Live prediction market odds for Matteo Arnaldi vs. Carlos Alcaraz. Compare prices across Kalshi and Novig and Polymarket.
ATP·Resolved 2026-10-03
This market has closed on 2026-10-03. The chart below shows historical odds.
Matteo Arnaldi vs.
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Carlos Alcaraz: ATP Tennis match held on 2026-10-03. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
Carlos Alcaraz | 95% | 92% | 95% |
Matteo Arnaldi | 6% | 8% | 5% |
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Novig and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Matteo Arnaldi wins the Alcaraz vs Arnaldi professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Tokyo Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Alcaraz vs Arnaldi professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Tokyo Round Of 16 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks). Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
NovigMatteo Arnaldi in Matteo Arnaldi @ Carlos Alcaraz Round of 16 (ATP); settled by Novig.
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Matteo Arnaldi in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Matteo Arnaldi. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Arnaldi' if Matteo Arnaldi advances against Carlos Alcaraz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
The last available prices are Carlos Alcaraz: 94.5¢ on Kalshi, 95.0¢ on Polymarket, 92.0¢ on Novig; Matteo Arnaldi: 5.5¢ on Kalshi, 5.0¢ on Polymarket, 8.0¢ on Novig. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
The largest price difference shown across venues is 3.0 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.
For example, Carlos Alcaraz at 93.8¢ implies about a 93.8% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.
