Bitcoin Up or Down
A new 15-minute window every quarter hour: Up if Bitcoin closes at or above its start price.
Sources and methodologyLive window
Live4:45 AM - 5:00 AM ESTBTC nowOKX
$68,985.20
To beatPrice to beatKalshi
$68,981.38
+$3.82 above the price to beat, Up is winning
4:45:30 AM4:46:00 AM
BTC from OKX index. Price to beat from Kalshi.
Last 24 hours
95 settled windows
36Up37.9%62.1%Down59
Running now ▲ 3 UpLongest Up run 5 windowsLongest Down run 6 windowsAverage move $151.77
Start (95)MoveResult
- 4:30 AM+$118.73Up
- 4:15 AM+$102.49Up
- 4:00 AM+$89.68Up
- 3:45 AM-$44.83Down
- 3:30 AM+$46.61Up
- 3:15 AM-$32.66Down
- 3:00 AM+$163.82Up
- 2:45 AM-$238.97Down
- 2:30 AM-$166.91Down
- 2:15 AM-$147.74Down
- 2:00 AM+$52.57Up
- 1:45 AM+$225.97Up
- 1:30 AM+$121.11Up
- 1:15 AM+$475.01Up
- 1:00 AM+$145.97Up
- 12:45 AM-$475.24Down
- 12:30 AM-$30.11Down
- 12:15 AM-$88.18Down
- 12:00 AM+$137.39Up
- 11:45 PM-$53.13Down
- 11:30 PM-$264.60Down
- 11:15 PM+$79.49Up
- 11:00 PM-$125.18Down
- 10:45 PM-$145.95Down
- 10:30 PM-$310.25Down
- 10:15 PM-$392.47Down
- 10:00 PM-$501.36Down
- 9:45 PM+$93.94Up
- 9:30 PM-$341.71Down
- 9:15 PM-$66.88Down
- 9:00 PM-$325.29Down
- 8:45 PM+$36.47Up
- 8:30 PM-$259.79Down
- 8:15 PM+$320.98Up
- 8:00 PM-$253.45Down
- 7:45 PM+$201.17Up
- 7:30 PM-$288.90Down
- 7:15 PM-$120.82Down
- 7:00 PM-$116.22Down
- 6:45 PM+$165.93Up
- 6:30 PM-$81.30Down
- 6:15 PM-$121.85Down
- 6:00 PM+$58.92Up
- 5:45 PM-$9.88Down
- 5:30 PM-$61.76Down
- 5:15 PM+$50.14Up
- 5:00 PM-$115.07Down
- 4:45 PM-$28.46Down
- 4:30 PM-$20.09Down
- 4:15 PM+$126.15Up
- 4:00 PM+$28.73Up
- 3:45 PM-$24.20Down
- 3:30 PM+$14.27Up
- 3:15 PM-$107.74Down
- 3:00 PM-$121.07Down
- 2:45 PM+$135.23Up
- 2:30 PM-$49.05Down
- 2:15 PM-$36.45Down
- 2:00 PM-$102.36Down
- 1:45 PM-$90.89Down
- 1:30 PM-$145.12Down
- 1:15 PM+$15.96Up
- 1:00 PM+$81.73Up
- 12:45 PM+$133.33Up
- 12:30 PM-$275.21Down
- 12:15 PM+$326.93Up
- 12:00 PM-$77.82Down
- 11:45 AM+$238.14Up
- 11:30 AM-$415.62Down
- 11:15 AM-$75.47Down
- 11:00 AM+$326.64Up
- 10:45 AM+$291.45Up
- 10:30 AM-$108.18Down
- 10:15 AM+$116.65Up
- 10:00 AM-$217.99Down
- 9:45 AM-$68.44Down
- 9:30 AM-$110.61Down
- 9:15 AM-$556.01Down
- 9:00 AM-$140.29Down
- 8:45 AM-$122.06Down
- 8:30 AM+$14.95Up
- 8:15 AM+$84.74Up
- 8:00 AM-$355.93Down
- 7:45 AM-$13.63Down
- 7:30 AM+$60.20Up
- 7:15 AM-$266.97Down
- 7:00 AM+$173.92Up
- 6:45 AM-$15.60Down
- 6:30 AM-$345.35Down
- 6:15 AM-$124.92Down
- 6:00 AM-$53.35Down
- 5:45 AM-$44.87Down
- 5:30 AM-$59.52Down
- 5:15 AM+$144.79Up
- 5:00 AM-$64.09Down
Past windows do not predict the next one.
