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Live prediction market odds for Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres (9:40 PM ET). Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and ProphetX.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket / ProphetX

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San Diego Padres Wins: Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres (9:40 PM ET)

MLB·Resolved 2026-08-21

This market resolved on 2026-08-21. San Diego Padres was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.

About This Market

Minnesota Twins vs.

Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres (9:40 PM ET) — MLB game held on 2026-08-21. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Final Closing Odds

4 platforms
Candidate
Kalshi
Polymarket US
Polymarket
ProphetX
San Diego PadresWINNER
99%99%100%99%
Brooks Lee Under 0.5 Home Runs
———99%
Byron Buxton Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Connor Prielipp Over 0.5 Earned Runs
99%———
Connor Prielipp Over 1.5 Earned Runs
99%———
Connor Prielipp Over 15.5 Pitcher Outs
99%———
Connor Prielipp Over 2.5 Earned Runs
99%———
Connor Prielipp Over 2.5 Strikeouts
99%———
Connor Prielipp Over 3.5 Earned Runs
99%———
Connor Prielipp Over 4.5 Earned Runs
99%———
Connor Prielipp Over 6.5 Strikeouts
99%———
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Hits
99%———
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 RBIs
99%———
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits
99%———
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases
99%———
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 2.5 Hits
99%———
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 2.5 Total Bases
99%———
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 3.5 Total Bases
99%———
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 Home Runs
——99%99%
Kaelen Culpepper Under 0.5 Home Runs
———99%
Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 Home Runs
———99%
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Hits
99%———
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Manny Machado Over 0.5 RBIs
99%———
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Hits
99%———
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Total Bases
99%———
Manny Machado Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Manny Machado Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Over 2.5 runs scored
99%———
Randy Vasquez Over 1.5 Earned Runs
99%———
Randy Vasquez Over 14.5 Pitcher Outs
99%———
Austin Hays Under 0.5 Home Runs
———99%
Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 Home Runs
———99%
Kody Clemens Under 0.5 Home Runs
——98%99%
Royce Lewis Under 0.5 Home Runs
——98%99%
Connor Prielipp Over 4.5 Strikeouts
99%—1%98%
Josh Bell Under 0.5 Home Runs
———98%
Manny Machado Under 0.5 Home Runs
——93%99%
Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 Home Runs
——92%99%
Ty France Under 0.5 Home Runs
——99%94%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 Home Runs
——85%99%
Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 Home Runs
——85%99%
Total over 3.5
99%——91%
Total over 5.5
99%——88%
San Diego Padres spread minus 3.5
91%——84%
Josh Bell Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———85%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
85%———
Kaelen Culpepper Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———84%
Total over 4.5
99%——83%
San Diego Padres spread plus 2.5
——75%90%
Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———82%
Total under 11.5
———81%
Byron Buxton Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———81%
Luke Keaschall Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———81%
Byron Buxton Under 0.5 Home Runs
——80%99%
Total over 6.5
99%——79%
Jake Cronenworth Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———78%
Total under 9.5
——64%93%
Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 Home Runs
——50%99%
San Diego Padres spread plus 1.5
——66%81%
Luis Campusano Under 0.5 Home Runs
——50%91%
Randy Vasquez Over 1.5 Strikeouts
99%—70%—
Total under 10.5
———69%
Connor Prielipp Under 5.5 Strikeouts
——99%69%
Total under 8.5
——53%80%
Brooks Lee Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———66%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%——66%
Jackson Merrill Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———66%
San Diego Padres spread plus 1.0
———66%
Royce Lewis Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———65%
Total over 7.5
99%—55%74%
San Diego Padres spread minus 1.5
99%—35%94%
Austin Hays Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———63%
Luis Campusano Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———63%
Sung-Mun Song Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———63%
Randy Vasquez Over 2.5 Strikeouts
99%—1%61%
Ryan Jeffers Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———60%
Kody Clemens Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———59%
Luis Rengifo Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———58%
Byron Buxton Over 1.5 Hits
58%———
Ty France Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———57%
Manny Machado Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———56%
San Diego Padres spread minus 2.5
99%—27%85%
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%——55%
San Diego Padres spread minus 1.0
———55%
Total over 8.0
———55%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———54%
Luis Rengifo Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———53%
Ty France Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———53%
Kody Clemens Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———52%
Total under 8.0
———51%
Minnesota Twins spread plus 1.0
———50%
Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———50%
Austin Hays Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———49%
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
50%——46%
Randy Vasquez Under 2.5 Strikeouts
——43%52%
Royce Lewis Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———47%
Ryan Jeffers Over 0.5 Home Runs
——85%8%
Minnesota Twins spread plus 2.5
——73%19%
Luis Campusano Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———46%
Sung-Mun Song Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———46%
Byron Buxton Over 0.5 Home Runs
1%—80%10%
Minnesota Twins spread minus 2.5
1%—75%14%
Trevor Larnach Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———44%
Brooks Lee Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———44%
Byron Buxton Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
52%——33%
Total under 7.5
——55%29%
Minnesota Twins spread minus 1.0
———39%
Trevor Larnach Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———38%
Byron Buxton Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
37%———
Byron Buxton Over 0.5 RBIs
36%———
Total over 8.5
1%—47%23%
Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———33%
Luke Keaschall Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———33%
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 RBIs
33%———
Jackson Merrill Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
33%———
Randy Vasquez Over 3.5 Strikeouts
1%——33%
Manny Machado Over 2.5 Total Bases
32%———
Luis Campusano Over 0.5 Home Runs
——50%13%
Kaelen Culpepper Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———30%
Josh Bell Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———29%
Total under 6.5
———29%
Connor Prielipp Over 7.5 Strikeouts
28%———
Luis Rengifo Over 0.5 Home Runs
——50%5%
Byron Buxton Over 0.5 Hits
24%———
Minnesota Twins spread plus 1.5
——35%12%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Stolen Bases
24%———
Total over 9.5
1%—37%10%
Total over 11.5
1%——23%
Minnesota Twins spread minus 1.5
2%—65%22%
Manny Machado Over 2.5 Hits
22%———
Minnesota Twins spread plus 3.5
———21%
Ty France Over 0.5 Home Runs
——1%20%
Total over 10.5
1%——20%
Total under 5.5
———19%
Manny Machado Over 3.5 Total Bases
19%———
Total under 4.5
———17%
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Hits
16%———
Jackson Merrill Over 3.5 Total Bases
16%———
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
14%———
Manny Machado Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
13%———
Total under 3.5
———12%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 RBIs
12%———
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 RBIs
12%———
Jackson Merrill Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
12%———
Minnesota Twins spread minus 3.5
2%——21%
Byron Buxton Over 1.5 Total Bases
11%———
Byron Buxton Over 3.5 Total Bases
11%———
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 4.5 Total Bases
11%———
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Home Runs
2%—19%—
Manny Machado Over 4.5 Total Bases
10%———
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Home Runs
7%—85%9%
Jake Cronenworth Over 0.5 Home Runs
———9%
Josh Bell Over 0.5 Home Runs
———9%
Royce Lewis Over 0.5 Home Runs
——1%9%
Byron Buxton Over 0.5 Stolen Bases
8%———
Sung-Mun Song Over 0.5 Home Runs
———8%
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Home Runs
1%—8%6%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 5.5 Total Bases
6%———
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Total Bases
6%———
Jackson Merrill Over 2.5 Total Bases
6%———
Luke Keaschall Over 0.5 Home Runs
———6%
Manny Machado Over 2.5 RBIs
6%———
Trevor Larnach Over 0.5 Home Runs
——8%3%
Kody Clemens Over 0.5 Home Runs
——2%9%
Connor Prielipp Over 9.5 Strikeouts
5%———
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Home Runs
4%—1%5%
Kaelen Culpepper Over 0.5 Home Runs
———4%
Brooks Lee Over 0.5 Home Runs
———3%
Connor Prielipp Over 8.5 Strikeouts
3%———
Minnesota Twins
1%1%0%3%
Randy Vasquez Over 4.5 Strikeouts
3%———
Randy Vasquez Over 5.5 Strikeouts
3%———
Randy Vasquez Over 6.5 Strikeouts
3%———
Byron Buxton Over 1.5 Home Runs
3%—2%—
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Hits
2%———
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Home Runs
2%—1%—
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Home Runs
2%—1%—
Manny Machado Over 3.5 Hits
2%———
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Stolen Bases
1%———
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Stolen Bases
1%———
Over 12.5 runs scored
1%———
Byron Buxton Over 1.5 RBIs
0%———
Byron Buxton Over 2.5 Hits
0%———
Byron Buxton Over 2.5 Total Bases
0%———
Byron Buxton Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
0%———
Byron Buxton Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
0%———
Byron Buxton Over 4.5 Total Bases
0%———
Byron Buxton Over 5.5 Total Bases
0%———
Jackson Merrill Over 2.5 Hits
0%———
Jackson Merrill Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
0%———
Jackson Merrill Over 4.5 Total Bases
0%———
Manny Machado Over 1.5 RBIs
0%———
Manny Machado Over 5.5 Total Bases
0%———
Connor Prielipp Over 3.5 Strikeouts
99%—1%—
Connor Prielipp Over 5.5 Strikeouts
99%—1%99%

