	—	100¢			0¢
ProphetX	36.7%	37¢	37¢	68¢	68¢

Xiao LongARB

68%

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	1.0%	0¢	100¢	0¢	100¢
Polymarket US	—	0¢	1¢	99¢	100¢
ProphetX	67.7%	68¢	68¢	37¢	37¢

Kalshi

Polymarket US

Polymarket

ProphetX

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Method of Victory

OutcomeConsensus

Kalshi

Polymarket

Best price

Francesco Nuzzi by KO/TKO/DQ

single venue

100¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	100.0%	0¢	100¢	0¢	100¢

Francesco Nuzzi by Submission

single venue

100¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	100.0%	0¢	100¢	0¢	100¢

Draw/No Contest

single venue

100¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	100.0%	0¢	100¢	0¢	100¢

Francesco Nuzzi by Decision

single venue

100¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	100.0%	0¢	100¢	0¢	100¢

Xiao Long by Decision

single venue

100¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	100.0%	0¢	100¢	0¢	100¢

Xiao Long by Submission

single venue

100¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	100.0%	0¢	100¢	0¢	100¢

Xiao Long by KO/TKO/DQ

single venue

100¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	100.0%	0¢	100¢	0¢	100¢

Fight won by KO/TKO: Yes

single venue100%

100¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Polymarket	100.0%	100¢	100¢	0¢	0¢

Fight won by submission: No

single venue

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Polymarket	—	100¢			0¢

Long to win by KO/TKO: No

single venue

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Polymarket	—	100¢			0¢

Nuzzi to win by KO/TKO: Yes

single venue100%

100¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Polymarket	100.0%	100¢	100¢	0¢	0¢

Nuzzi to win by KO/TKO: No

single venue

1000.00x0¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Polymarket	—	0¢		100¢	100¢

Long to win by KO/TKO: Yes

1000.00x0¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask

Fight won by submission: Yes

1000.00x0¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask

Fight won by KO/TKO: No

single venue

1000.00x0¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Polymarket	—	0¢		100¢	100¢

Kalshi

Polymarket

Round of Victory

OutcomeConsensus

Kalshi

Francesco Nuzzi to win in Round 1

single venue

100¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	100.0%	0¢	100¢	0¢	100¢

Xiao Long to win in Round 1

single venue

100¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	100.0%	0¢	100¢	0¢	100¢

Xiao Long to win in Round 2

single venue

100¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	100.0%	0¢	100¢	0¢	100¢

Xiao Long to win in Round 3

single venue

100¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	100.0%	0¢	100¢	0¢	100¢

Decision / Draw / No Contest

single venue

100¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	100.0%	0¢	100¢	0¢	100¢

Francesco Nuzzi to win in Round 2

single venue

100¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	100.0%	0¢	100¢	0¢	100¢

Francesco Nuzzi to win in Round 3

single venue

100¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	100.0%	0¢	100¢	0¢	100¢

Kalshi

Total Rounds

Best price

Over 0.5 Rounds

0¢

1000.00x0¢

Under 0.5 Rounds

100¢

Goes the Distance

Fight to Go the Distance?

YES

0¢

100¢

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US and ProphetX.

Rules for Candidate:

Kalshi

Primary Rule

If Xiao Long wins the Long vs Nuzzi professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the Long vs Nuzzi professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 29, 2026. If this fight is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled fight has finished (within two weeks). If the fight is declared a tie or no contest, the market will resolve to 50/50 for both fighters. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC. Any references to the “UFC,” or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Zuffa and Kalshi.

Resolution Oracles

Kalshi Rules

Polymarket

Primary Rule

This market will resolve to "Xiao Long" if Xiao Long is officially declared the winner of the fight against Francesco Nuzzi at UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song, scheduled for August 29, 2026. It will resolve to "Francesco Nuzzi" if Francesco Nuzzi is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 12, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Resolution Oracles

UMA Optimistic Oracle

Polymarket US

Primary Rule

This market will settle to the winner of the Xiao Long vs Francesco Nuzzi UFC fight scheduled for August 29 at 3:00AM ET. If the fight ends in a draw or is declared a no contest, the market will settle to $0.50. If the fight is cancelled before the opening bell, the market will settle to the last fair market price. If the fight is not held within two weeks of the originally scheduled date, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from UFC.

ProphetX

Primary Rule

Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules

Resolution Oracles

ProphetX Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Xiao Long vs. Francesco Nuzzi prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Xiao Long vs. Francesco Nuzzi odds?

The latest available prices are Xiao Long: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.1¢ on Polymarket, 67.7¢ on ProphetX, 1.0¢ on Polymarket US; Francesco Nuzzi: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 99.9¢ on Polymarket, 36.7¢ on ProphetX, 39.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Why do Xiao Long vs. Francesco Nuzzi odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 67.6 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do Xiao Long vs. Francesco Nuzzi prediction market payouts work?

For example, Xiao Long at 22.9¢ implies about a 22.9% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading.

Xiao Long vs. Francesco Nuzzi

Xiao Long vs. Francesco Nuzzi

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About This Market

Price History

Live Markets

Moneyline

Method of Victory

Round of Victory

Total Rounds

Goes the Distance

Smart Trade Router

Resolution Oracles

Frequently Asked Questions

Xiao Long vs. Francesco Nuzzi

Xiao Long vs. Francesco Nuzzi

Related Markets

Instituto (Córdoba) vs. Independiente

Offensive Player of the Year Winner?

Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Esther Adeshina vs. Joody Elkady

Preston Brown vs. Claude ISHIMWE

Related Markets

Instituto (Córdoba) vs. Independiente

Offensive Player of the Year Winner?

Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Esther Adeshina vs. Joody Elkady

Preston Brown vs. Claude ISHIMWE

About This Market

Price History

Live Markets

Moneyline

Method of Victory

Round of Victory

Smart Trade Router

Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: Xiao Long vs. Francesco Nuzzi

Frequently Asked Questions