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Live prediction market odds for Renato Moicano vs. Brian Ortega. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket

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Renato Moicano vs. Brian Ortega

2026-09-20

Best price · tap to trade

Renato Moicano64¢1.56xKalshiBrian Ortega36¢2.78xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Renato Moicano about a 57.5% chance. Brian Ortega follows at 42.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 13.0 percentage points.

Traders give Renato Moicano about a 57.5% chance. Brian Ortega follows at 42.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 13.0 percentage points.

Renato Moicano vs. Brian Ortega: UFC fight scheduled for 2026-09-20. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms

Moneyline

OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
RM
Renato MoicanoARB
57%
Kalshi64¢
Polymarket51¢
Kalshi1.56x64¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
63.0%62¢64¢36¢38¢
PolymarketPolymarket
50.0%49¢51¢49¢51¢
BO
Brian OrtegaARB
42%
Kalshi36¢
Polymarket49¢
Kalshi2.78x36¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
35.0%34¢36¢64¢66¢
PolymarketPolymarket
48.0%47¢49¢51¢53¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Method of Victory

Fight won by decision?
YESPolymarket51¢
NOPolymarket51¢
Moicano to win by KO/TKO?
YESPolymarket50¢
NOPolymarket49¢
Ortega to win by KO/TKO?
YESPolymarket49¢
NOPolymarket51¢
Fight won by KO/TKO?
YESPolymarket49¢
NOPolymarket51¢
Fight won by submission?
YESPolymarket49¢
NOPolymarket51¢

Total Rounds

Best price
Over 0.5 Rounds
Polymarket50¢
Polymarket2.00x50¢
Under 0.5 Rounds
Polymarket51¢
Polymarket1.96x51¢

Goes the Distance

Fight to Go the Distance?
YESPolymarket51¢
NOPolymarket51¢

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oracle
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread13.0%
Platforms2
Candidates2
Leader

Renato Moicano

57.5% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Renato Moicano vs. Brian Ortega

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Renato Moicano wins the Moicano vs Ortega professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the Moicano vs Ortega professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 19, 2026. If this fight is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled fight has finished (within two weeks). If the fight is declared a tie or no contest, the market will resolve to 50/50 for both fighters. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC. Any references to the “UFC,” or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Zuffa and Kalshi.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve to "Renato Moicano" if Renato Moicano is officially declared the winner of the fight against Brian Ortega at UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2, scheduled for September 19, 2026. It will resolve to "Brian Ortega" if Brian Ortega is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 3, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oracle

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Renato Moicano vs. Brian Ortega prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Renato Moicano vs. Brian Ortega odds?

The latest available prices are Renato Moicano: 64.0¢ on Kalshi, 51.0¢ on Polymarket; Brian Ortega: 36.0¢ on Kalshi, 49.0¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Why do Renato Moicano vs. Brian Ortega odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 13.0 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do Renato Moicano vs. Brian Ortega prediction market payouts work?

For example, Renato Moicano at 57.5¢ implies about a 57.5% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading.