About This Market
Houston Astros vs.
Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres (8:20 PM ET) — MLB game held on 2026-08-09. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Live prediction market odds for Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres (8:20 PM ET). Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and ProphetX.
MLB·Resolved 2026-08-09
This market resolved on 2026-08-09. San Diego Padres was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
Houston Astros vs.
Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres (8:20 PM ET) — MLB game held on 2026-08-09. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate | ![]() | ![]() | ![]() | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Luis Rengifo Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 100% | — |
Cam Smith Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 99% | — |
Xander Bogaerts Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 99% | — |
San Diego PadresWINNER | 99% | 100% | 100% | 99% |
Taylor Trammell Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 99% | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — |
Over 2.5 runs scored | 99% | — | — | — |
Over 3.5 runs scored | 99% | — | — | — |
Total under 12.5 | — | — | — | 99% |
Jake Cronenworth Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 98% | — |
Jose Altuve Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 98% | — |
Christian Walker Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 98% | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 98% | — |
Manny Machado Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 98% | — |
Yordan Alvarez Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 97% | — |
Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 95% | 98% |
Isaac Paredes Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 96% | — |
Freddy Fermin Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 95% |
LaMonte Wade Jr. Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 95% |
Yainer Diaz Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 93% | 96% |
Cam Smith Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 95% | 93% |
Total under 11.5 | — | — | — | 93% |
Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 92% | 94% |
Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 92% |
San Diego Padres spread minus 3.5 | 99% | — | — | 92% |
Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 90% | 93% |
San Diego Padres spread minus 4.5 | — | — | — | 91% |
Jose Altuve Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 88% | 94% |
Ty France Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 89% | 92% |
San Diego Padres spread plus 3.5 | — | — | — | 90% |
San Diego Padres spread plus 4.5 | — | — | — | 90% |
Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 90% | 90% |
Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 87% | 93% |
Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 87% | 92% |
Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 86% | 93% |
Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 86% | 90% |
Total under 10.5 | — | — | — | 88% |
Jeremy Pena Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 88% | — |
Total over 4.5 | 99% | — | — | 86% |
Christian Walker Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 83% | 88% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 83% | 86% |
Total over 6.5 | 99% | — | — | 84% |
Total over 5.5 | 99% | — | — | 84% |
Manny Machado Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 82% | 86% |
Cristian Javier Over 1.5 Strikeouts | 99% | — | 81% | — |
San Diego Padres spread minus 2.5 | 99% | — | 73% | 87% |
San Diego Padres spread minus 1.0 | — | — | — | 79% |
San Diego Padres spread plus 1.5 | — | — | 63% | 93% |
Yordan Alvarez Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 75% | 79% |
LaMonte Wade Jr. Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 76% |
San Diego Padres spread minus 1.5 | 99% | — | 63% | 89% |
Randy Vasquez Over 1.5 Strikeouts | 1% | — | 76% | — |
Randy Vasquez Under 1.5 Strikeouts | — | — | 75% | — |
Total under 8.0 | — | — | — | 74% |
San Diego Padres spread plus 2.5 | — | — | 71% | 76% |
Randy Vasquez Under 3.5 Strikeouts | — | — | — | 71% |
Total under 9.0 | — | — | — | 69% |
Taylor Trammell Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 68% |
Total under 9.5 | — | — | 43% | 93% |
Cristian Javier Over 2.5 Strikeouts | 1% | — | 66% | — |
Taylor Trammell Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 65% |
Gavin Sheets Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 64% |
Daulton Varsho Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 63% |
Freddy Fermin Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 63% |
Cam Smith Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 62% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | 62% |
Luis Rengifo Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 61% |
Xander Bogaerts Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 61% |
Yordan Alvarez Under 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 59% |
Christian Walker Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 58% |
Isaac Paredes Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 58% |
Yainer Diaz Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 57% |
Randy Vasquez Over 2.5 Strikeouts | 1% | — | 59% | 56% |
Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 57% |
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | 56% |
Jake Cronenworth Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 56% |
Jose Altuve Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 56% |
Ty France Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 56% |
Total under 8.5 | — | — | 46% | 66% |
Jackson Merrill Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 55% |
Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 55% |
Jose Altuve Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 55% |
San Diego Padres spread plus 1.0 | — | — | — | 55% |
Manny Machado Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 54% |
Ty France Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 54% |
Yainer Diaz Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 54% |
Cristian Javier Under 3.5 Strikeouts | — | — | 55% | 52% |
Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 51% |
Luis Rengifo Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 50% |
Randy Vasquez Over 0.5 Strikeouts | — | — | 50% | — |
Randy Vasquez Under 0.5 Strikeouts | — | — | 50% | — |
Houston Astros spread minus 1.0 | — | — | — | 50% |
Houston Astros spread minus 2.5 | 1% | — | 71% | 28% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 50% |
Jeremy Pena Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 50% |
LaMonte Wade Jr. Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 50% |
Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 50% |
Daulton Varsho Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 49% |
Freddy Fermin Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 49% |
Total over 7.5 | 99% | — | 38% | 59% |
Cristian Javier Over 3.5 Strikeouts | 1% | — | 45% | 51% |
Cam Smith Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 47% |
Gavin Sheets Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 47% |
Taylor Trammell Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 47% |
Yordan Alvarez Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 47% |
Houston Astros spread plus 2.5 | — | — | 73% | 18% |
