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Live prediction market odds for American League Champion. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Kalshi / Polymarket

American League Champion

2026-11-01

About This Market

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Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the American League Champion event for the 2026 season. This championship will determine which team represents the American League in the World Series, impacting fan engagement and team investments leading up to the playoffs.

New York Yankees leads the “American League Champion” event at 22.5% implied probability. Other contenders include Seattle Mariners (20.5%), Texas Rangers (7.5%), Kansas City Royals (7.0%), and Baltimore Orioles (7.0%). A 3.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
No price history available

Live Markets

2 platforms
NY
New York Yankees
22% Avg
Kalshi25¢
Polymarket23¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
23.0%21¢25¢75¢79¢
PolymarketPolymarket
21.0%19¢23¢77¢81¢
NY
New York Yankees
22% Avg
Kalshi25¢
Polymarket23¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
23.0%21¢25¢75¢79¢
PolymarketPolymarket
21.0%19¢23¢77¢81¢
SM
Seattle Mariners
20% Avg
Kalshi21¢
Polymarket21¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
20.5%20¢21¢79¢80¢
PolymarketPolymarket
20.0%19¢21¢79¢81¢
SM
Seattle Mariners
20% Avg
Kalshi21¢
Polymarket21¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
20.5%20¢21¢79¢80¢
PolymarketPolymarket
20.0%19¢21¢79¢81¢
TR
Texas Rangers
7% Avg
Kalshi8¢
Polymarket8¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
7.5%7¢8¢92¢93¢
PolymarketPolymarket
7.0%6¢8¢92¢94¢

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the American League Champion?

Team performance during the regular season, player injuries, and trades significantly affect the odds. Additionally, historical performance and head-to-head matchups can sway market predictions.

How do prediction markets determine the favorite for the championship?

Prediction markets aggregate real-time betting data from participants, reflecting collective sentiment on team strengths and weaknesses. As the season progresses, odds adjust based on game outcomes and other relevant developments.

When is the American League Champion determined?

The American League Champion will be decided at the conclusion of the postseason, typically in late October or early November. The exact date may vary depending on the playoff schedule.

What is "American League Champion" and why does it matter?

American League Champion is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). New York Yankees leads at 23% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include New York Yankees at 23%, Seattle Mariners at 21%, Seattle Mariners at 21%.

What is moving the odds on "American League Champion"?

New York Yankees currently leads at 23% implied probability. Behind New York Yankees, New York Yankees at 23% and Seattle Mariners at 21% and Seattle Mariners at 21% are the next closest contenders. A 3.0% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
APESPNFox Sports
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oraclemlb.comConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.0%
Platforms2
Candidates16
Leader

New York Yankees

22.5% avg

Market Rulebook: American League Champion

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Baltimore win the 2026 Pro Baseball American League Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
APESPNFox Sports
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 American League Championship Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 American League Championship Series per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 American League Championship Series is cancelled, postponed after November 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oraclemlb.comConsensus of Sources
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