Traders this window
4:45 AM - 5:00 AM EST
Profitable
135 wallets
57% Up43% Down
Losing
81 wallets
41% Up59% Down
4+ streak
15 wallets
40% Up60% Down
Every holder this window, grouped by 30-day 15m P&L. 2 wallets with no record left out.
218 traders in this window
| Trader | Stats | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xc389…d2281 win | 1 win | +$42.1K | ||
| 0x32ed…8ec3None | None | +$24.4K | ||
| 0xc2ad…40edNone | None | +$21.3K | ||
| 0x21f4…691dNone | None | +$20.6K | ||
| 0x3725…ad88None | None | +$18.5K | ||
| 0x576b…0cab1 win | 1 win | +$14.7K | ||
| 0x7e5d…c4c3None | None | +$14.6K | ||
| 0x57b8…82741 win | 1 win | +$14K | ||
| 0x502b…3b151 win | 1 win | +$11.2K | ||
| 0x5e60…e468None | None | +$10.9K | ||
| 0xb55f…64d4None | None | +$8,816 | ||
| 0x9d57…56eaNone | None | +$8,771 | ||
| 0xf70c…4e63None | None | +$8,230 | ||
| 0x6d2a…fbf3None | None | +$7,849 | ||
| 0x3615…8fdfNone | None | +$6,360 | ||
| 0xb958…f5132 wins | 2 wins | +$5,506 | ||
| 0xb5e7…da4c3 wins | 3 wins | +$5,282 | ||
| 0x1b58…6f115 wins | 5 wins | +$5,233 | ||
| 0xba67…4727None | None | +$5,215 | ||
| 0x80ef…e019None | None | +$4,776 |
15m P&L is each wallet's result on these BTC windows over the last 30 days: a track record, not a prediction.
Trade smarter
Buy where it's cheaper
Prices include fees. The cheaper venue is highlighted when it saves 1¢ to 5¢. The two venues settle the same way about 98% of the time.
Kalshi Polymarket Up 54¢ — Down 51¢ — Bid instead of buying at the ask
Kalshi charges no fee on a limit order.
Bid Saves Up 51¢ 3¢ Down 48¢ 3¢
Data and methodology
What you seeSource
Live window: time left, Up chance, Buy Up and Buy Down prices, volume, open interestKalshi's KXBTC15M market for the window
To beatKalshi's starting price: the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before the open
BTC now and the chart lineStreamed live from the feed each venue settles on: CF Benchmarks' BRTI for Kalshi, Chainlink for Polymarket. The chart before you opened the page, and any gap in the stream, is the OKX BTC-USD index, a reference price
Chart target and Up chance viewKalshi's starting price; Kalshi's Up bid and ask each minute, then live
History fair priceComputed by Prediction.com from each venue's own settled windows: Kalshi's Up bid and ask each minute, Polymarket's Up price each minute, and each window's result
Last 24 hours on Kalshi: results, moves, streaks and statsKalshi's settled results, which settle on CF Benchmarks' BRTI
Polymarket traders: side totals, holders, shares, average price, costEvery fill in the same window's Polymarket market, recorded by Prediction.com
15m P&L (30d)Computed by Prediction.com from those Polymarket fills and Polymarket's own results, which settle on Chainlink
Lifetime P&L (in the 15m P&L tooltip)Polymarket's P&L data for the wallet, across all its trading
Trade smarter: venue gap, limit orderKalshi's and Polymarket's live bids and asks for the window, and the taker fee both publish for these markets: 0.07 × price × (1 − price) a contract. Kalshi lists no maker fee on this series.
