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Live prediction market odds for Junior Tafa vs. Ce Liu. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

Browse historical results
Kalshi

Kalshi

4.9
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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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Junior Tafa vs. Ce Liu

2026-08-29

Best price · tap to trade

Ce Liu94¢1.06xPolymarket USJunior Tafa59¢1.69xPolymarket US
Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Resolved Sep 29

Final odds

About This Market

Traders give Ce Liu about a 71.5% chance. Junior Tafa follows at 28.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 76.0 percentage points.

Traders give Ce Liu about a 71.5% chance. Junior Tafa follows at 28.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 76.0 percentage points.

Junior Tafa vs. Ce Liu — UFC fight scheduled for 2026-08-29. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms

Moneyline

OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
JT
Junior Tafa
29%
Kalshi100¢
Polymarket US59¢
Polymarket50¢
Polymarket US1.69x59¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
83.0%0¢100¢0¢100¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
7.0%6¢59¢41¢94¢
PolymarketPolymarket
50.0%49¢50¢50¢51¢
CL
Ce Liu
72%
Kalshi100¢
Polymarket US94¢
Polymarket51¢
Polymarket US1.06x94¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
82.0%0¢100¢0¢100¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
93.0%41¢94¢6¢59¢
PolymarketPolymarket
50.0%50¢51¢49¢50¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Method of Victory

Fight won by KO/TKO?
YESPolymarket51¢
NOPolymarket50¢
Fight won by submission?
YESPolymarket51¢
NOPolymarket51¢
Liu to win by KO/TKO?
YESPolymarket50¢
NOPolymarket51¢
Tafa to win by KO/TKO?
YESPolymarket50¢
NOPolymarket51¢

Total Rounds

Best price
Over 0.5 Rounds
Polymarket51¢
Polymarket1.96x51¢
Under 0.5 Rounds
Polymarket51¢
Polymarket1.96x51¢

Goes the Distance

Fight to Go the Distance?
YESPolymarket51¢
NOPolymarket51¢

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oracle
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread76.0%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Ce Liu

71.5% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Junior Tafa vs. Ce Liu

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If CE Liu wins the Liu vs Tafa professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the Liu vs Tafa professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 29, 2026. If this fight is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled fight has finished (within two weeks). If the fight is declared a tie or no contest, the market will resolve to 50/50 for both fighters. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC. Any references to the “UFC,” or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Zuffa and Kalshi.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Junior Tafa and Ce Liu at UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song, scheduled for August 29, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 12, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oracle
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to the winner of the Liu Ce vs Junior Tafa UFC fight scheduled for August 29 at 3:00AM ET. If the fight ends in a draw or is declared a no contest, the market will settle to $0.50. If the fight is cancelled before the opening bell, the market will settle to the last fair market price. If the fight is not held within two weeks of the originally scheduled date, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from UFC.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Junior Tafa vs. Ce Liu prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Junior Tafa vs. Ce Liu odds?

The latest available prices are Ce Liu: 82.0¢ on Kalshi, 50.0¢ on Polymarket, 93.0¢ on Polymarket US; Junior Tafa: 83.0¢ on Kalshi, 50.0¢ on Polymarket, 7.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Why do Junior Tafa vs. Ce Liu odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 76.0 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do Junior Tafa vs. Ce Liu prediction market payouts work?

For example, Ce Liu at 71.5¢ implies about a 71.5% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading.

No price history available