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Live prediction market odds for Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds (6:40 PM ET). Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and ProphetX.

Browse historical results
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket / ProphetX

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Miami Marlins Wins: Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds (6:40 PM ET)

MLB·Resolved 2026-08-15

This market resolved on 2026-08-15. Miami Marlins was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 82%.

About This Market

Miami Marlins vs.

Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds (6:40 PM ET) — MLB game held on 2026-08-15. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Final Closing Odds

4 platforms
Candidate
Kalshi
Polymarket US
Polymarket
ProphetX
Ryan Gusto Over 4.5 Strikeouts
99%——99%
Brady Singer Over 1.5 Strikeouts
99%———
Dane Myers Under 0.5 Home Runs
——50%99%
Ke'Bryan Hayes Under 0.5 Home Runs
———99%
Over 3.5 runs scored
99%———
Over 4.5 runs scored
99%———
Owen Caissie Under 0.5 Home Runs
——49%99%
Ryan Gusto Over 1.5 Strikeouts
99%———
Ryan Gusto Over 2.5 Strikeouts
99%———
Ryan Gusto Over 3.5 Strikeouts
99%———
Ryan Gusto Over 5.5 Strikeouts
99%———
Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 Home Runs
——50%99%
Esteury Ruiz Under 0.5 Home Runs
———99%
Graham Pauley Under 0.5 Home Runs
———99%
Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 Home Runs
——50%99%
Matt McLain Under 0.5 Home Runs
———99%
Noelvi Marte Under 0.5 Home Runs
———99%
Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 Home Runs
——0%99%
Agustin Ramirez Under 0.5 Home Runs
———95%
Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 Home Runs
——50%95%
Javier Sanoja Under 0.5 Home Runs
——0%95%
Hector Rodriguez Under 0.5 Home Runs
——95%93%
Joe Mack Under 0.5 Home Runs
———93%
Sal Stewart Under 0.5 Home Runs
——84%99%
Miami Marlins spread plus 3.5
———90%
Griffin Conine Under 0.5 Home Runs
——81%99%
Miami Marlins spread plus 4.5
———89%
Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 Home Runs
——79%99%
Total under 12.5
———89%
JJ Bleday Under 0.5 Home Runs
——76%99%
Brady Singer Over 2.5 Strikeouts
99%—86%—
Miami Marlins spread minus 3.5
99%——86%
Owen Caissie Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———83%
Brady Singer Under 5.5 Strikeouts
———83%
Miami Marlins spread plus 1.5
——72%92%
Total over 6.5
99%——80%
Miami Marlins spread plus 2.5
——75%83%
Brady Singer Over 3.5 Strikeouts
99%—75%—
JJ Bleday Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———74%
Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 Home Runs
——49%96%
Cincinnati Reds spread plus 4.5
———72%
Total over 5.5
99%——71%
Esteury Ruiz Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———70%
Dane Myers Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———68%
Joe Mack Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———68%
Esteury Ruiz Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———68%
Otto Lopez Under 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———68%
Total under 9.0
———68%
Graham Pauley Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———66%
Griffin Conine Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———66%
Owen Caissie Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———66%
Matt McLain Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———66%
Miami Marlins spread minus 1.5
99%—44%87%
Noelvi Marte Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———65%
Miami MarlinsWINNER
99%40%65%98%
Ryan Gusto Under 4.5 Strikeouts
——0%65%
Total over 8.5
99%—63%66%
Elly De La Cruz Under 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———64%
Ke'Bryan Hayes Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———64%
Heriberto Hernandez Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———63%
Matt McLain Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———63%
Xavier Edwards Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———63%
Sal Stewart Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———62%
Elly De La Cruz Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———61%
Total over 7.5
99%——61%
Eugenio Suarez Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———60%
Hector Rodriguez Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———60%
Ke'Bryan Hayes Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———60%
Miami Marlins spread plus 1.0
———60%
Otto Lopez Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———60%
Brady Singer Over 4.5 Strikeouts
1%——60%
Agustin Ramirez Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———58%
Total under 11.5
———58%
Cincinnati Reds spread plus 1.0
———58%
Tyler Stephenson Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———57%
Total under 10.5
——56%57%
Brady Singer Over 5.5 Strikeouts
1%——56%
Jakob Marsee Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———54%
Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———53%
Javier Sanoja Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———53%
Total over 9.5
99%—45%61%
Eugenio Suarez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———52%
Jakob Marsee Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———52%
Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———52%
Miami Marlins spread minus 2.5
99%—22%82%
Joe Mack Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———51%
Otto Lopez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———51%
Cincinnati Reds spread plus 2.5
——78%23%
Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———50%
Ke'Bryan Hayes Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———50%
Agustin Ramirez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———50%
Hector Rodriguez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———50%
Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———50%
Owen Caissie Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———49%
Sal Stewart Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———49%
Total over 10.5
99%—44%53%
Matt McLain Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———47%
Griffin Conine Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———47%
Noelvi Marte Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———47%
Otto Lopez Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———47%
Total over 11.5
99%——47%
Total under 9.5
——55%38%
Graham Pauley Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———46%
Ke'Bryan Hayes Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———46%
Miami Marlins spread minus 1.0
———44%
Total under 7.5
———44%
Matt McLain Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———43%
Brady Singer Under 4.5 Strikeouts
——0%42%
Cincinnati Reds spread minus 1.0
———41%
Dane Myers Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———41%
Esteury Ruiz Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———41%
Total over 9.0
———41%
Esteury Ruiz Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———41%
Total under 8.5
——37%42%
Elly De La Cruz Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
38%——40%
Cincinnati Reds spread plus 1.5
——56%21%
Owen Caissie Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———38%
JJ Bleday Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———35%
Cincinnati Reds
1%61%35%3%
Total under 5.5
———33%
Miami Marlins spread minus 4.5
———33%
Total under 6.5
———32%
Eugenio Suarez Over 0.5 Home Runs
——52%7%
Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
2%——50%
Brady Singer Under 3.5 Strikeouts
——25%—
Cincinnati Reds spread minus 2.5
1%—25%24%
Cincinnati Reds spread minus 1.5
1%—28%12%
Cincinnati Reds spread plus 3.5
———20%
Griffin Conine Over 0.5 Home Runs
——19%16%
JJ Bleday Over 0.5 Home Runs
——24%10%
Total over 12.5
1%——16%
Joe Mack Over 0.5 Home Runs
———15%
Heriberto Hernandez Over 0.5 Home Runs
——51%15%
Cincinnati wins by over 3.5 runs
1%——14%
Cincinnati Reds spread minus 4.5
———14%
Brady Singer Under 2.5 Strikeouts
——14%—
Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 Home Runs
——51%13%
Agustin Ramirez Over 0.5 Home Runs
———13%
Elly De La Cruz Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
13%———
Sal Stewart Over 0.5 Home Runs
——16%7%
Graham Pauley Over 0.5 Home Runs
———11%
Esteury Ruiz Over 0.5 Home Runs
———10%
Matt McLain Over 0.5 Home Runs
———10%
Javier Sanoja Over 0.5 Home Runs
———10%
Hector Rodriguez Over 0.5 Home Runs
——5%14%
Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 Home Runs
2%—21%7%
Ke'Bryan Hayes Over 0.5 Home Runs
———7%
Noelvi Marte Over 0.5 Home Runs
———7%
Xavier Edwards Over 0.5 Home Runs
———7%
Owen Caissie Over 0.5 Home Runs
——51%6%
Dane Myers Over 0.5 Home Runs
——51%6%
Otto Lopez Over 0.5 Home Runs
———6%
Tyler Stephenson Over 0.5 Home Runs
——51%6%
Brady Singer Over 6.5 Strikeouts
1%———
Brady Singer Over 7.5 Strikeouts
1%———
Brady Singer Over 8.5 Strikeouts
1%———
Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
1%———
Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 Home Runs
1%———
Over 13.5 runs scored
1%———
Ryan Gusto Over 6.5 Strikeouts
1%———
Ryan Gusto Over 7.5 Strikeouts
1%———
Ryan Gusto Over 8.5 Strikeouts
1%———
Dane Myers Under 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Elly De La Cruz Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
0%———
Elly De La Cruz Under 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Eugenio Suarez Under 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Griffin Conine Under 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Hector Rodriguez Under 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Heriberto Hernandez Under 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Javier Sanoja Under 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
JJ Bleday Under 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Otto Lopez Under 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Owen Caissie Under 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Ryan Gusto Under 2.5 Strikeouts
——0%—
Ryan Gusto Under 3.5 Strikeouts
——0%—
Sal Stewart Under 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Tyler Stephenson Under 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Xavier Edwards Under 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Dane Myers Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
Eugenio Suarez Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
Griffin Conine Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
Hector Rodriguez Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
Jakob Marsee Over 1.5 Home Runs
——51%—
Jakob Marsee Under 1.5 Home Runs
——50%—
Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
JJ Bleday Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
Otto Lopez Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
Otto Lopez Under 0.5 Home Runs
——0%99%
Owen Caissie Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
Sal Stewart Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 Home Runs
————

