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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket

Jalin Turner Wins: Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes

Resolved 2026-08-16

This market resolved on 2026-08-16. Jalin Turner was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.

About This Market

Jalin Turner vs.

Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes — UFC fight held on 2026-08-16. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market Prices Compare Fees Before You Trade New to Polymarket?

Final Closing Odds

2 platforms

Candidate
Fight won by KO/TKO: Yes	—	100%
Turner to win by KO/TKO: Yes	—	100%
Jalin TurnerWINNER	99%	100%
Fight to Go the Distance: No	—	99%
Jalin Turner by KO/TKO/DQ	99%	—
Jalin Turner to win in Round 1	99%	—
Fernandes to win by KO/TKO: No	—	96%
Over 0.5 Rounds	—	92%
Fight won by submission: No	—	80%
Under 2.5 Rounds	—	70%
Over 1.5 Rounds	—	50%
Under 1.5 Rounds	—	50%
Over 2.5 Rounds	—	30%
Fight won by submission: Yes	—	20%
Under 0.5 Rounds	—	8%
Fernandes to win by KO/TKO: Yes	—	4%
Draw/No Contest	2%	—
Kaue Fernandes to win in Round 3	2%	—
Decision / Draw / No Contest	1%	—
Fight to Go the Distance: Yes	—	1%
Jalin Turner by Decision	1%	—
Jalin Turner by Submission	1%	—
Jalin Turner to win in Round 2	1%	—
Jalin Turner to win in Round 3	1%	—
Kaue Fernandes by Decision	1%	—
Kaue Fernandes by KO/TKO/DQ	1%	—
Kaue Fernandes by Submission	1%	—
Kaue Fernandes to win in Round 1	1%	—
Kaue Fernandes to win in Round 2	1%	—
Kauê Fernandes	1%	0%
Fight won by KO/TKO: No	—	0%
Turner to win by KO/TKO: No	—	0%

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Rules for Candidate:

Kalshi

Primary Rule

If Kaue Fernandes wins the Turner vs Fernandes professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the Turner vs Fernandes professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 15, 2026. If this fight is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled fight has finished (within two weeks). If the fight is declared a tie or no contest, the market will resolve to 50/50 for both fighters. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC. Any references to the “UFC,” or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Zuffa and Kalshi.

Resolution Oracles

Kalshi Rules

Polymarket

Primary Rule

This market will resolve to "Jalin Turner" if Jalin Turner is officially declared the winner of the fight against Kauê Fernandes at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026. It will resolve to "Kauê Fernandes" if Kauê Fernandes is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Resolution Oracles

UMA Optimistic Oracle

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.

What were the last available Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes odds?

The last available prices are Jalin Turner: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 99.9¢ on Polymarket; Kauê Fernandes: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.1¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.

Why do Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 0.9 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes prediction market payouts work?

For example, Jalin Turner at 99.5¢ implies about a 99.5% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.

Jalin Turner Wins: Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes

About This Market

Price History

Jalin Turner Wins: Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes

About This Market

Price History

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Frequently Asked Questions

Jalin Turner Wins: Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes

About This Market

Price History

Jalin Turner Wins: Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes

About This Market

Price History

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Market Rulebook: Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes

Frequently Asked Questions