- Settlement
- Kalshi settles on the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before the open and before the close. BTC now streams live from the feed each venue settles on: BRTI on the Kalshi view, Chainlink on the Polymarket view. If the stream drops, it falls back to the OKX BTC-USD index, a reference price that can differ by a few dollars.
- Kalshi and Polymarket
- Polymarket runs the same 15-minute windows under the same rule but settles on Chainlink, so its result can differ from Kalshi in a window where Bitcoin barely moves.
- History fair price
- We look at past windows where Up had about the same price with about the same time left, and check how often Up actually won. If it won more often than its price suggested, the history fair price is higher than the price. If it won less often, it's lower. When there are only a few similar windows, we stay close to the live price. This shows what happened before, not a prediction.
- The chart
- The BTC line streams live from the venue's settlement feed: CF Benchmarks' BRTI for Kalshi, Chainlink for Polymarket. The stretch from before you opened the page, and any gap in the stream, is the OKX BTC-USD index each second, a reference price that can sit a few dollars away. Kalshi settles on a 60-second BRTI average, not the last value, so near the target the result can still land on the other side of the line. Up chance is the middle of Kalshi's Up bid and ask each minute, then live.
- The 24-hour board
- Each dot is one settled Kalshi window, oldest first. Streaks draws each run of Up or Down as a column and starts a new column when the result flips; By hour puts each hour's four windows top to bottom. Past windows do not predict the next one.
- Trade smarter
- These tips lower what a trade costs on whichever side you pick. The venue row highlights gaps of 1¢ to 5¢, fees included: in trades placed seconds apart on both venues, the cheaper one saved what it showed. Wider gaps came near the price to beat, where the venues settle on different feeds, and the saving did not hold. A limit order saves the fee and the spread only if it fills, and resting orders tend to fill when the price moves against them. The tables refresh every two seconds; a dash means a quote is missing or a venue isn't streaming.
- Polymarket positions and 15m P&L
- Net positions in the same window on Polymarket, built from every fill. A wallet on both sides is netted to the side it holds more of. 15m P&L adds up each wallet's settled result (shares times payout, less what it paid) on every 15-minute BTC window in the last 30 days. The Profitable and Losing bars count every holder in the window, not only the listed ones, by whether that 30-day result is above or below zero, and show how each group splits between Up and Down. A streak is how many windows in a row a wallet made money on, up to its latest settled one: the same Won and Lost as its full record. A window where it held both Up and Down locks in its result whatever happens, so it is not a win: hedged windows count toward 15m P&L but not toward wins, and like windows it sat out they break no streak. Buying a side that has all but won can build a long run of small wins, so read a streak next to the price paid. The streak bar counts holders on a run of four or more, and the tooltip shows how many of each wallet's last 20 windows won. A fair coin runs four in a row about 1 time in 16, so with hundreds of holders a few streaks are luck. In our records the most profitable wallets stayed profitable week to week, which is what makes the 30-day record worth reading. Hover a figure for windows traded and won and the wallet's lifetime Polymarket P&L. While the window is open, each holder's side is a Kalshi ticket for the same side of the same window, so you can copy a trader there. The live card features one holder: among wallets with a profitable 30-day record and a streak of three or more, the longest streak, with the bigger 30-day P&L breaking a tie.
- Coverage
- 15m P&L depends on our record of Polymarket trades. Each window is recomputed for an hour after it closes, so late trades and slow settlements are picked up; a window we failed to record in that hour would undercount the wallets in it.
How Bitcoin Up or Down Works
Bitcoin Up or Down asks one question about a short, fixed window: will Bitcoin finish at or above the price it started at? Each window lasts 15 minutes, and a new one opens every quarter hour. If Bitcoin closes at or above the start price (the price to beat), Up pays $1.00. If it closes below, Down pays $1.00. A tie goes to Up.
Both sides trade in cents between those two outcomes, so the price is the probability. Up at 62¢ means the market gives Bitcoin a 62% chance of finishing the window at or above its start. Early in a window that number sits near 50¢, because nobody knows where Bitcoin will be in 15 minutes. It moves faster the closer the window gets to its close: with a minute left and Bitcoin well above the price to beat, Up trades in the 90s.