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
ProphetXProphetX
ProphetX Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread59.5%
Platforms4
Candidates2
Winner

Miami Marlins

75.4% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds (6:40 PM ET)

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US and ProphetX.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Miami wins the Miami vs Cincinnati professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 15, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the Miami vs Cincinnati professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 15, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two days). If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two days away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

In the upcoming MLB game between the Miami Marlins and Cincinnati Reds, scheduled for August 15 at 6:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game. This market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds" if the Cincinnati Reds win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to the winner of the Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds MLB game scheduled for 2026-08-15 at 6:40PM ET. Extra innings are included if played. If the game is delayed, postponed, or suspended and not rescheduled to a date within two weeks of the originally scheduled date, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from MLB.

ProphetXProphetX
Primary Rule

Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules

Resolution Oracles
ProphetX Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds (6:40 PM ET) prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.

What were the last available Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds (6:40 PM ET) odds?

The last available prices are Miami Marlins: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 65.0¢ on Polymarket, 98.1¢ on ProphetX, 39.5¢ on Polymarket US; Cincinnati Reds: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 35.0¢ on Polymarket, 2.5¢ on ProphetX, 60.5¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.

Why do Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds (6:40 PM ET) odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 59.5 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds (6:40 PM ET) prediction market payouts work?

For example, Miami Marlins at 75.4¢ implies about a 75.4% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds
No price history available