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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket / ProphetX

Carlos Alcaraz Wins: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Roman Safiullin

ATP·Resolved 2026-08-31

This market resolved on 2026-08-31. Carlos Alcaraz was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.

About This Market

Carlos Alcaraz vs.

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Roman Safiullin: ATP Tennis match held on 2026-08-31. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market Prices Compare Fees Before You Trade New to Polymarket?

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and ProphetX.

Rules for Candidate:

Kalshi

Primary Rule

If Roman Safiullin wins the Safiullin vs Alcaraz professional tennis match in the 2026 US Open Men Singles Round Of 128 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the Safiullin vs Alcaraz professional tennis match in the 2026 US Open Men Singles Round Of 128 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks). Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Resolution Oracles

Kalshi Rules

Polymarket

Primary Rule

This market refers to the tennis match between Roman Safiullin and Carlos Alcaraz in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Roman Safiullin' if Roman Safiullin advances against Carlos Alcaraz. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Roman Safiullin. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution Oracles

UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources

ProphetX

Primary Rule

Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules

Resolution Oracles

ProphetX Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Carlos Alcaraz vs. Roman Safiullin prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.

What were the last available Carlos Alcaraz vs. Roman Safiullin odds?

The last available prices are Carlos Alcaraz: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 99.9¢ on Polymarket, 99.4¢ on ProphetX; Roman Safiullin: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.1¢ on Polymarket, 2.5¢ on ProphetX. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.

Why do Carlos Alcaraz vs. Roman Safiullin odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 2.4 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do Carlos Alcaraz vs. Roman Safiullin prediction market payouts work?

For example, Carlos Alcaraz at 99.4¢ implies about a 99.4% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.

Candidate
Carlos AlcarazWINNER	99%	100%	99%
Roman Safiullin	1%	0%	2%

Carlos Alcaraz Wins: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Roman Safiullin

About This Market

Price History

Carlos Alcaraz Wins: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Roman Safiullin

About This Market

Price History

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Carlos Alcaraz Wins: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Roman Safiullin

About This Market

Price History

Carlos Alcaraz Wins: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Roman Safiullin

About This Market

Price History

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Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Roman Safiullin

Frequently Asked Questions