Clarity Act Senate Passage Odds Fall to 26% With Seven Democrats

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Clarity Act Cloture Chances Collapse to 26% as Senate Clock Runs Out

Prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket now price the Clarity Act clearing Senate cloture on September 15 at just 26%, a 10-percentage-point drop over the past three days, with seven named Democratic holdouts still publicly uncommitted and no deal framework visible. The bill needs 60 yes votes to advance to a full floor debate, and the bipartisan coalition that was supposed to deliver that supermajority is visibly stalling with two weeks left.

The math is unforgiving. The Senate's 53 Republicans would need to hold every member of their conference and then flip at least seven Democrats or Independents. The seven senators who have publicly expressed reservations are Angela Alsobrooks, Cory Booker, Catherine Cortez Masto, Ruben Gallego, John Hickenlooper, Mark Warner, and Raphael Warnock. To reach 60, the bill would need to convert virtually all of them. Not most. All.

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How Many Senators Will Vote for the Clarity Act? Live Odds

Prediction-market view

Live prices, venue by venue

Compare the latest YES price at each venue. Check market rules, liquidity, and fees before trading.

Above 60

Consensus YES price across 2 venues

7%average

PolymarketBest YES price8¢Kalshi10¢

Above 58

Consensus YES price across 2 venues

10%average

PolymarketBest YES price9¢Kalshi11¢

Above 62

Consensus YES price across 2 venues

8%average

PolymarketBest YES price8.2¢Kalshi9¢

Above 50

Consensus YES price across 2 venues

6%average

PolymarketBest YES price8¢Kalshi9¢

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The live widget above shows the full distribution of where traders expect the final vote count to land. The "Above 60" bucket at 26% is the focal point for anyone tracking whether the bill advances, but the market's implied expectation sits well below the cloture threshold. Kalshi prices the Above 60 outcome at 22%, while Polymarket has it at 29%. That 7-point spread between platforms reflects genuine uncertainty about the final count. The gap suggests Polymarket's user base may be marginally more optimistic about a last-minute deal, though both platforms agree the bill is more likely to stall than to pass.

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Above 60 Votes Has Shed 10 Points in Three Days

A 10-percentage-point decline in 72 hours is not routine drift. It implies new information entered the market. The most likely catalyst is the continued absence of movement on three specific policy disputes: ethics provisions, stablecoin yield terms, and illicit-finance protections. Lines.com reported that large positions were placed against passage in recent days, and the timing aligns with reports that the Tillis-Gallego ethics compromise, sent to the White House in late July, has not produced a counteroffer or any visible progress. Without confirmation that the White House is actively negotiating, the market read the silence as a negative signal.

The Above 60 contract touched a period low of 25% before rebounding one point to its current 26%. That floor was tested and barely held. If no deal framework emerges in the next week, the contract will likely revisit that low and break through it.

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Why the Bipartisan Deal Is Visibly Stalling Before September 15

Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed the cloture motion on August 8, setting the September 15 procedural vote as a hard deadline. Filing cloture was supposed to force urgency. Instead, it appears to have frozen the negotiating dynamic. Each of the seven Democratic holdouts has specific, overlapping but distinct objections. Warner and Hickenlooper have focused on consumer protection guardrails. Alsobrooks and Booker have raised concerns about market integrity standards. Gallego, the only holdout who co-authored the ethics compromise with Tillis, occupies the most ambiguous position: he wants a deal but has not committed to voting yes on the current text.

The sticking points are not cosmetic. Ethics provisions touch on whether members of Congress and their families can hold digital asset tokens while voting on regulation. Stablecoin yield terms determine whether issuers can pass interest to holders, a question worth billions in revenue to the industry. Illicit-finance protections pit Treasury Department enforcement priorities against the industry's desire for lighter compliance burdens. Resolving any one of these is a multi-week negotiation. Resolving all three in 15 days, while Congress also juggles reconciliation and appropriations, is the kind of legislative threading-the-needle that prediction markets are right to discount.

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The Case for Above 60: What Would Have to Change

The strongest argument for a late rally in this contract is precedent. The GENIUS Act, a stablecoin bill that faced a similar cloture crisis earlier this year, saw its own holdout bloc fracture at the last moment when leadership offered targeted amendments. If the White House engages on the Tillis-Gallego ethics framework and offers Alsobrooks, Booker, and Warner specific concessions on illicit-finance language, the dam could break quickly. Seven uncommitted senators is a large number, but "uncommitted" is not "opposed." None of the seven has said they will vote no. They have said the draft falls short, which is the language of negotiation, not rejection.

There is also a structural incentive. Digital asset regulation is a priority for both parties heading into the 2028 cycle. Democrats who block the Clarity Act risk being tagged as obstructionist on an issue where public opinion has shifted toward wanting a regulatory framework. If leadership can credibly promise a manager's amendment addressing even two of the three sticking points, some holdouts may decide that voting yes on an imperfect bill is better than owning the failure.

That said, the market is pricing this scenario at roughly one-in-four, which feels about right. The bill needs to flip nearly its entire skeptic roster, not just peel off one or two. Every day without a visible breakthrough compresses the timeline and reinforces the base case of failure.

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What Resolution Looks Like and Where to Track It

This market resolves on January 1, 2027, based on the final recorded vote count. If the September 15 cloture vote fails, it does not automatically resolve the Above 60 contract at zero because leadership could theoretically refile cloture later in the session. But practically, a failed September 15 vote would send this contract into single digits. The legislative calendar after September is consumed by appropriations and, potentially, a government shutdown fight. There is no realistic second window.

For live prices across all vote-count buckets, the Clarity Act Senate vote odds page tracks every outcome in real time. The next two weeks will either validate the market's skepticism or produce one of the sharpest reversals in legislative prediction market history.