How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? - 6% Chance

Kalshi

Get a $55 trading bonus

Sign-up bonus on Kalshi.

Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Nov 2, 2026

How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

Expected

Under 50.0

5% chance it lands above 50.0

Loading chart…

OutcomeConsensus

Kalshi

Polymarket

Best price

Above 55

5%

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	4.5%	4¢	5¢	95¢	96¢
Polymarket	6.0%	5¢	7¢	93¢	95¢

Above 58

5%

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	4.5%	4¢	5¢	95¢	96¢
Polymarket	6.0%	4¢	8¢	92¢	96¢

Above 60

5%

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	4.5%	4¢	5¢	95¢	96¢
Polymarket	4.5%	4¢	5¢	95¢	96¢

Above 62

6%

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	5.5%	4¢	7¢	93¢	96¢
Polymarket	6.6%	4¢	9¢	91¢	96¢

Above 64

6%

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	5.0%	3¢	7¢	93¢	97¢
Polymarket	6.3%	4¢	8¢	92¢	96¢

Kalshi

Polymarket

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

Rules for Candidate:

Kalshi

Primary Rule

If the number of Senate voting Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE) before Jan 1, 2027 is above 50, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcryptostructure/crypto-market-structure/kxcryptostructure-26jan The vote must occur in the relevant full chamber (that is, not a Committee vote, though not every member of the chamber needs to have participated in the vote). If no vote has occurred before the specified date, then any market not including "zero" within its count (e.g. "Between 50 and 64") resolves to No, and any market including "zero" (e.g. "Below 50") resolves to Yes. If the vote count is not specified but the bill is passed, any market including "100" for the Senate and "435" for the House of Representatives (e.g. "Between 65 and 100" or "Between 300 and 435") will resolve to Yes, and any market not including "100" or "435", respectively, (e.g. "Below 65") resolves to No. Once the market has expired, a request by any Member of Congress to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website Congress.gov or any other official source.

Resolution Oracles

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Clarity Act?

The Clarity Act is proposed legislation aimed at providing clearer guidelines on specific political processes. Its passage could reshape how certain policies are implemented.

Why does the number of Senators voting matter?

The number of Senators voting for the Clarity Act will determine its likelihood of passing. A higher vote count can indicate broader bipartisan support or party alignment.

What factors influence the voting outcome?

Factors influencing the voting outcome include party leadership, public opinion, and lobbying efforts. Additionally, upcoming elections may affect Senators' decisions based on their constituents' views.

How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act: what does this prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act: what are the current odds?

The latest available prices are Above 62: 5.5¢ on Kalshi, 6.6¢ on Polymarket; Above 64: 5.0¢ on Kalshi, 6.3¢ on Polymarket; Above 66: 5.5¢ on Kalshi, 5.6¢ on Polymarket; Above 55: 4.5¢ on Kalshi, 6.0¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.