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Live prediction market odds for Pavel Kotov vs. Luca Castelnuovo. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and ProphetX.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket / ProphetX

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Pavel Kotov Wins: Pavel Kotov vs. Luca Castelnuovo

ATP·Resolved 2026-09-22

This market resolved on 2026-09-22. Pavel Kotov was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.

About This Market

Pavel Kotov vs.

Pavel Kotov vs. Luca Castelnuovo: ATP Tennis match held on 2026-09-22. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
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Final odds
Loading 30D data…

Final Closing Odds

3 platforms
Candidate
Kalshi
Polymarket
ProphetX
Pavel KotovWINNER
99%100%69%
Luca Castelnuovo
1%1%7%

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
ProphetXProphetX
ProphetX Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread31.2%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Winner

Pavel Kotov

89.2% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Pavel Kotov vs. Luca Castelnuovo

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and ProphetX.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Luca Castelnuovo wins the Castelnuovo vs Kotov professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Chengdu Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the Castelnuovo vs Kotov professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Chengdu Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks). Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market refers to the tennis match between Luca Castelnuovo and Pavel Kotov in the Chengdu Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for September 21, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Luca Castelnuovo' if Luca Castelnuovo advances against Pavel Kotov. This market will resolve to 'Pavel Kotov' if Pavel Kotov advances against Luca Castelnuovo. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
ProphetXProphetX
Primary Rule

Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules

Resolution Oracles
ProphetX Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Pavel Kotov vs. Luca Castelnuovo prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.

What were the last available Pavel Kotov vs. Luca Castelnuovo odds?

The last available prices are Pavel Kotov: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 99.9¢ on Polymarket, 68.7¢ on ProphetX; Luca Castelnuovo: 0.5¢ on Kalshi, 1.0¢ on Polymarket, 6.8¢ on ProphetX. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.

Why do Pavel Kotov vs. Luca Castelnuovo odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 31.2 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do Pavel Kotov vs. Luca Castelnuovo prediction market payouts work?

For example, Pavel Kotov at 89.2¢ implies about a 89.2% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.