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Will the upper bound of the federal funds target range in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be at or above each level?
Will the upper bound of the federal funds target range in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be at or above each level?
Traders expect Fed funds rate at end of 2027 to come in near 4.01%, with the likely range 3.23% to 4.79%. The market is a ladder of 12 lines from 1.0% to 6.0% on Kalshi and Polymarket US. Each line pays out if the reported figure lands above it, so its price is the chance the figure beats that line, and the expected value is where the fitted curve crosses 50%.