Live prediction market odds for Andrey Rublev vs. Alex de Minaur. Compare prices across Kalshi and Novig and Polymarket.
Best price · tap to trade
Live prediction market odds for Andrey Rublev vs. Alex de Minaur. Compare prices across Kalshi and Novig and Polymarket.
Best price · tap to trade
Traders give Alex de Minaur about a 52.8% chance. Andrey Rublev follows at 48.2%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Novig, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.0 percentage points.
Traders give Alex de Minaur about a 52.8% chance. Andrey Rublev follows at 48.2%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Novig, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.0 percentage points.
Andrey Rublev vs. Alex de Minaur: ATP Tennis match scheduled for 2026-10-04. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Kalshi
Novig
PolymarketKalshiNovigPolymarketBest price among US-regulated venues.
Alex de Minaur
52.8% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Novig and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Andrey Rublev wins the de Minaur vs Rublev professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Beijing Quarterfinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the de Minaur vs Rublev professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Beijing Quarterfinal after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks). Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
NovigAndrey Rublev in Andrey Rublev @ Alex De Minaur Quarterfinals (ATP); settled by Novig.
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Andrey Rublev in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 2:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex de Minaur' if Alex de Minaur advances against Andrey Rublev. This market will resolve to 'Andrey Rublev' if Andrey Rublev advances against Alex de Minaur. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Alex de Minaur: 52.5¢ on Kalshi, 53.0¢ on Polymarket, 53.0¢ on Novig; Andrey Rublev: 48.5¢ on Kalshi, 47.0¢ on Polymarket, 49.0¢ on Novig. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
The largest price difference shown across venues is 2.0 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.
For example, Alex de Minaur at 52.8¢ implies about a 52.8% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading.
Smart money is heavily buying Alex de Minaur
Buy Yes at 53¢$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow
$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow
Live tracking of high-volume trades from historically profitable accounts.
Trader up $186K lifetime bought $860 of Alex de Minaur at 53¢
5h agoChina Open: Alex de Minaur vs Andrey RublevTrade on Kalshi →