About This Market
Islam Makhachev vs.
Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry — UFC fight held on 2026-08-16. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Live prediction market odds for Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Resolved 2026-08-16
This market resolved on 2026-08-16. Islam Makhachev was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
Islam Makhachev vs.
Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry — UFC fight held on 2026-08-16. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate | ![]() | ![]() |
|---|---|---|
Fight to Go the Distance: Yes | — | 100% |
Over 0.5 Rounds | — | 100% |
Over 1.5 Rounds | — | 100% |
Over 3.5 Rounds | — | 100% |
Over 4.5 Rounds | — | 100% |
Islam MakhachevWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Over 2.5 Rounds | — | 99% |
Decision / Draw / No Contest | 99% | — |
Islam Makhachev by Decision | 99% | — |
Fight won by KO/TKO: No | — | 95% |
Fight won by submission: No | — | 95% |
Makhachev to win by KO/TKO: No | — | 92% |
Machado Garry to win by KO/TKO: No | — | 62% |
Machado Garry to win by KO/TKO: Yes | — | 38% |
Makhachev to win by KO/TKO: Yes | — | 8% |
Fight won by KO/TKO: Yes | — | 5% |
Fight won by submission: Yes | — | 5% |
Draw/No Contest | 1% | — |
Ian Machado Garry by Decision | 1% | — |
Ian Machado Garry by KO/TKO/DQ | 1% | — |
Ian Machado Garry by Submission | 1% | — |
Ian Machado Garry to win in Round 1 | 1% | — |
Ian Machado Garry to win in Round 2 | 1% | — |
Ian Machado Garry to win in Round 3 | 1% | — |
Ian Machado Garry to win in Round 4 | 1% | — |
Ian Machado Garry to win in Round 5 | 1% | — |
Islam Makhachev by KO/TKO/DQ | 1% | — |
Islam Makhachev by Submission | 1% | — |
Islam Makhachev to win in Round 1 | 1% | — |
Islam Makhachev to win in Round 2 | 1% | — |
Islam Makhachev to win in Round 3 | 1% | — |
Islam Makhachev to win in Round 4 | 1% | — |
Islam Makhachev to win in Round 5 | 1% | — |
Under 2.5 Rounds | — | 1% |
Ian Machado Garry | 1% | 0% |
Fight to Go the Distance: No | — | 0% |
Under 0.5 Rounds | — | 0% |
Under 1.5 Rounds | — | 0% |
Under 3.5 Rounds | — | 0% |
Under 4.5 Rounds | — | 0% |
Islam Makhachev
99.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Islam Makhachev wins the Makhachev vs Garry professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Makhachev vs Garry professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 15, 2026. If this fight is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled fight has finished (within two weeks). If the fight is declared a tie or no contest, the market will resolve to 50/50 for both fighters. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC. Any references to the “UFC,” or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Zuffa and Kalshi.
PolymarketThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Islam Makhachev and Ian Machado Garry at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026, goes the full scheduled number of rounds and the result is determined by the judges' scorecards. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Draws decided by the judges' scorecards after all scheduled rounds are completed will resolve "Yes." Technical decisions or technical draws declared before all rounds are completed will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
The last available prices are Islam Makhachev: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 99.9¢ on Polymarket; Ian Machado Garry: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.1¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
The largest price difference shown across venues is 0.9 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.
For example, Islam Makhachev at 99.5¢ implies about a 99.5% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.