About This Market
Traders give PRIVATE about a 65.3% chance. Butterfly follows at 35.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.5 percentage points.
PRIVATE vs. Butterfly
Live prediction market odds for PRIVATE vs. Butterfly. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Best price · tap to trade
Traders give PRIVATE about a 65.3% chance. Butterfly follows at 35.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.5 percentage points.
Kalshi
PolymarketKalshiPolymarketBest price among US-regulated venues.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Underdog.
UnderdogPrivate vs Butterfly Moneyline: BTF to win in Private vs Butterfly; settled by Underdog.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are PRIVATE: 64.5¢ on Kalshi, 66.0¢ on Polymarket; Butterfly: 36.5¢ on Kalshi, 34.0¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
The largest price difference shown across venues is 2.5 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.
For example, PRIVATE at 65.3¢ implies about a 65.3% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading.