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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket / ProphetX

Jakub Mensik Wins: Shintaro Mochizuki vs. Jakub Mensik

ATP·Resolved 2026-08-31

This market resolved on 2026-08-31. Jakub Mensik was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 98%.

About This Market

Shintaro Mochizuki vs.

Shintaro Mochizuki vs. Jakub Mensik: ATP Tennis match held on 2026-08-31. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market Prices Compare Fees Before You Trade New to Polymarket?

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and ProphetX.

Rules for Candidate:

Kalshi

Primary Rule

If Jakub Mensik wins the Mensik vs Mochizuki professional tennis match in the 2026 US Open Men Singles Round Of 128 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the Mensik vs Mochizuki professional tennis match in the 2026 US Open Men Singles Round Of 128 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks). Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Resolution Oracles

Kalshi Rules

Polymarket

Primary Rule

This market refers to the tennis match between Jakub Mensik and Shintaro Mochizuki in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jakub Mensik' if Jakub Mensik advances against Shintaro Mochizuki. This market will resolve to 'Shintaro Mochizuki' if Shintaro Mochizuki advances against Jakub Mensik. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution Oracles

UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources

ProphetX

Primary Rule

Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules

Resolution Oracles

ProphetX Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Shintaro Mochizuki vs. Jakub Mensik prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.

What were the last available Shintaro Mochizuki vs. Jakub Mensik odds?

The last available prices are Jakub Mensik: 99.5¢ on Kalshi, 89.0¢ on Polymarket, 98.2¢ on ProphetX; Shintaro Mochizuki: 0.5¢ on Kalshi, 11.0¢ on Polymarket, 3.2¢ on ProphetX. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.

Why do Shintaro Mochizuki vs. Jakub Mensik odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 10.5 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do Shintaro Mochizuki vs. Jakub Mensik prediction market payouts work?

For example, Jakub Mensik at 95.6¢ implies about a 95.6% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.

Candidate
Jakub MensikWINNER	100%	89%	98%
Shintaro Mochizuki	1%	11%	3%

Jakub Mensik Wins: Shintaro Mochizuki vs. Jakub Mensik

About This Market

Price History

Jakub Mensik Wins: Shintaro Mochizuki vs. Jakub Mensik

About This Market

Price History

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Frequently Asked Questions

Jakub Mensik Wins: Shintaro Mochizuki vs. Jakub Mensik

About This Market

Price History

Jakub Mensik Wins: Shintaro Mochizuki vs. Jakub Mensik

About This Market

Price History

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Final Closing Odds

Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: Shintaro Mochizuki vs. Jakub Mensik

Frequently Asked Questions