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Kalshi / Polymarket

United States vs. Türkiye

World Cup·2026-06-25

Best price · tap to trade

United States55¢1.82x

Türkiye25¢4.00x

Draw22¢4.55x

About This Market

Traders give United States about a 55.0% chance. Türkiye follows at 25.0% and Draw follows at 22.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 74.0 percentage points.

United States vs. Türkiye — FIFA World Cup game scheduled for 2026-06-25. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market Prices Compare Fees Before You Trade New to Polymarket?

Live Markets

2 platforms

Moneyline

OutcomeConsensus

Kalshi

Polymarket

Best price

United States

55%

100¢

55¢

1.82x55¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	1.0%	0¢	100¢	0¢	100¢
Polymarket	55.0%	54¢	55¢	45¢	46¢

Türkiye

25%

100¢

25¢

4.00x25¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	99.0%	0¢	100¢	0¢	100¢
Polymarket	25.0%	24¢	25¢	75¢	76¢

Draw

22%

100¢

22¢

4.55x22¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	1.0%	0¢	100¢	0¢	100¢
Polymarket	22.0%	21¢	22¢	78¢	79¢

Kalshi

Polymarket

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Rules for Candidate:

Kalshi

Primary Rule

If Turkiye wins the Turkiye vs USA professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 25, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the Turkiye vs USA professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 25, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties). If the game ends in a tie, the market called "Tie" resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. This market and these products have not been endorsed by FIFA. Any references to "FIFA", the "FIFA World Cup," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between FIFA and Kalshi.

Resolution Oracles

Kalshi Rules

Polymarket

Primary Rule

In the upcoming game, scheduled for June 25, 2026 If Türkiye wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Resolution Oracles

UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the United States vs. Türkiye prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest United States vs. Türkiye odds?

The latest available prices are United States: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 55.0¢ on Polymarket; Türkiye: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 25.0¢ on Polymarket; Draw: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 22.0¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Why do United States vs. Türkiye odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 74.0 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do United States vs. Türkiye prediction market payouts work?

For example, United States at 55.0¢ implies about a 55.0% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading.

United States vs. Türkiye

About This Market

United States vs. Türkiye

About This Market

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Smart Trade Router

Resolution Oracles

Frequently Asked Questions

United States vs. Türkiye

About This Market

United States vs. Türkiye

About This Market

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Price History

Live Markets

Moneyline

Smart Trade Router

Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: United States vs. Türkiye

Frequently Asked Questions