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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket / ProphetX

New York Mets Wins: Houston Astros vs. New York Mets (4:10 PM ET)

MLB·Resolved 2026-08-29

This market resolved on 2026-08-29. New York Mets was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 98%.

Final Closing Odds

4 platforms

Candidate
Nolan McLean Over 3.5 Strikeouts	99%	—	100%	—
A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	99%	99%
Bo Bichette Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	99%	99%
Carson Benge Over 0.5 Hits	99%	—	—	—
Carson Benge Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	99%	—	—	—
Francisco Lindor Over 0.5 Hits	99%	—	—	—
Francisco Lindor Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	99%	—	—	—
Francisco Lindor Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	99%	—	—	—
Jose Altuve Over 0.5 Hits	99%	—	—	—
Jose Altuve Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	99%	—	—	—
Nolan McLean Over 17.5 Pitcher Outs	99%	—	—	—
Nolan McLean Over 2.5 Strikeouts	99%	—	—	—
Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	—	99%
Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 Hits	99%	—	—	—
Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	99%	—	—	—
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Hits	99%	—	—	—
Yordan Alvarez Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	99%	—	—	—
Yordan Alvarez Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	99%	—	—	—
Yordan Alvarez Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	99%	—	—	—
Brett Baty Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	1%	99%
Carson Benge Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	99%	99%
Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	100%	99%
Cam Smith Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	—	98%
Jeremy Pena Over 0.5 Hits	98%	—	—	—
New York MetsWINNER	99%	60%	99%	97%
Jose Altuve Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	92%	99%
Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	90%	99%
Christian Walker Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	87%	99%
New York Mets spread plus 4.5	—	—	—	92%
Jeremy Pena Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	91%	—	—	—
New York Mets spread plus 1.5	—	—	96%	86%
New York Mets spread plus 2.5	—	—	100%	90%
Yordan Alvarez Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	0%	88%
Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	88%	99%
Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	100%	88%
New York Mets spread plus 3.5	—	—	—	87%
New York Mets spread minus 1.5	99%	—	100%	86%
Total over 4.5	99%	—	—	85%
Total under 10.5	—	—	—	83%
Total under 8.5	—	—	99%	81%
Isaac Paredes Under 1.5 Home Runs	—	—	80%	—
Jeremy Pena Under 1.5 Home Runs	—	—	80%	—
Jose Altuve Under 1.5 Home Runs	—	—	80%	—
Marcus Semien Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	80%	99%
Yordan Alvarez Under 1.5 Home Runs	—	—	80%	—
Houston Astros spread plus 4.5	—	—	—	80%
Total under 9.5	—	—	70%	83%
Total over 6.5	99%	—	—	76%
Total under 11.5	—	—	—	70%
New York Mets spread minus 2.5	99%	—	78%	61%
Houston Astros spread plus 3.5	—	—	—	69%
New York Mets spread plus 1.0	—	—	—	68%
Nolan McLean Under 6.5 Strikeouts	—	—	65%	—
Marcus Semien Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	64%
Daulton Varsho Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	64%
Christian Walker Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	63%
Isaac Paredes Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	63%
Luis Robert Jr. Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	63%
Jeremy Pena Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	63%	—	—	—
Total over 8.0	—	—	—	63%
Cam Smith Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	62%
A.J. Ewing Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	61%
Yainer Diaz Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	60%
Brett Baty Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	99%	—	—	60%
Jared Young Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	60%
Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 Hits	60%	—	—	—
Francisco Alvarez Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	99%	—	—	60%
Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	20%	99%
Francisco Alvarez Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	20%	99%
Jose Altuve Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	58%
Nolan McLean Over 5.5 Strikeouts	1%	—	57%	58%
Total over 5.5	99%	—	—	57%
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	99%	—	—	56%
Taylor Trammell Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	54%	—	—	56%
Total under 7.5	—	—	0%	54%
Bo Bichette Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	53%
Carson Benge Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	53%
Francisco Lindor Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	53%
Jeremy Pena Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	53%
Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	99%	—	—	52%
Carson Benge Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	99%	—	—	52%
Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	99%	—	—	51%
New York Mets spread minus 1.0	—	—	—	51%
Houston Astros spread plus 1.0	—	—	—	51%
Bo Bichette Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	50%	—	—	51%
Total over 7.5	99%	—	100%	50%
Yordan Alvarez Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	50%
Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	50%
Yainer Diaz Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	50%
Total under 5.5	—	—	—	47%
Luis Robert Jr. Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	47%
Total under 8.0	—	—	—	47%
Brett Baty Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	46%
