Bank of Japan rate decision in December
Live prediction market odds for Bank of Japan rate decision in December. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Listed Updated Expected to settle by
Traders give Hike 25bps about a 88.3% chance. No change follows at 7.8%, Hike more than 25bps follows at 3.3%, and Cut 25bps follows at 1.2%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.5 percentage points.
Kalshi
PolymarketKalshiPolymarketBest price among US-regulated venues.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf the Bank of Japan takes the action of Maintain current rate at December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, scheduled for December 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The Bank of Japan's rate decision influences monetary policy and economic conditions in Japan. Changes in interest rates can affect inflation and currency value.
The official announcement regarding the rate decision will be made on December 18, 2026. This date is crucial for market participants.
Odds may fluctuate based on economic indicators such as inflation rates, GDP growth, and employment data. Market sentiment and analyst predictions also play a role.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Hike 25bps: 87.0¢ on Kalshi, 89.5¢ on Polymarket; No change: 7.5¢ on Kalshi, 8.0¢ on Polymarket; Hike more than 25bps: 4.5¢ on Kalshi, 2.1¢ on Polymarket; Cut 25bps: 2.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.3¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
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Trader up $42.5K lifetime bought $1.2K of Yes at 80¢
3d agoBank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Trade on Kalshi 
