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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

Taro Daniel Wins: Hayato Matsuoka vs. Taro Daniel

ATP·Resolved 2026-09-23

This market resolved on 2026-09-23. Taro Daniel was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.

About This Market

Hayato Matsuoka vs.

Hayato Matsuoka vs. Taro Daniel: ATP Tennis match held on 2026-09-23. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market Prices Compare Fees Before You Trade New to Polymarket?

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US.

Rules for Candidate:

Kalshi

Primary Rule

If Hayato Matsuoka wins the Daniel vs Matsuoka professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Hangzhou Qualification Final after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the Daniel vs Matsuoka professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Hangzhou Qualification Final after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks). Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Resolution Oracles

Kalshi Rules

Polymarket

Primary Rule

This market refers to the tennis match between Taro Daniel and Hayato Matsuoka in the Hangzhou Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for September 23, 2026 at 12:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Taro Daniel' if Taro Daniel advances against Hayato Matsuoka. This market will resolve to 'Hayato Matsuoka' if Hayato Matsuoka advances against Taro Daniel. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution Oracles

UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources

Polymarket US

Primary Rule

This market will settle to the winner of the Taro Daniel vs Hayato Matsuoka ATP match scheduled for September 23 at 12:00AM. If the match does not begin due to a walkover, forfeit, injury, or any other cancellation prior to the first point being played, the market will settle to fair market price. If a player retires during the match, the opponent will be recorded as the winner. Outcome sourced from ATP.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Hayato Matsuoka vs. Taro Daniel prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.

What were the last available Hayato Matsuoka vs. Taro Daniel odds?

The last available prices are Taro Daniel: 99.5¢ on Kalshi, 99.9¢ on Polymarket, 99.0¢ on Polymarket US; Hayato Matsuoka: 0.5¢ on Kalshi, 9.0¢ on Polymarket, 1.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.

Why do Hayato Matsuoka vs. Taro Daniel odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 8.5 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do Hayato Matsuoka vs. Taro Daniel prediction market payouts work?

For example, Taro Daniel at 99.5¢ implies about a 99.5% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.

Candidate
Taro DanielWINNER	100%	99%	100%
Hayato Matsuoka	1%	1%	9%

Taro Daniel Wins: Hayato Matsuoka vs. Taro Daniel

About This Market

Price History

Taro Daniel Wins: Hayato Matsuoka vs. Taro Daniel

About This Market

Price History

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Taro Daniel Wins: Hayato Matsuoka vs. Taro Daniel

About This Market

Price History

Taro Daniel Wins: Hayato Matsuoka vs. Taro Daniel

About This Market

Price History

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Market Rulebook: Hayato Matsuoka vs. Taro Daniel

Frequently Asked Questions