European Central Bank rate decision in December
Live prediction market odds for European Central Bank rate decision in December. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Listed Updated Expected to settle by
Traders give 25 bps increase about a 93.5% chance. No change follows at 4.3%, 50+ bps increase follows at 1.4%, and 25 bps decrease follows at 0.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 0.8 percentage points.
Kalshi
PolymarketKalshiPolymarketBest price among US-regulated venues.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf the European Central Bank takes the action of Cut 1-25bps at December ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The ECB considers various economic indicators such as inflation rates, employment statistics, and GDP growth when making its rate decision. Market expectations and global economic conditions also play a significant role.
The ECB typically holds monetary policy meetings every six weeks, during which it can adjust interest rates. The December meeting is particularly important as it often sets the tone for the following year.
A change in interest rates can affect borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, influencing economic activity. It also impacts currency values and financial markets across Europe.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are 25 bps increase: 93.5¢ on Kalshi, 93.5¢ on Polymarket; No change: 4.0¢ on Kalshi, 4.5¢ on Polymarket; 50+ bps increase: 1.5¢ on Kalshi, 1.4¢ on Polymarket; 25 bps decrease: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.3¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
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Trader up $179K lifetime bought $1.9K of Yes at 85¢
2d agoWill the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the December 2026 meeting?Trade on Kalshi Trader up $29.5K lifetime sold $1.4K of Yes at 83¢
3d agoWill the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the December 2026 meeting?Trade on Kalshi 
