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Live prediction market odds for Aryna Sabalenka vs. Nikola Bartunkova. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Kalshi

4.9
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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket

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Aryna Sabalenka vs. Nikola Bartunkova

WTA·2026-10-04

Best price · tap to trade

Aryna Sabalenka86¢1.16xKalshiNikola Bartunkova15¢6.67xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Aryna Sabalenka about a 84.8% chance. Nikola Bartunkova follows at 15.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.0 percentage points.

Traders give Aryna Sabalenka about a 84.8% chance. Nikola Bartunkova follows at 15.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.0 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the match between Aryna Sabalenka and Nikola Bartunkova on October 4, 2026. The market resolves based on the official outcome of the match, with odds fluctuating based on player performance and pre-match analyses leading up to the event date.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms

Moneyline

OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
AS
Aryna Sabalenka
85%
Kalshi86¢
Polymarket85¢
Kalshi1.16x86¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
85.5%85¢86¢14¢15¢
PolymarketPolymarket
84.0%84¢85¢15¢16¢
NB
Nikola Bartunkova
15%
Kalshi15¢
Polymarket16¢
Kalshi6.67x15¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
14.0%14¢15¢85¢86¢
PolymarketPolymarket
16.0%15¢16¢84¢85¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.0%
Platforms2
Candidates2
Leader

Aryna Sabalenka

84.8% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Nikola Bartunkova

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Aryna Sabalenka wins the Bartunkova vs Sabalenka professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Beijing Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the Bartunkova vs Sabalenka professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Beijing Round Of 32 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks). Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market refers to the tennis match between Nikola Bartunkova and Aryna Sabalenka in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 3, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nikola Bartunkova' if Nikola Bartunkova advances against Aryna Sabalenka. This market will resolve to 'Aryna Sabalenka' if Aryna Sabalenka advances against Nikola Bartunkova. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources

Frequently Asked Questions

What date is the match between Aryna Sabalenka and Nikola Bartunkova?

The match is scheduled for October 4, 2026. This date is crucial for determining the market's resolution.

How do odds change leading up to the match?

Odds can fluctuate based on player performance, injuries, and expert analyses as the match date approaches. Factors such as recent match outcomes and player form also influence the odds.

What determines the resolution of this market?

The market resolves based on the official result of the match between Aryna Sabalenka and Nikola Bartunkova. Any changes in player status or match conditions could impact the odds leading up to the event.

What does the Aryna Sabalenka vs. Nikola Bartunkova prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Aryna Sabalenka vs. Nikola Bartunkova odds?

The latest available prices are Aryna Sabalenka: 85.5¢ on Kalshi, 84.0¢ on Polymarket; Nikola Bartunkova: 14.0¢ on Kalshi, 16.0¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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