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Live prediction market odds for Fed decisions (Oct-Jan). Compare prices across Polymarket and Predict.fun.

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Polymarket / Predict.fun

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Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Listed Oct 8, 2026 · Updated Oct 23, 2026

Best price · tap to trade

Pause-Hike-Pause57¢1.75xPredict.funPause-Hike-Hike18¢5.56xPolymarketPause-Pause-Pause10¢10.00xPredict.fun
Compare all 9 outcomes across 2 venues

About This Market

Traders give Pause-Hike-Pause about a 57.5% chance. Pause-Hike-Hike follows at 17.3%, Pause-Pause-Pause follows at 9.0%, and Hike-Hike-Pause follows at 6.5%. Compare prices from Polymarket and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 4.0 percentage points.

Traders give Pause-Hike-Pause about a 57.5% chance. Pause-Hike-Hike follows at 17.3%, Pause-Pause-Pause follows at 9.0%, and Hike-Hike-Pause follows at 6.5%. Compare prices from Polymarket and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 4.0 percentage points.

Polymarket and PredictIt are tracking the Federal Reserve's decisions from October to January. Markets resolve based on the outcomes of Federal Open Market Committee meetings, where interest rate changes are announced, influencing economic policy.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
PolymarketPolymarket
Predict.funPredict.fun
Best price
P
Pause-Hike-Pause
58%
Polymarket60¢
Predict.fun57¢
Predict.fun1.75x57¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
59.0%58¢60¢40¢42¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
56.0%55¢57¢43¢45¢
P
Pause-Hike-Hike
17%
Polymarket18¢
Predict.fun20¢
Polymarket5.56x18¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
17.5%17¢18¢82¢83¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
17.0%14¢20¢80¢86¢
P
Pause-Pause-Pause
9%
Polymarket11¢
Predict.fun10¢
Predict.fun10.00x10¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
9.5%8¢11¢89¢92¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
8.5%7¢10¢90¢93¢
H
Hike-Hike-Pause
6%
Polymarket6¢
Predict.fun10¢
Polymarket16.13x6¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
5.5%5¢6¢94¢95¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
7.5%5¢10¢90¢95¢
P
Pause-Pause-Hike
5%
Polymarket10¢
Predict.fun7¢
Predict.fun14.29x7¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
6.0%2¢10¢90¢98¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
4.5%2¢7¢93¢98¢
PolymarketPolymarketPredict.funPredict.fun

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oraclefederalreserve.gov
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread4.0%
Platforms2
Candidates9
Volume$33K
Leader

Pause-Hike-Pause

57.5% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Polymarket and Predict.fun.

PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 27 to 28; December 8 to 9; and January 26 to 27. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oraclefederalreserve.gov
Predict.funPredict.fun
Primary Rule

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 27 to 28; December 8 to 9; and January 26 to 27. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Frequently Asked Questions

What triggers a resolution in this market?

Resolution occurs after each Federal Open Market Committee meeting when interest rate changes are officially announced. These meetings typically happen every six weeks.

How do market odds fluctuate?

Odds fluctuate based on economic indicators, inflation data, and statements from Fed officials leading up to the meetings. Analysts and traders closely monitor these developments to adjust their predictions.

What is the significance of the scheduled trading close?

The scheduled trading close marks the last opportunity for traders to place bets before the resolution of the market. It does not necessarily coincide with the timing of any Fed announcements.

What does the Fed decisions (Oct-Jan) prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Polymarket, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Fed decisions (Oct-Jan) odds?

The latest available prices are Pause-Hike-Pause: 59.0¢ on Polymarket, 56.0¢ on Predict.fun; Pause-Hike-Hike: 17.5¢ on Polymarket, 17.0¢ on Predict.fun; Pause-Pause-Pause: 9.5¢ on Polymarket, 8.5¢ on Predict.fun; Hike-Hike-Pause: 5.5¢ on Polymarket, 7.5¢ on Predict.fun. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Fed Pause, Then Two Hikes? Pause-Hike-Hike Odds Hit 19%CME FedWatch puts an October hold at 84.5%, and a Reuters poll shows economists expect a December hike. January is the open question.Oct 21, 2026Fed December Hike Odds Hold After Weak Jobs, Pause-Hike-Pause at 59%Pause-Hike-Pause rose about 19 percentage points in three days as 29,000 September payrolls cut October hike odds while December stayed priced.Oct 18, 2026