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Live prediction market odds for Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and ProphetX.

Browse historical results
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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket / ProphetX

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Lucas Fernando Wins: Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias

Resolved 2026-08-15

This market resolved on 2026-08-15. Lucas Fernando was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 96%.

About This Market

Lucas Fernando vs.

Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias — UFC fight held on 2026-08-15. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds
Loading 30D data…

Final Closing Odds

4 platforms
Candidate
Kalshi
Polymarket US
Polymarket
ProphetX
Fight won by KO/TKO: Yes
——100%—
Over 0.5 Rounds
——100%—
Over 1.5 Rounds
——100%—
Fernando to win by KO/TKO: Yes
——99%—
Fight to Go the Distance: No
——99%—
Under 2.5 Rounds
——98%—
Lucas FernandoWINNER
96%95%100%74%
Tobias to win by KO/TKO: No
——89%—
Fight won by submission: No
——81%—
Lucas Fernando to win in Round 3
74%———
Lucas Fernando by KO/TKO/DQ
51%———
Lucas Fernando by Decision
45%———
Fight won by submission: Yes
——19%—
Tobias to win by KO/TKO: Yes
——11%—
Rafael Tobias
6%5%0%30%
Lucas Fernando by Submission
3%———
Rafael Tobias by KO/TKO/DQ
3%———
Draw/No Contest
2%———
Over 2.5 Rounds
——2%—
Decision / Draw / No Contest
1%———
Fight to Go the Distance: Yes
——1%—
Lucas Fernando to win in Round 1
1%———
Rafael Tobias by Decision
1%———
Rafael Tobias by Submission
1%———
Rafael Tobias to win in Round 1
1%———
Rafael Tobias to win in Round 2
1%———
Rafael Tobias to win in Round 3
1%———
Fernando to win by KO/TKO: No
——1%—
Lucas Fernando to win in Round 2
1%———
Fight won by KO/TKO: No
——0%—
Under 0.5 Rounds
——0%—
Under 1.5 Rounds
——0%—

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oracle
ProphetXProphetX
ProphetX Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread30.2%
Platforms4
Candidates2
Winner

Lucas Fernando

91.2% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US and ProphetX.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Rafael Tobias wins the Tobias vs Fernando professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the Tobias vs Fernando professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 15, 2026. If this fight is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled fight has finished (within two weeks). If the fight is declared a tie or no contest, the market will resolve to 50/50 for both fighters. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC. Any references to the “UFC,” or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Zuffa and Kalshi.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Lucas Fernando and Rafael Tobias at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026, goes the full scheduled number of rounds and the result is determined by the judges' scorecards. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Draws decided by the judges' scorecards after all scheduled rounds are completed will resolve "Yes." Technical decisions or technical draws declared before all rounds are completed will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oracle
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to the winner of the Rafael Tobias vs Lucas Fernando UFC fight scheduled for August 15 at 5:30PM ET. If the fight ends in a draw or is declared a no contest, the market will settle to $0.50. If the fight is cancelled before the opening bell, the market will settle to the last fair market price. If the fight is not held within two weeks of the originally scheduled date, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from UFC.

ProphetXProphetX
Primary Rule

Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules

Resolution Oracles
ProphetX Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.

What were the last available Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias odds?

The last available prices are Lucas Fernando: 96.0¢ on Kalshi, 99.9¢ on Polymarket, 73.7¢ on ProphetX, 95.0¢ on Polymarket US; Rafael Tobias: 6.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.1¢ on Polymarket, 30.3¢ on ProphetX, 5.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.

Why do Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 30.2 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias prediction market payouts work?

For example, Lucas Fernando at 91.2¢ implies about a 91.2% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.

No price history available