Bitcoin Up or Down on Kalshi vs Polymarket
Kalshi and Polymarket both list 15-minute Bitcoin Up or Down markets on the same schedule and with the same rule. The difference is the Bitcoin price each one settles on, which is why this page tracks both.
| Detail | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Window length | 15 minutes | 15 minutes (5-minute, hourly and longer versions also listed) |
| Schedule | A new window every quarter hour | A new window every quarter hour |
| Resolves Up when | The close is at or above the start price | The close is at or above the start price |
| Settlement price | CF Benchmarks' BRTI, 60-second average | Chainlink BTC/USD data stream |
| Payout | $1 per winning contract | $1 per winning share |
| Venue | CFTC-regulated US exchange | Availability varies by country |
Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks' BRTI, averaged over the 60 seconds before the open and before the close. Polymarket settles on the Chainlink BTC/USD data stream. The two usually agree to within a few dollars, so almost every window settles the same way on both. The exception is a window where Bitcoin ends right next to its start price: there, one venue can call it Up and the other Down.
A Free Bitcoin Up or Down Tracker for Kalshi and Polymarket
Trading a 15-minute window usually means watching several screens at once: the venue, a Bitcoin chart and the other venue. This page puts what matters for the window open now in one free view, with no account needed, and when you are ready to trade, one click takes you to that side of the window on Kalshi or Polymarket.
- Trade in one click: Buy Up and Buy Down buttons open the live window on Kalshi or Polymarket, so you go from the price to your order without searching for the market.
- Live price vs price to beat: Bitcoin's live price against the window's start price, with a countdown to the close.
- Kalshi and Polymarket side by side: Up and Down prices on both venues for the same window, fees included, with the cheaper one highlighted.
- Settlement sources explained: Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks' BRTI and Polymarket on Chainlink, so a window that ends near its start can split.
- History fair price: How often Up won in past windows priced about the same with about the same time left, on each venue's own data.
- Polymarket trader tracking: Every wallet holding Up or Down this window, with stake, average price, 30-day P&L and winning streak, and a button to take the same side on Kalshi.
- Last 24 hours of results: Every settled window from the past day, its move and the current run of Ups or Downs.
- Cheaper execution: The cheaper venue for each side, fees included, one click away, and what a limit order saves over buying at the ask.
How to Read This Tracker
The Live window card shows the window open now: time left, the price to beat, Bitcoin's live price against it, the Up chance, and Buy Up and Buy Down prices. Switch it between Kalshi and Polymarket to see each venue's own price. The chart follows Bitcoin through the window with the price to beat drawn across it.
Last 24 hours is every window Kalshi settled in the past day: how many went Up and Down, the current streak, and the average move. Hover a window for its start and close. Traders this window lists who holds Up and who holds Down on Polymarket right now, with each wallet's 30-day profit on these 15-minute markets and its current run of winning windows.
Every number on the page and where it comes from is listed in Sources and methodology.
Tools & Resources
Crypto odds
Every matched Bitcoin, Ethereum and crypto market, priced across platforms.
Smart money feed
Large positions as they hit, by wallet track record.
Arbitrage scanner
Cross-platform price gaps wide enough to lock in both sides.
Prediction market API
Live prices, trades, order books and history across venues.
Odds converter
Cents, implied probability, American, decimal and fractional.
Bitcoin Up or Down: Frequently Asked Questions
What is Bitcoin Up or Down?+
Bitcoin Up or Down is a short prediction market on one question: will Bitcoin finish a fixed window at or above the price it started at? Up pays $1 if it does and Down pays $1 if it does not. Kalshi and Polymarket both run it in 15-minute windows, and the price of each side is the market's live probability of that result.
How often does a new Bitcoin Up or Down window open?+
Every 15 minutes, on the quarter hour, so up to 96 windows a day. Each window has its own start price, and the next one opens the moment the last one closes. The live card on this page always shows the window that is open right now.
