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Live prediction market odds for Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Kalshi

Kalshi

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket

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Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy

2026-09-20

Best price · tap to trade

Arman Tsarukyan70¢1.43xKalshiMauricio Ruffy31¢3.23xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Arman Tsarukyan about a 70.3% chance. Mauricio Ruffy follows at 30.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.0 percentage points.

Traders give Arman Tsarukyan about a 70.3% chance. Mauricio Ruffy follows at 30.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.0 percentage points.

Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy: UFC fight scheduled for 2026-09-20. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Resolved Sep 29

Final odds
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms

Moneyline

OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
AT
Arman Tsarukyan
70%
Kalshi70¢
Polymarket71¢
Kalshi1.44x70¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
69.0%68¢70¢30¢32¢
PolymarketPolymarket
70.0%69¢71¢29¢31¢
MR
Mauricio Ruffy
29%
Kalshi31¢
Polymarket29¢
Kalshi3.23x31¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
30.0%29¢31¢69¢71¢
PolymarketPolymarket
28.0%27¢29¢71¢73¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Method of Victory

OutcomeConsensus
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
Arman Tsarukyan by SubmissionNo
Mauricio Ruffy by KO/TKO/DQNo
Arman Tsarukyan by KO/TKO/DQYes
Arman Tsarukyan by DecisionNo
Mauricio Ruffy by DecisionNo
Mauricio Ruffy by SubmissionNo
Draw/No ContestNo
FW
Fight won by decision: No
single venue74%
Polymarket75¢
Polymarket1.33x75¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
74.0%73¢75¢25¢27¢
TT
Tsarukyan to win by KO/TKO: No
single venue68%
Polymarket69¢
Polymarket1.45x69¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
68.0%67¢69¢31¢33¢
RT
Ruffy to win by KO/TKO: No
single venue68%
Polymarket69¢
Polymarket1.45x69¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
68.0%67¢69¢31¢33¢
FW
Fight won by submission: No
single venue61%
Polymarket62¢
Polymarket1.61x62¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
61.0%60¢62¢38¢40¢
FW
Fight won by KO/TKO: No
single venue54%
Polymarket55¢
Polymarket1.82x55¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
54.0%53¢55¢45¢47¢
FW
Fight won by KO/TKO: Yes
single venue44%
Polymarket45¢
Polymarket2.22x45¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
44.0%43¢45¢55¢57¢
FW
Fight won by submission: Yes
single venue37%
Polymarket38¢
Polymarket2.63x38¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
37.0%36¢38¢62¢64¢
RT
Ruffy to win by KO/TKO: Yes
single venue30%
Polymarket31¢
Polymarket3.23x31¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
30.0%29¢31¢69¢71¢
TT
Tsarukyan to win by KO/TKO: Yes
single venue30%
Polymarket31¢
Polymarket3.23x31¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
30.0%29¢31¢69¢71¢
FW
Fight won by decision: Yes
single venue24%
Polymarket25¢
Polymarket4.00x25¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
24.0%23¢25¢75¢77¢
PolymarketPolymarket

Round of Victory

Decision / Draw / No ContestNo
Arman Tsarukyan to win in Round 2No
Arman Tsarukyan to win in Round 1Yes
Arman Tsarukyan to win in Round 5No
Arman Tsarukyan to win in Round 3No
Arman Tsarukyan to win in Round 4No
Mauricio Ruffy to win in Round 1No
Mauricio Ruffy to win in Round 2No
Mauricio Ruffy to win in Round 4No
Mauricio Ruffy to win in Round 3No
Mauricio Ruffy to win in Round 5No

Total Rounds

Best price
Over 2.5 Rounds
Polymarket55¢
Polymarket1.82x55¢
Under 2.5 Rounds
Polymarket45¢
Polymarket2.22x45¢

Goes the Distance

Fight to Go the Distance?
YESPolymarket30¢
NOPolymarket70¢

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oracle
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.0%
Platforms2
Candidates2
Leader

Arman Tsarukyan

70.3% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Arman Tsarukyan wins the Tsarukyan vs Ruffy professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the Tsarukyan vs Ruffy professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 19, 2026. If this fight is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled fight has finished (within two weeks). If the fight is declared a tie or no contest, the market will resolve to 50/50 for both fighters. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC. Any references to the “UFC,” or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Zuffa and Kalshi.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve to "Arman Tsarukyan" if Arman Tsarukyan is officially declared the winner of the fight against Mauricio Ruffy at UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2, scheduled for September 19, 2026. It will resolve to "Mauricio Ruffy" if Mauricio Ruffy is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 3, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oracle

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy odds?

The latest available prices are Arman Tsarukyan: 69.5¢ on Kalshi, 71.0¢ on Polymarket; Mauricio Ruffy: 31.0¢ on Kalshi, 29.0¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Why do Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 2.0 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy prediction market payouts work?

For example, Arman Tsarukyan at 70.3¢ implies about a 70.3% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading.