What does the Luminosity vs. BIG prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Luminosity vs. BIG odds?

The latest available prices are Luminosity: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 65.0¢ on Polymarket; BIG: 51.5¢ on Kalshi, 35.0¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Why do Luminosity vs. BIG odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 34.0 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do Luminosity vs. BIG prediction market payouts work?

For example, Luminosity at 82.0¢ implies about a 82.0% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading.