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Live prediction market odds for Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics (9:40 PM ET). Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and ProphetX.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket / ProphetX

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Athletics Wins: Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics (9:40 PM ET)

MLB·Resolved 2026-09-23

This market resolved on 2026-09-23. Athletics was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 90%.

About This Market

Los Angeles Angels vs.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics (9:40 PM ET): MLB game held on 2026-09-23. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Final Closing Odds

4 platforms
Candidate
Kalshi
Polymarket US
Polymarket
ProphetX
Jeff McNeil Under 1.5 Home Runs
——99%—
Jeff McNeil Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——99%—
Jose Siri Under 5.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——99%—
Mike Trout Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Vaughn Grissom Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——99%—
Vaughn Grissom Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——99%—
Vaughn Grissom Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——99%—
Vaughn Grissom Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——99%—
Zach Neto Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Zack Gelof Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——99%—
Denzer Guzman Under 1.5 Home Runs
——98%—
Vaughn Grissom Under 1.5 Home Runs
——98%—
Lawrence Butler Under 1.5 Home Runs
——98%—
Zack Gelof Under 1.5 Home Runs
——98%—
Jose Siri Under 1.5 Home Runs
——98%—
Athletics spread plus 3.5
———97%
Athletics spread plus 2.5
——98%96%
Mike Trout Under 1.5 Home Runs
——97%—
Shea Langeliers Under 1.5 Home Runs
——97%—
Zach Neto Under 1.5 Home Runs
——96%—
Alika Williams Under 0.5 Home Runs
———96%
Brian Serven Under 0.5 Home Runs
———95%
Jonah Heim Under 0.5 Home Runs
———95%
Wade Meckler Under 0.5 Home Runs
———95%
Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 Home Runs
———94%
Donovan Walton Under 0.5 Home Runs
———94%
Bryce Teodosio Under 0.5 Home Runs
———94%
Jeffrey Springs Under 7.5 Strikeouts
——93%—
Athletics spread plus 4.5
———92%
Henry Bolte Under 0.5 Home Runs
———92%
Walbert Urena Under 7.5 Strikeouts
——92%—
Tommy White Under 0.5 Home Runs
———90%
Christian Moore Under 0.5 Home Runs
———90%
Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 Home Runs
——0%90%
Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 Home Runs
——89%—
Travis d'Arnaud Under 0.5 Home Runs
———89%
Jeffrey Springs Under 6.5 Strikeouts
——89%—
Oswald Peraza Under 0.5 Home Runs
———88%
Walbert Urena Under 6.5 Strikeouts
——87%—
Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 Home Runs
——85%89%
Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 Home Runs
——83%89%
Zack Gelof Under 0.5 Home Runs
——86%85%
Alika Williams Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———84%
Jonah Heim Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———84%
Oswald Peraza Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———84%
Tommy White Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———84%
Travis d'Arnaud Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———84%
Shea Langeliers Under 0.5 Home Runs
——82%83%
Jose Siri Under 0.5 Home Runs
——82%83%
Mike Trout Under 0.5 Home Runs
——1%82%
Total over 8.5
99%—73%91%
Zach Neto Under 0.5 Home Runs
——78%81%
Los Angeles Angels spread plus 5.5
———75%
Athletics spread plus 1.5
——56%91%
Los Angeles Angels spread plus 4.5
———73%
Athletics spread minus 1.5
100%—100%71%
Tyler Heineman Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———70%
Brian Serven Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———68%
Los Angeles Angels spread plus 1.0
———68%
Bryce Teodosio Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———68%
Walbert Urena Under 5.5 Strikeouts
——50%65%
Total under 7.5
———65%
Total over 9.5
99%—47%83%
Tyler Heineman Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———65%
Alika Williams Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———64%
Alika Williams Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———64%
Travis d'Arnaud Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———64%
Shea Langeliers Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———64%
Donovan Walton Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———63%
Henry Bolte Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———63%
Zach Neto Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
1%—1%63%
Los Angeles Angels spread plus 2.5
——80%46%
Athletics spread minus 2.5
99%—100%63%
AthleticsWINNER
100%100%45%80%
Carlos Cortes Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———62%
Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——99%62%
Total over 10.5
1%—54%69%
Los Angeles Angels spread plus 3.5
———61%
Zach Neto Under 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——0%61%
Total under 10.0
———59%
Jose Siri Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——0%58%
Wade Meckler Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———58%
Jeff McNeil Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——99%57%
Athletics spread plus 1.0
———57%
Travis d'Arnaud Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———57%
Christian Moore Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———56%
Zack Gelof Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——1%56%
Walbert Urena Under 2.5 Strikeouts
——56%—
Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———56%
Jeff McNeil Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——1%55%
Jeffrey Springs Over 2.5 Strikeouts
60%—50%—
Total under 12.5
———55%
Lawrence Butler Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——0%54%
Wade Meckler Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———54%
Walbert Urena Over 4.5 Strikeouts