What price does Kalshi use to settle Bitcoin Up or Down?+
Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real Time Index (BRTI), averaged over the 60 seconds before the window opens for the start price and the 60 seconds before it closes for the final price. The averaging means a single spike in the last second cannot decide the result on its own.
What price does Polymarket use to settle Bitcoin Up or Down?+
Polymarket settles its Up or Down markets on the Chainlink BTC/USD data stream, comparing the price at the end of the window with the price at the start. Same rule as Kalshi, different price source.
Can Kalshi and Polymarket settle the same window differently?+
Yes. BRTI and Chainlink are two different Bitcoin prices that usually sit within a few dollars of each other. In a window where Bitcoin ends very close to where it started, that gap can put one venue on Up and the other on Down.
What happens if Bitcoin closes exactly at the start price?+
The window resolves Up. On both Kalshi and Polymarket, Up means the close is at or above the start price, so a tie goes to Up.
Is Bitcoin up or down today?+
The 24-hour board on this page answers it window by window: every settled 15-minute result on Kalshi over the last day, how far Bitcoin moved in each, and the current run of Ups or Downs. The live card shows whether Bitcoin is above or below the price to beat in the window open now.
Do past windows predict the next one?+
No. Each window starts fresh from a new start price, and a run of Ups or Downs says nothing reliable about the next 15 minutes. Long streaks are expected by chance when there are this many windows a day.
Is there a winning Bitcoin Up or Down strategy?+
No strategy is guaranteed. The price you pay already reflects the market's view, trading fees come off every fill, and near the start price the result can turn on a few dollars. The trader stats on this page show who has made money on these windows over the last 30 days, which is a track record, not a forecast.
Where does the data on this page come from?+
The live window, prices and 24-hour results come from Kalshi. Holders, positions and trader P&L come from every fill in the same window on Polymarket. The live Bitcoin price streams from the feed each venue settles on, CF Benchmarks' BRTI for Kalshi and Chainlink for Polymarket, with the OKX BTC-USD index filling in the chart from before you opened the page and any gap in the stream. The full source table is in Sources and methodology on this page.
Is this Bitcoin Up or Down tracker free?+
Yes. Every panel on this page is free to use with no account: the live window on Kalshi and Polymarket, fee-included prices on both, the 24-hour results, history fair price and the Polymarket trader list.
What are the best tools for trading Bitcoin Up or Down?+
Most traders combine three things: a Bitcoin chart or exchange order book for the underlying price, a view of both venues side by side, and a fast way to get into the order. This page covers the last two in one free view: price to beat, countdown, Kalshi and Polymarket prices with fees, settlement sources, the last 24 hours of results and the Polymarket wallets on each side, with Buy Up and Buy Down buttons that open the live window on either venue.
How do I trade Bitcoin Up or Down from this page?+
Pick a side and click Buy Up or Buy Down. The button opens the window that is live right now on Kalshi or Polymarket, where you place the order from your own account on that venue. The Trade smarter panel links each side to whichever venue is cheaper after fees, and every trader in the holders list has a button to take the same side on Kalshi.
Is Bitcoin Up or Down cheaper on Kalshi or Polymarket?+
It changes from window to window and minute to minute. Both venues charge a taker fee of 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per contract, so the fee is largest near 50¢. The Trade smarter panel on this page compares the fee-included price of Up and Down on both venues every two seconds and highlights the cheaper one. On Kalshi, a limit order pays no fee.
Does Kalshi have 5-minute Bitcoin markets?+
Kalshi's short Bitcoin Up or Down market is the 15-minute window. Polymarket lists 5-minute, 15-minute, hourly and longer versions. This page tracks the 15-minute window, the one both venues run on the same schedule, so their prices can be compared directly.
Can I get Bitcoin Up or Down data through an API?+
Yes. The Prediction.com API serves live prices, trades, order books and historical data for Kalshi, Polymarket and other venues in one normalized format, the same data behind this page.
Availability, eligibility and legality vary by platform and by location. This page is informational and is not investment, trading or betting advice.