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Live prediction market odds for Fed Decision in October. Compare prices across Polymarket and Predict.fun.

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Fed Decision in October

2026-10-28

Best price · tap to trade

the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps69¢1.45xPolymarketthere be no change in Fed interest rates31¢3.23xPolymarketthe Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps1¢100.00xPolymarket
Compare all 5 outcomes across 2 venues

About This Market

Traders give the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps about a 68.5% chance. there be no change in Fed interest rates follows at 30.3%, the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps follows at 1.0%, and the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps follows at 0.7%. Compare prices from Polymarket and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 0.6 percentage points.

Traders give the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps about a 68.5% chance. there be no change in Fed interest rates follows at 30.3%, the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps follows at 1.0%, and the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps follows at 0.7%. Compare prices from Polymarket and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 0.6 percentage points.

Polymarket and PredictIt are tracking the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates scheduled for October 28, 2026. The market resolves based on the official announcement regarding the federal funds rate made during the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on that date.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
PolymarketPolymarket
Predict.funPredict.fun
Best price
TF
the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps
68%
Polymarket69¢
Predict.fun69¢
Polymarket1.45x69¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
68.5%68¢69¢31¢32¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
68.5%68¢69¢31¢32¢
TB
there be no change in Fed interest rates
30%
Polymarket31¢
Predict.fun31¢
Polymarket3.23x31¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
30.0%30¢31¢69¢70¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
30.6%30¢31¢69¢70¢
TF
the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps
1%
Polymarket1¢
Predict.fun1¢
Polymarket90.91x1¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
1.1%1¢1¢99¢99¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
0.9%1¢1¢99¢99¢
TF
the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps
1%
Polymarket1¢
Predict.fun1¢
Polymarket200.00x1¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
0.5%0¢1¢100¢100¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
0.9%1¢1¢99¢99¢
TF
the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps
—
—
Polymarket333.33x0¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
—0¢—100¢100¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
—0¢—100¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarketPredict.funPredict.fun

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Stats
Spread0.6%
Platforms2
Candidates5
Leader

the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps

68.5% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Fed Decision in October

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Predict.fun.

Predict.funPredict.fun
Primary Rule

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the significance of the Fed's decision on October 28, 2026?

The decision will determine the federal funds rate, which influences borrowing costs and economic activity. This meeting is particularly important as it follows a series of economic indicators that may impact monetary policy.

How often does the Federal Open Market Committee meet?

The Federal Open Market Committee typically meets eight times a year to assess economic conditions and make decisions on monetary policy. Additional meetings can be scheduled if necessary.

What factors influence the Fed's decision on interest rates?

The Fed considers various economic indicators, including inflation rates, employment data, and GDP growth. Market expectations and global economic conditions also play a crucial role in their decision-making process.

What does the Fed Decision in October prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Polymarket, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Fed Decision in October odds?

The latest available prices are the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps: 68.5¢ on Polymarket, 68.5¢ on Predict.fun; there be no change in Fed interest rates: 30.0¢ on Polymarket, 30.6¢ on Predict.fun; the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps: 1.1¢ on Polymarket, 0.9¢ on Predict.fun; the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps: 0.5¢ on Polymarket, 0.9¢ on Predict.fun. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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