8%—54%58%
Denzer Guzman Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———54%
Jose Siri Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———53%
Christian Moore Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———53%
Denzer Guzman Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——0%53%
Total over 9.0
———52%
Mike Trout Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
38%——65%
Los Angeles Angels spread plus 1.5
——71%32%
Walbert Urena Under 3.5 Strikeouts
——51%—
Zack Gelof Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——99%51%
Jeffrey Springs Under 4.5 Strikeouts
——50%52%
Jeffrey Springs Over 4.5 Strikeouts
14%—51%54%
Henry Bolte Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———50%
Total under 9.0
———50%
Mike Trout Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——1%49%
Vaughn Grissom Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——1%49%
Tommy White Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———48%
Los Angeles Angels spread minus 1.0
———48%
Donovan Walton Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———47%
Total under 11.5
———47%
Zach Neto Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——0%47%
Brian Serven Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———47%
Oswald Peraza Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———47%
Walbert Urena Under 4.5 Strikeouts
——46%48%
Bryce Teodosio Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———47%
Shea Langeliers Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——0%46%
Total under 10.5
——59%33%
Carlos Cortes Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———46%
Jonah Heim Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———45%
Travis d'Arnaud Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———45%
Total over 10.0
———44%
Tyler Heineman Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———43%
Walbert Urena Over 2.5 Strikeouts
41%—44%—
Alika Williams Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———42%
Total under 9.5
——53%23%
Los Angeles Angels
1%1%56%17%
Athletics spread minus 1.0
———35%
Walbert Urena Over 3.5 Strikeouts
21%—49%—
Zach Neto Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
18%——49%
Mike Trout Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
32%———
Total under 8.5
——40%21%
Athletics spread minus 4.5
———29%
Zach Neto Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
28%—1%—
Jeffrey Springs Over 3.5 Strikeouts
27%—50%—
Los Angeles Angels spread minus 1.5
1%—32%21%
Athletics spread minus 5.5
———26%
Mike Trout Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
25%———
Mike Trout Over 0.5 Home Runs
100%——25%
Zach Neto Over 0.5 Home Runs
1%—1%25%
Walbert Urena Over 5.5 Strikeouts
4%—50%46%
Shea Langeliers Over 0.5 Home Runs
———22%
Jose Siri Over 0.5 Home Runs
———20%
Christian Moore Over 0.5 Home Runs
———17%
Zach Neto Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
17%———
Denzer Guzman Over 0.5 Home Runs
———17%
Vaughn Grissom Over 0.5 Home Runs
——100%17%
Lawrence Butler Over 0.5 Home Runs
———16%
Oswald Peraza Over 0.5 Home Runs
———16%
Zack Gelof Over 0.5 Home Runs
———16%
Travis d'Arnaud Over 0.5 Home Runs
———16%
Los Angeles Angels spread minus 4.5
———12%
Jonah Heim Over 0.5 Home Runs
———11%
Donovan Walton Over 0.5 Home Runs
———11%
Tommy White Over 0.5 Home Runs
———11%
Henry Bolte Over 0.5 Home Runs
———10%
Brian Serven Over 0.5 Home Runs
———10%
Carlos Cortes Over 0.5 Home Runs
———10%
Jeffrey Springs Over 6.5 Strikeouts
9%—12%—
Bryce Teodosio Over 0.5 Home Runs
———10%
Jeff McNeil Over 0.5 Home Runs
———10%
Wade Meckler Over 0.5 Home Runs
———10%
Total under 6.5
———9%
Walbert Urena Over 6.5 Strikeouts
4%—13%—
Alika Williams Over 0.5 Home Runs
———8%
Walbert Urena Over 7.5 Strikeouts
6%—8%—
Mike Trout Over 1.5 Home Runs
7%—1%—
Los Angeles Angels spread minus 2.5
1%—5%8%
Jeffrey Springs Over 7.5 Strikeouts
3%—8%—
Mike Trout Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
4%———
Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——1%—
Jeffrey Springs Under 2.5 Strikeouts
——1%—
Mike Trout Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——1%—
Mike Trout Under 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——1%—
Vaughn Grissom Over 5.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——1%—
Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——1%—
Vaughn Grissom Under 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——1%—
Vaughn Grissom Under 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——1%—
Vaughn Grissom Under 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——1%—
Zach Neto Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——1%—
Zack Gelof Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——1%—
Zach Neto Over 1.5 Home Runs
1%—1%—
Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——0%—
Denzer Guzman Under 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——0%—
Denzer Guzman Under 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——0%—
Denzer Guzman Under 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——0%—
Denzer Guzman Under 5.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——0%—
Jeff McNeil Under 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——0%—
Jeff McNeil Under 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——0%—
Jeff McNeil Under 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——0%—
Jeff McNeil Under 5.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——0%—
Jose Siri Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——0%—
Jose Siri Under 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——0%—
Jose Siri Under 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——0%—
Jose Siri Under 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——0%—
Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——0%—
Lawrence Butler Under 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——0%—
Lawrence Butler Under 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——0%—
Lawrence Butler Under 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——0%—
Lawrence Butler Under 5.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——0%—
Mike Trout Under 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——0%—
Mike Trout Under 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——0%—
Mike Trout Under 5.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——0%—
Shea Langeliers Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——0%—
Shea Langeliers Under 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——0%—
Shea Langeliers Under 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——0%—
Shea Langeliers Under 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——0%—
Shea Langeliers Under 5.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——0%—
Vaughn Grissom Under 5.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——0%—
Zach Neto Under 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——0%—
Zach Neto Under 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——0%—
Zach Neto Under 5.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——0%—
Zack Gelof Under 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——0%—
Zack Gelof Under 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——0%—
Zack Gelof Under 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——0%—
Zack Gelof Under 5.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——0%—
A's wins by over 3.5 runs
————
Denzer Guzman Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————
Denzer Guzman Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
Denzer Guzman Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————
Denzer Guzman Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————
Denzer Guzman Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————
Denzer Guzman Over 5.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————
Jeff McNeil Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
Jeff McNeil Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————
Jeff McNeil Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————
Jeff McNeil Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————
Jeff McNeil Over 5.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————
Jeffrey Springs Over 0.5 Earned Runs
————
Jeffrey Springs Over 1.5 Earned Runs
————
Jeffrey Springs Over 14.5 Pitcher Outs
————
Jeffrey Springs Over 2.5 Earned Runs
————
Jeffrey Springs Over 3.5 Earned Runs
————
Jeffrey Springs Over 4.5 Earned Runs
————
Jeffrey Springs Over 5.5 Strikeouts
————
Jeffrey Springs Over 8.5 Strikeouts
————
Jeffrey Springs Under 3.5 Strikeouts
——50%—
Jose Siri Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————
Jose Siri Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
Jose Siri Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————
Jose Siri Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————
Jose Siri Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————
Jose Siri Over 5.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————
Lawrence Butler Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————
Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
Lawrence Butler Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————
Lawrence Butler Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————
Lawrence Butler Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————
Lawrence Butler Over 5.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————
Los Angeles A wins by over 3.5 runs
————
Mike Trout Over 0.5 Hits
————
Mike Trout Over 0.5 RBIs
————
Mike Trout Over 0.5 Stolen Bases
————
Mike Trout Over 1.5 Hits
————
Mike Trout Over 1.5 RBIs
————
Mike Trout Over 1.5 Total Bases
————
Mike Trout Over 2.5 Hits
————
Mike Trout Over 2.5 RBIs
————
Mike Trout Over 2.5 Total Bases
————
Mike Trout Over 3.5 Hits
————
Mike Trout Over 3.5 Total Bases
————
Mike Trout Over 4.5 Total Bases
————
Mike Trout Over 5.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————
Mike Trout Over 5.5 Total Bases
————
Over 13.5 runs scored
————
Over 3.5 runs scored
————
Over 4.5 runs scored
————
Over 5.5 runs scored
————
Shea Langeliers Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————
Shea Langeliers Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
Shea Langeliers Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————
Shea Langeliers Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————
Shea Langeliers Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————
Shea Langeliers Over 5.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————
Total over 11.5
————
Total over 12.5
————
Total over 6.5
————
Total over 7.5
————
Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
Walbert Urena Over 0.5 Earned Runs
————
Walbert Urena Over 1.5 Earned Runs
————
Walbert Urena Over 17.5 Pitcher Outs
————
Walbert Urena Over 2.5 Earned Runs
————
Walbert Urena Over 3.5 Earned Runs
————
Walbert Urena Over 4.5 Earned Runs
————
Walbert Urena Over 8.5 Strikeouts
————
Zach Neto Over 0.5 Hits
————
Zach Neto Over 0.5 RBIs
————
Zach Neto Over 0.5 Stolen Bases
————
Zach Neto Over 1.5 Hits
————
Zach Neto Over 1.5 RBIs
————
Zach Neto Over 1.5 Total Bases
————
Zach Neto Over 2.5 Hits
————
Zach Neto Over 2.5 RBIs
————
Zach Neto Over 2.5 Total Bases
————
Zach Neto Over 3.5 Hits
————
Zach Neto Over 3.5 Total Bases
————
Zach Neto Over 4.5 Total Bases
————
Zach Neto Over 5.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————
Zach Neto Over 5.5 Total Bases
————
Zack Gelof Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
Zack Gelof Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————
Zack Gelof Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————
Zack Gelof Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————
Zack Gelof Over 5.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
ProphetXProphetX
ProphetX Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread55.0%
Platforms4
Candidates2
Winner