Francisco Alvarez Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	46%
Jared Young Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	99%	—	—	45%
Nolan McLean Under 5.5 Strikeouts	—	—	43%	46%
Daulton Varsho Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	43%	—	—	45%
Cam Smith Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	44%
Christian Walker Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	0%	—	—	44%
Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	0%	—	—	43%
Marcus Semien Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	99%	—	—	43%
A.J. Ewing Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	42%	—	—	43%
New York Mets spread minus 3.5	99%	—	—	36%
Jose Altuve Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	23%	—	—	48%
Christian Walker Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	35%	—	—	—
Jeremy Pena Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	35%	—	—	—
Total over 11.5	1%	—	—	35%
Houston Astros spread minus 1.0	—	—	—	34%
Bo Bichette Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	33%	—	—	—
Carson Benge Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	33%	—	—	—
Houston Astros spread plus 2.5	—	—	22%	43%
Total under 6.5	—	—	—	29%
Christian Walker Over 0.5 RBIs	28%	—	—	—
Jose Altuve Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	28%	—	—	—
Total over 10.5	1%	—	—	28%
Total over 9.5	1%	—	30%	25%
Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 Home Runs	99%	—	100%	27%
Isaac Paredes Over 0.5 RBIs	27%	—	—	—
Bo Bichette Over 0.5 Hits	25%	—	—	—
Bo Bichette Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	25%	—	—	—
New York Mets spread minus 4.5	—	—	—	24%
Total over 8.5	1%	—	1%	23%
Carson Benge Over 1.5 Hits	22%	—	—	—
Jose Altuve Over 1.5 Hits	22%	—	—	—
Nolan McLean Over 6.5 Strikeouts	1%	—	21%	—
Christian Walker Over 0.5 Hits	20%	—	—	—
Christian Walker Over 1.5 Home Runs	1%	—	20%	—
Christian Walker Under 1.5 Home Runs	—	—	20%	—
Daulton Varsho Over 1.5 Home Runs	1%	—	20%	—
Daulton Varsho Under 1.5 Home Runs	—	—	20%	—
Jared Young Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	20%	99%
Jeremy Pena Over 2.5 Hits	20%	—	—	—
Total under 4.5	—	—	—	20%
Isaac Paredes Over 0.5 Hits	19%	—	—	—
Houston Astros spread plus 1.5	—	—	0%	19%
Luis Robert Jr. Over 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	—	18%
Bo Bichette Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	18%	—	—	—
Jose Altuve Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	16%	—	—	—
Francisco Alvarez Over 0.5 Home Runs	1%	—	20%	10%
Houston wins by over 3.5 runs	1%	—	—	15%
Houston Astros spread minus 2.5	1%	—	0%	14%
Christian Walker Over 1.5 Hits	13%	—	—	—
Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 Hits	13%	—	—	—
Houston Astros spread minus 4.5	—	—	—	12%
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Home Runs	3%	—	20%	—
Houston Astros spread minus 1.5	1%	—	4%	19%
Francisco Lindor Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	11%	—	—	—
Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 Home Runs	2%	—	20%	—
Jose Altuve Over 1.5 Home Runs	2%	—	20%	—
Isaac Paredes Over 0.5 Home Runs	1%	—	12%	9%
Brett Baty Over 0.5 Home Runs	1%	—	99%	10%
Bo Bichette Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	10%	—	—	—
Cam Smith Over 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	—	10%
Christian Walker Over 0.5 Home Runs	14%	—	10%	7%
Jeremy Pena Over 0.5 Home Runs	1%	—	10%	6%
Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 Home Runs	3%	—	20%	8%
Marcus Semien Over 0.5 Home Runs	6%	—	—	9%
Francisco Lindor Over 0.5 Home Runs	1%	—	—	7%
Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 Hits	7%	—	—	—
Yordan Alvarez Over 2.5 Hits	7%	—	—	—
Jose Altuve Over 0.5 Home Runs	1%	—	9%	5%
A.J. Ewing Over 0.5 Home Runs	1%	—	—	6%
Houston Astros	1%	40%	1%	6%
Jose Altuve Over 2.5 Hits	6%	—	—	—
Jared Young Over 0.5 Home Runs	4%	—	20%	5%
Bo Bichette Over 1.5 Hits	5%	—	—	—
Carson Benge Over 2.5 Hits	5%	—	—	—
Christian Walker Over 1.5 RBIs	5%	—	—	—
Carson Benge Over 0.5 Home Runs	1%	—	—	5%
Taylor Trammell Over 0.5 Home Runs	3%	—	—	5%
Bo Bichette Over 0.5 Home Runs	1%	—	—	4%
Christian Walker Over 2.5 Hits	4%	—	—	—
Isaac Paredes Over 2.5 Hits	4%	—	—	—
Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 Home Runs	2%	—	—	—
Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 Home Runs	1%	—	1%	—
Bo Bichette Over 1.5 Home Runs	1%	—	—	—
Nolan McLean Over 8.5 Strikeouts	1%	—	—	—
Nolan McLean Over 9.5 Strikeouts	1%	—	—	—
Nolan McLean Under 4.5 Strikeouts	—	—	1%	—
Nolan McLean Under 7.5 Strikeouts	—	—	1%	—
Nolan McLean Under 3.5 Strikeouts	—	—	0%	—
Bo Bichette Over 2.5 Hits	0%	—	—	—
Carson Benge Over 1.5 Home Runs	0%	—	—	—
Carson Benge Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	0%	—	—	—
Carson Benge Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	0%	—	—	—
Christian Walker Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	0%	—	—	—
Christian Walker Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	0%	—	—	—
Christian Walker Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	0%	—	—	—
Francisco Lindor Over 2.5 Hits	0%	—	—	—
Francisco Lindor Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	0%	—	—	—
Isaac Paredes Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	0%	—	—	—
Isaac Paredes Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	0%	—	—	—
Isaac Paredes Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	0%	—	—	—
Isaac Paredes Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	0%	—	—	—
Jeremy Pena Over 3.5 Hits	0%	—	—	—
Jeremy Pena Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	0%	—	—	—
Jose Altuve Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	0%	—	—	—
Yordan Alvarez Over 3.5 Hits	0%	—	—	—
Nolan McLean Over 4.5 Strikeouts	1%	—	99%	—
Nolan McLean Over 7.5 Strikeouts	1%	—	99%	—

