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Live prediction market odds for Denis Shapovalov vs. Carlos Alcaraz. Compare prices across Kalshi and Novig and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Kalshi

4.9
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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Novig / Polymarket

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Denis Shapovalov vs. Carlos Alcaraz

ATP·2026-10-04

Best price · tap to trade

Carlos Alcaraz87¢1.15xNovigDenis Shapovalov14¢7.14xKalshi
Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Resolved Oct 1

Final odds

About This Market

Traders give Carlos Alcaraz about a 87.0% chance. Denis Shapovalov follows at 13.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Novig, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.0 percentage points.

Traders give Carlos Alcaraz about a 87.0% chance. Denis Shapovalov follows at 13.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Novig, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.0 percentage points.

Denis Shapovalov vs. Carlos Alcaraz: ATP Tennis match scheduled for 2026-10-04. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms

Moneyline

OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
NovigNovig
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
CA
Carlos Alcaraz
87%
Kalshi88¢
Novig87¢
Polymarket87¢
Novig1.16x87¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
87.5%87¢88¢12¢13¢
NovigNovig
86.5%86¢87¢14¢14¢
PolymarketPolymarket
87.0%86¢87¢13¢14¢
DS
Denis Shapovalov
14%
Kalshi14¢
Novig14¢
Polymarket14¢
Kalshi7.14x14¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
13.5%13¢14¢86¢87¢
NovigNovig
14.0%14¢14¢86¢87¢
PolymarketPolymarket
13.0%13¢14¢86¢87¢
KalshiKalshiNovigNovigPolymarketPolymarket

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread1.0%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Carlos Alcaraz

87.0% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Denis Shapovalov vs. Carlos Alcaraz

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Novig and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Denis Shapovalov wins the Alcaraz vs Shapovalov professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Tokyo Quarterfinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the Alcaraz vs Shapovalov professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Tokyo Quarterfinal after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks). Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
NovigNovig
Primary Rule

Denis Shapovalov in Denis Shapovalov @ Carlos Alcaraz Quarterfinals (ATP); settled by Novig.

PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Denis Shapovalov in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 12:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Denis Shapovalov. This market will resolve to 'Denis Shapovalov' if Denis Shapovalov advances against Carlos Alcaraz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Denis Shapovalov vs. Carlos Alcaraz prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Denis Shapovalov vs. Carlos Alcaraz odds?

The latest available prices are Carlos Alcaraz: 87.5¢ on Kalshi, 87.0¢ on Polymarket, 86.5¢ on Novig; Denis Shapovalov: 13.5¢ on Kalshi, 13.0¢ on Polymarket, 14.0¢ on Novig. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Why do Denis Shapovalov vs. Carlos Alcaraz odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 1.0 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do Denis Shapovalov vs. Carlos Alcaraz prediction market payouts work?

For example, Carlos Alcaraz at 87.0¢ implies about a 87.0% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading.

Smart Money Positioning (24 hours)
Full Feed

Smart money is heavily buying Carlos Alcaraz

Smart Money Consensus$5.9K
$5.8KCarlos Alcaraz$134Denis Shapovalov
Smart Traders Split2
1Carlos Alcaraz1Denis Shapovalov
NovigBuy Yes at 87¢

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

Carlos Alcaraz$5.8K · 1 whale
Denis Shapovalov$134 · 1 whale

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

Smart Money Feed
Full Feed

Live tracking of high-volume trades from historically profitable accounts.

Trader up $2.7M lifetime bought $5.5K of Carlos Alcaraz at 87¢

3h ago
PolymarketKalshiJapan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis ShapovalovTrade on Kalshi →