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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket / ProphetX

Jalin Turner Wins: Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes

Resolved 2026-08-15

This market resolved on 2026-08-15. Jalin Turner was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 79%.

About This Market

Jalin Turner vs.

Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes — UFC fight held on 2026-08-15. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market Prices Compare Fees Before You Trade New to Polymarket?

Final Closing Odds

4 platforms

Candidate
Fight won by KO/TKO: Yes	—	—	100%	—
Turner to win by KO/TKO: Yes	—	—	100%	—
Fight to Go the Distance: No	—	—	99%	—
Fernandes to win by KO/TKO: No	—	—	96%	—
Over 0.5 Rounds	—	—	92%	—
Fight won by submission: No	—	—	80%	—
Under 2.5 Rounds	—	—	70%	—
Jalin TurnerWINNER	99%	52%	100%	58%
Over 1.5 Rounds	—	—	50%	—
Under 1.5 Rounds	—	—	50%	—
Kauê Fernandes	1%	48%	0%	51%
Over 2.5 Rounds	—	—	30%	—
Fight won by submission: Yes	—	—	20%	—
Under 0.5 Rounds	—	—	8%	—
Fernandes to win by KO/TKO: Yes	—	—	4%	—
Fight to Go the Distance: Yes	—	—	1%	—
Fight won by KO/TKO: No	—	—	0%	—
Turner to win by KO/TKO: No	—	—	0%	—

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US and ProphetX.

Rules for Candidate:

Kalshi

Primary Rule

If Kaue Fernandes wins the Turner vs Fernandes professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the Turner vs Fernandes professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 15, 2026. If this fight is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled fight has finished (within two weeks). If the fight is declared a tie or no contest, the market will resolve to 50/50 for both fighters. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC. Any references to the “UFC,” or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Zuffa and Kalshi.

Resolution Oracles

Kalshi Rules

Polymarket

Primary Rule

This market will resolve to "Jalin Turner" if Jalin Turner is officially declared the winner of the fight against Kauê Fernandes at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026. It will resolve to "Kauê Fernandes" if Kauê Fernandes is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Resolution Oracles

UMA Optimistic Oracle

Polymarket US

Primary Rule

Who will win the upcoming ufc event, scheduled for August 15 at 7:00PM ET, Jalin Turner or Kaue Fernandes? In the case of a tie or draw, the instrument will settle at $0.50 per instrument. If the event is postponed, delayed, or rescheduled, the settlement date will be amended to the rescheduled date. If the rescheduled date is not within two weeks of the originally scheduled date, the instrument will settle at last-traded prices. If the event is rescheduled to an earlier date than originally scheduled, the settlement date will be the rescheduled date. If the event is canceled, the instrument will settle at last-traded prices. If the event concludes early, or is shortened or truncated, the outcome shall be the declared official result. If a participant retires after the event has commenced, the outcome shall be the declared official result. In the case of a withdrawal, walkover, forfeit, no-contest, or the removal of a participant before the event commences, the instrument will settle at last-traded prices.

ProphetX

Primary Rule

Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules

Resolution Oracles

ProphetX Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.

What were the last available Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes odds?

The last available prices are Jalin Turner: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 99.9¢ on Polymarket, 58.1¢ on ProphetX, 52.0¢ on Polymarket US; Kauê Fernandes: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.1¢ on Polymarket, 51.0¢ on ProphetX, 48.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.

Why do Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 50.9 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes prediction market payouts work?

For example, Jalin Turner at 77.3¢ implies about a 77.3% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.

Jalin Turner Wins: Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes

About This Market

Price History

Jalin Turner Wins: Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes

About This Market

Price History

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Final Closing Odds

Resolution Oracles

Frequently Asked Questions

Jalin Turner Wins: Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes

About This Market

Price History

Jalin Turner Wins: Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes

About This Market

Price History

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Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes

Frequently Asked Questions