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Live prediction market odds for Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (4:15 PM ET). Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and ProphetX.

Browse historical results
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket / ProphetX

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Arizona Diamondbacks Wins: Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (4:15 PM ET)

MLB·Resolved 2026-08-23

This market resolved on 2026-08-23. Arizona Diamondbacks was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 95%.

About This Market

Cincinnati Reds vs.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (4:15 PM ET) — MLB game held on 2026-08-23. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Final Closing Odds

4 platforms
Candidate
Kalshi
Polymarket US
Polymarket
ProphetX
Andrew Abbott Under 1.5 Strikeouts
——100%—
Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 Home Runs
——100%—
Gabriel Moreno Under 1.5 Home Runs
——100%—
Ildemaro Vargas Under 1.5 Home Runs
——100%—
Andrew Abbott Over 2.5 Strikeouts
——100%—
Mitch Bratt Over 2.5 Strikeouts
——99%—
Nolan Arenado Under 1.5 Home Runs
——99%—
Tyler Stephenson Under 1.5 Home Runs
——99%—
Hector Rodriguez Under 0.5 Home Runs
———99%
Mitch Bratt Under 1.5 Strikeouts
——99%—
Will Banfield Under 0.5 Home Runs
———99%
Eugenio Suarez Under 1.5 Home Runs
——99%—
Sal Stewart Under 1.5 Home Runs
——99%—
Ke'Bryan Hayes Under 0.5 Home Runs
———99%
Matt McLain Under 0.5 Home Runs
———99%
Dane Myers Under 0.5 Home Runs
——94%99%
Arizona DiamondbacksWINNER
99%94%95%96%
JJ Bleday Under 0.5 Home Runs
——90%99%
Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 Home Runs
——94%99%
Ildemaro Vargas Under 0.5 Home Runs
——94%99%
Total under 12.5
———92%
Michael Toglia Under 0.5 Home Runs
———92%
Total under 9.5
——91%92%
Total under 11.5
———91%
Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 Home Runs
——90%—
Dane Myers Over 1.5 Home Runs
——90%—
Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 Home Runs
——90%—
JJ Bleday Over 1.5 Home Runs
——90%—
Total under 10.5
——98%81%
Total under 8.5
——83%95%
Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 Home Runs
——89%99%
Arizona Diamondbacks spread plus 3.5
———89%
Sal Stewart Under 0.5 Home Runs
——88%99%
Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 Home Runs
——87%99%
Mitch Bratt Under 4.5 Strikeouts
———87%
Cincinnati Reds spread plus 4.5
———86%
Cincinnati Reds spread plus 3.5
———86%
Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 Home Runs
——85%99%
Arizona Diamondbacks spread minus 1.5
——99%85%
Arizona Diamondbacks spread plus 2.5
——85%77%
Total over 5.5
———80%
Cincinnati Reds spread plus 2.5
——100%78%
Mitch Bratt Over 3.5 Strikeouts
——90%62%
Total over 6.5
———74%
Mitch Bratt Over 4.5 Strikeouts
———73%
Arizona Diamondbacks spread plus 4.5
———69%
Arizona Diamondbacks spread plus 1.5
——62%73%
Hector Rodriguez Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———67%
Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———66%
Will Banfield Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———66%
Arizona Diamondbacks spread plus 1.0
———66%
Total under 9.0
———65%
Jose Trevino Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———64%
Will Banfield Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———64%
JJ Bleday Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———64%
Matt McLain Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———64%
Ke'Bryan Hayes Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———63%
Michael Toglia Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———63%
Ryan Waldschmidt Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———63%
Jose Fernandez Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———63%
Gabriel Moreno Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———61%
Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———61%
James McCann Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———60%
Ildemaro Vargas Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———59%
Eugenio Suarez Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———58%
Hector Rodriguez Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———58%
Cincinnati Reds spread plus 1.0
———58%
Tim Tawa Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———58%
Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———57%
Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———57%
Sal Stewart Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———57%
Dane Myers Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———57%
Jordan Lawlar Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———57%
Andrew Abbott Under 3.5 Strikeouts
——56%56%
Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———55%
Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 Home Runs
——10%99%
Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———54%
Hector Rodriguez Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———53%
Total under 7.5
———53%
Ildemaro Vargas Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———52%
Nolan Arenado Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———52%
Tim Tawa Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———51%
James McCann Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———50%
Jordan Lawlar Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———50%
Dane Myers Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———50%
Total over 7.5
———50%
Sal Stewart Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———49%
Tyler Stephenson Over 0.5 Home Runs
——90%8%
Jose Fernandez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———49%
Corbin Carroll Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———49%
Elly De La Cruz Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———49%
Ryan Waldschmidt Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———49%
Tyler Stephenson Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———49%
Andrew Abbott Over 3.5 Strikeouts
——44%53%
Will Banfield Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———48%
Gabriel Moreno Over 0.5 Home Runs
——90%5%
Ildemaro Vargas Over 0.5 Home Runs
——90%5%
Arizona Diamondbacks spread minus 1.0
———47%
Eugenio Suarez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———47%
Michael Toglia Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———47%
Mitch Bratt Under 3.5 Strikeouts
——1%47%
JJ Bleday Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———46%
Geraldo Perdomo Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———46%
Jose Trevino Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———45%
Ke'Bryan Hayes Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———44%
Matt McLain Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———43%
Total over 9.0
———43%
Will Banfield Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———41%
Hector Rodriguez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———41%
Cincinnati Reds spread minus 1.0
———40%
Geraldo Perdomo Over 0.5 Home Runs
——72%4%
Cincinnati Reds spread minus 1.5
——38%32%
Cincinnati Reds spread minus 4.5
———30%
Total under 6.5
———30%
Total under 5.5
———29%
Arizona Diamondbacks spread minus 2.5
——0%26%
Cincinnati Reds spread plus 1.5
——1%23%
Arizona Diamondbacks spread minus 3.5
———22%
Cincinnati Reds spread minus 2.5
——15%19%
Arizona Diamondbacks spread minus 4.5
———16%
Total over 11.5
———16%
Total over 8.5
——17%15%
Cincinnati Reds spread minus 3.5
———15%
Total over 12.5
———15%
Michael Toglia Over 0.5 Home Runs
———15%
Total over 10.5
——2%27%
Matt McLain Over 0.5 Home Runs
———11%
Sal Stewart Over 0.5 Home Runs
——12%10%
Total over 9.5
——9%11%
JJ Bleday Over 0.5 Home Runs
——10%10%
Corbin Carroll Under 1.5 Home Runs
——10%—
Dane Myers Under 1.5 Home Runs
——10%—
Elly De La Cruz Under 1.5 Home Runs
——10%—
Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 Home Runs
——10%99%
JJ Bleday Under 1.5 Home Runs
——10%—
Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 Home Runs
——10%99%
Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 Home Runs
——15%4%
Nolan Arenado Over 0.5 Home Runs
——10%9%
Ke'Bryan Hayes Over 0.5 Home Runs
———8%
Ryan Waldschmidt Over 0.5 Home Runs
———8%
Tim Tawa Over 0.5 Home Runs
———8%
Jordan Lawlar Over 0.5 Home Runs
———8%
James McCann Over 0.5 Home Runs
———7%
Cincinnati Reds
1%6%6%6%
Dane Myers Over 0.5 Home Runs
——6%6%
Hector Rodriguez Over 0.5 Home Runs
———6%
Eugenio Suarez Over 0.5 Home Runs
——6%5%
Corbin Carroll Over 0.5 Home Runs
———5%
Will Banfield Over 0.5 Home Runs
———5%
Sal Stewart Over 1.5 Home Runs
——1%—
Mitch Bratt Over 1.5 Strikeouts
——1%—
Mitch Bratt Under 2.5 Strikeouts
——1%—
Andrew Abbott Under 2.5 Strikeouts
——1%—
Andrew Abbott Over 1.5 Strikeouts
——0%—
Geraldo Perdomo Over 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Ildemaro Vargas Over 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
James McCann Under 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Jordan Lawlar Under 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Ryan Waldschmidt Under 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Tim Tawa Under 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Eugenio Suarez Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
James McCann Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
James McCann Under 0.5 Home Runs
——0%99%
Jordan Lawlar Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
Jordan Lawlar Under 0.5 Home Runs
——0%99%
Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
Ryan Waldschmidt Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 Home Runs
——0%99%
Tim Tawa Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
Tim Tawa Under 0.5 Home Runs
——0%99%
Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 Home Runs
————

