Live prediction market odds for Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?. Compare prices across Kalshi and PredictIt.
Resolved 2026-09-16
This market resolved on 2026-09-16. Above 2.75% was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
Prediction markets on Kalshi and PredictIt are tracking the Fed funds rate following the September 2026 meeting.
Prediction markets on Kalshi and PredictIt are tracking the Fed funds rate following the September 2026 meeting. This event is crucial as it will reflect the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance in response to economic conditions and inflation trends at that time.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Above 2.75%WINNER | 99% | — |
Above 3.00% | 99% | — |
Above 3.25% | 99% | — |
Above 3.50% | 99% | — |
Will a majority of the Fed vote to raise rates by Sept. 16 | — | 99% |
Above 3.75% | 86% | — |
Above 4.00% | 1% | — |
Above 4.25% | 1% | — |
Above 4.50% | 1% | — |
Above 4.75% | 1% | — |
Above 5.00% | 1% | — |
Above 5.25% | 1% | — |
Above 2.75%
99.0% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 2.75% following the Federal Reserve's Sep 16, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Sep 16, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.
The Fed funds rate is influenced by inflation rates, employment data, and overall economic growth. The Federal Reserve aims to balance these factors to maintain price stability and support maximum employment.
The Federal Reserve typically meets eight times a year to discuss monetary policy, including the Fed funds rate. Additional meetings may occur if economic conditions warrant urgent action.
The Fed funds rate affects borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, influencing spending and investment. Changes in the rate can impact inflation, employment, and overall economic growth.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, PredictIt in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
The last available prices are Above 2.75%: 99.0¢ on Kalshi; Above 3.00%: 99.0¢ on Kalshi; Above 3.25%: 99.0¢ on Kalshi; Above 3.50%: 99.0¢ on Kalshi. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