Athletics

81.0% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics (9:40 PM ET)

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US and ProphetX.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If A's wins the Los Angeles A vs A's professional baseball game originally scheduled for Sep 23, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the Los Angeles A vs A's professional baseball game originally scheduled for Sep 23, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two days). If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two days away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

In the upcoming MLB game between the Los Angeles Angels and Athletics, scheduled for September 23 at 9:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Los Angeles Angels" if the Los Angeles Angels win the game. This market will resolve to "Athletics" if the Athletics win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to the winner of the Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics MLB game scheduled for 2026-09-23 at 9:40PM ET. Extra innings are included if played. If the game is delayed, postponed, or suspended and not rescheduled to a date within two weeks of the originally scheduled date, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from MLB.

ProphetXProphetX
Primary Rule

Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules

Resolution Oracles
ProphetX Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics (9:40 PM ET) prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.

What were the last available Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics (9:40 PM ET) odds?

The last available prices are Athletics: 99.5¢ on Kalshi, 44.5¢ on Polymarket, 80.3¢ on ProphetX, 99.5¢ on Polymarket US; Los Angeles Angels: 0.5¢ on Kalshi, 55.5¢ on Polymarket, 16.9¢ on ProphetX, 0.5¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.

Why do Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics (9:40 PM ET) odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 55.0 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics (9:40 PM ET) prediction market payouts work?

For example, Athletics at 81.0¢ implies about a 81.0% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.

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