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
ProphetXProphetX
ProphetX Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread5.0%
Platforms4
Candidates2
Winner

Arizona Diamondbacks

95.9% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (4:15 PM ET)

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US and ProphetX.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Arizona wins the Cincinnati vs Arizona professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 23, 2026 at 4:15 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the Cincinnati vs Arizona professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 23, 2026 at 4:15 PM EDT. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two days). If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two days away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

In the upcoming MLB game between the Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks, scheduled for August 23 at 4:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds" if the Cincinnati Reds win the game. This market will resolve to "Arizona Diamondbacks" if the Arizona Diamondbacks win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to the winner of the Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks MLB game scheduled for 2026-08-23 at 4:15PM ET. Extra innings are included if played. If the game is delayed, postponed, or suspended and not rescheduled to a date within two weeks of the originally scheduled date, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from MLB.

ProphetXProphetX
Primary Rule

Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules

Resolution Oracles
ProphetX Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (4:15 PM ET) prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.

What were the last available Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (4:15 PM ET) odds?

The last available prices are Arizona Diamondbacks: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 94.5¢ on Polymarket, 96.2¢ on ProphetX, 94.0¢ on Polymarket US; Cincinnati Reds: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 5.5¢ on Polymarket, 6.0¢ on ProphetX, 6.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.

Why do Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (4:15 PM ET) odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 5.0 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (4:15 PM ET) prediction market payouts work?

For example, Arizona Diamondbacks at 95.9¢ implies about a 95.9% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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