Live prediction market odds for Fed Decision in October. Compare prices across .
This market resolved on Oct 29, 2026. No change was the officially declared outcome.
Polymarket and PredictIt are tracking the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates held on October 28, 2026.
Polymarket and PredictIt are tracking the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates held on October 28, 2026. The market resolves based on the official announcement regarding the federal funds rate made during the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on that date.
| Question | Result |
|---|---|
No changeWINNER | Yes |
25 bps decrease | No |
25 bps increase | No |
50+ bps decrease | No |
50+ bps increase | No |
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Predict.fun.
Predict.funThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The decision will determine the federal funds rate, which influences borrowing costs and economic activity. This meeting is particularly important as it follows a series of economic indicators that may impact monetary policy.
The Federal Open Market Committee typically meets eight times a year to assess economic conditions and make decisions on monetary policy. Additional meetings can be scheduled if necessary.
The Fed considers various economic indicators, including inflation rates, employment data, and GDP growth. Market expectations and global economic conditions also play a crucial role in their decision-making process.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Venue prices are not currently available on this page. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
No historical prices are available on this page. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