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
ProphetXProphetX
ProphetX Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.8%
Platforms4
Candidates2
Winner

San Diego Padres

99.2% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres (9:40 PM ET)

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US and ProphetX.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Minnesota wins the Minnesota vs San Diego professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 21, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the Minnesota vs San Diego professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 21, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two days). If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two days away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

In the upcoming MLB game between the Minnesota Twins and San Diego Padres, scheduled for August 21 at 9:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Minnesota Twins" if the Minnesota Twins win the game. This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to the winner of the Minnesota Twins vs San Diego Padres MLB game scheduled for 2026-08-21 at 9:40PM ET. Extra innings are included if played. If the game is delayed, postponed, or suspended and not rescheduled to a date within two weeks of the originally scheduled date, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from MLB.

ProphetXProphetX
Primary Rule

Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules

Resolution Oracles
ProphetX Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres (9:40 PM ET) prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.

What were the last available Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres (9:40 PM ET) odds?

The last available prices are San Diego Padres: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 99.8¢ on Polymarket, 99.0¢ on ProphetX, 99.0¢ on Polymarket US; Minnesota Twins: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.2¢ on Polymarket, 3.0¢ on ProphetX, 1.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.

Why do Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres (9:40 PM ET) odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 2.8 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres (9:40 PM ET) prediction market payouts work?

For example, San Diego Padres at 99.2¢ implies about a 99.2% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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