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US and ProphetX.

Rules for Candidate:

Kalshi

Primary Rule

If Houston wins the Houston vs New York M professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 29, 2026 at 4:10 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the Houston vs New York M professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 29, 2026 at 4:10 PM EDT. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two days). If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two days away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Resolution Oracles

Kalshi Rules

Polymarket

Primary Rule

In the upcoming MLB game between the Houston Astros and New York Mets, scheduled for August 29 at 4:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Houston Astros" if the Houston Astros win the game. This market will resolve to "New York Mets" if the New York Mets win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Resolution Oracles

UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources

Polymarket US

Primary Rule

This market will settle to the winner of the Houston Astros vs New York Mets MLB game scheduled for 2026-08-29 at 4:10PM ET. Extra innings are included if played. If the game is delayed, postponed, or suspended and not rescheduled to a date within two weeks of the originally scheduled date, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from MLB.

ProphetX

Primary Rule

Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules

Resolution Oracles

ProphetX Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Houston Astros vs. New York Mets (4:10 PM ET) prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.

What were the last available Houston Astros vs. New York Mets (4:10 PM ET) odds?

The last available prices are New York Mets: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 98.7¢ on Polymarket, 97.0¢ on ProphetX, 60.0¢ on Polymarket US; Houston Astros: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 1.3¢ on Polymarket, 6.0¢ on ProphetX, 40.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.

Why do Houston Astros vs. New York Mets (4:10 PM ET) odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 39.0 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do Houston Astros vs. New York Mets (4:10 PM ET) prediction market payouts work?

For example, New York Mets at 88.7¢ implies about a 88.7% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.

New York Mets Wins: Houston Astros vs. New York Mets (4:10 PM ET)

New York Mets Wins: Houston Astros vs. New York Mets (4:10 PM ET)

About This Market

Price History

Final Closing Odds

Resolution Oracles

Frequently Asked Questions

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New York Mets Wins: Houston Astros vs. New York Mets (4:10 PM ET)

New York Mets Wins: Houston Astros vs. New York Mets (4:10 PM ET)

About This Market

Price History

Final Closing Odds

Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: Houston Astros vs. New York Mets (4:10 PM ET)

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