Manny Machado Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 45% | — | — | — |
Randy Vasquez Under 2.5 Strikeouts | — | — | 41% | 48% |
Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 44% |
Total over 8.5 | 99% | — | 46% | 38% |
Houston Astros spread plus 1.5 | — | — | 63% | 21% |
Jackson Merrill Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 42% | — | — | — |
Total under 7.5 | — | — | 38% | 46% |
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 13% | — | — | 63% |
Total over 9.0 | — | — | — | 38% |
Houston Astros spread minus 1.5 | 1% | — | 63% | 11% |
Randy Vasquez Over 3.5 Strikeouts | 1% | — | — | 35% |
Cristian Javier Under 2.5 Strikeouts | — | — | 34% | — |
Christian Walker Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 13% | — | — | 52% |
Total over 8.0 | — | — | — | 32% |
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 5% | — | — | 57% |
Yordan Alvarez Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 8% | — | — | 50% |
Houston Astros spread plus 1.0 | — | — | — | 29% |
Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 Home Runs | 1% | — | 25% | 30% |
Total under 5.5 | — | — | — | 27% |
Total over 9.5 | 1% | — | 43% | 11% |
Total under 4.5 | — | — | — | 24% |
Christian Walker Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 23% | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Home Runs | 99% | — | 19% | 25% |
Manny Machado Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 22% | — | — | — |
Houston Astros spread minus 4.5 | — | — | — | 21% |
Houston wins by over 3.5 runs | 1% | — | — | 21% |
Total under 6.5 | — | — | — | 21% |
Houston Astros spread plus 4.5 | — | — | — | 20% |
Yordan Alvarez Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 20% | — | — | — |
Houston Astros spread plus 3.5 | — | — | — | 19% |
Cristian Javier Under 1.5 Strikeouts | — | — | 19% | — |
Gavin Sheets Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 19% |
Total over 11.5 | 1% | — | — | 18% |
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Home Runs | 2% | — | 18% | 22% |
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Home Runs | 99% | — | 14% | 21% |
Christian Walker Over 0.5 Home Runs | 2% | — | 17% | 23% |
Christian Walker Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 17% | — | — | — |
Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 13% | 19% |
Total over 10.5 | 1% | — | — | 16% |
Isaac Paredes Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 14% | 17% |
Manny Machado Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 15% | — | — | — |
Ty France Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 11% | 19% |
Jake Cronenworth Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 13% | 17% |
Jose Altuve Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 12% | 17% |
Taylor Trammell Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 10% | 17% |
Jeremy Pena Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 10% | 16% |
Christian Walker Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 13% | — | — | — |
Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 9% | 17% |
Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 12% | — |
Total over 12.5 | 1% | — | — | 12% |
Freddy Fermin Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 12% |
Yainer Diaz Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 7% | 14% |
Cam Smith Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 5% | 14% |
Luis Rengifo Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 5% | 13% |
LaMonte Wade Jr. Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 8% |
Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 4% | — |
Houston Astros | 1% | 1% | 100% | 3% |
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Home Runs | 1% | — | 3% | — |
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Home Runs | 2% | — | 2% | — |
Daulton Varsho Over 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 2% | — |
Daulton Varsho Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 2% | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Home Runs | 1% | — | 2% | — |
Jackson Merrill Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 2% | — |
Ty France Over 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 2% | — |
Ty France Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 2% | — |
Yainer Diaz Over 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 2% | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Home Runs | 1% | — | 2% | — |
Christian Walker Over 1.5 Home Runs | 2% | — | 2% | — |
Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 2% | — |
Jose Altuve Over 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 2% | — |
Christian Walker Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 1% | — | — | — |
Cristian Javier Over 4.5 Strikeouts | 1% | — | — | — |
Cristian Javier Over 5.5 Strikeouts | 1% | — | — | — |
Cristian Javier Over 6.5 Strikeouts | 1% | — | — | — |
Randy Vasquez Over 4.5 Strikeouts | 1% | — | — | — |
Randy Vasquez Over 5.5 Strikeouts | 1% | — | — | — |
Randy Vasquez Over 6.5 Strikeouts | 1% | — | — | — |
Yainer Diaz Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 1% | — |
Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 1% | — | — | — |
Yordan Alvarez Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 1% | — | — | — |
Taylor Trammell Over 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 1% | — |
Cam Smith Over 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 1% | — |
Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 1% | — |
Luis Rengifo Over 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 0% | — |
San Diego Padres
99.4% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US and ProphetX.
KalshiIf San Diego wins the Houston vs San Diego professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 9, 2026 at 8:20 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Houston vs San Diego professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 9, 2026 at 8:20 PM EDT. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two days). If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two days away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
PolymarketIn the upcoming MLB game between the Houston Astros and San Diego Padres, scheduled for August 9 at 8:20PM ET: This market will resolve to "Houston Astros" if the Houston Astros win the game. This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Polymarket USThis market will settle to the winner of the Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres MLB game scheduled for 2026-08-09 at 8:20PM ET. Extra innings are included if played. If the game is delayed, postponed, or suspended and not rescheduled to a date within two weeks of the originally scheduled date, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from MLB.
Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
The last available prices are San Diego Padres: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 99.9¢ on Polymarket, 99.0¢ on ProphetX, 99.5¢ on Polymarket US; Houston Astros: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 99.9¢ on Polymarket, 3.1¢ on ProphetX, 0.5¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
The largest price difference shown across venues is 99.4 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.
For example, San Diego Padres at 99.4¢ implies about a 99.4% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.