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New York Yankees vs.
New York Yankees vs. San Diego Padres (7:15 PM ET): MLB game held on 2026-09-05. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Live prediction market odds for New York Yankees vs. San Diego Padres (7:15 PM ET). Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and ProphetX.
MLB·Resolved 2026-09-05
This market resolved on 2026-09-05. New York Yankees was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
New York Yankees vs.
New York Yankees vs. San Diego Padres (7:15 PM ET): MLB game held on 2026-09-05. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate | ![]() | ![]() | |
|---|---|---|---|
Cody Bellinger Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | 100% | — |
Jackson Merrill Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | 100% | — |
New York YankeesWINNER | 99% | 100% | 99% |
Carlos Rodon Under 6.5 Strikeouts | — | 99% | — |
Robbie Ray Under 3.5 Strikeouts | — | 99% | — |
New York Yankees spread plus 1.5 | — | 100% | 98% |
San Diego Padres spread plus 4.5 | — | — | 97% |
Amed Rosario Over 5.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 95% | — |
Total over 5.5 | 100% | — | 95% |
Total under 10.5 | — | — | 94% |
Total under 11.5 | — | — | 93% |
New York Yankees spread plus 3.5 | — | — | 93% |
New York Yankees spread minus 1.5 | 99% | 100% | 92% |
Total under 9.5 | — | — | 92% |
New York Yankees spread plus 2.5 | — | 94% | 88% |
Manny Machado Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | 90% | 92% |
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 91% |
New York Yankees spread plus 4.5 | — | — | 90% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Home Runs | 1% | 90% | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Home Runs | 1% | 90% | — |
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Home Runs | 1% | 90% | — |
Ty France Over 1.5 Home Runs | — | 90% | — |
Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | 0% | 90% |
Ty France Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | 99% | 89% |
Cody Bellinger Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | 99% | 89% |
Austin Hays Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | 81% | 93% |
Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | 84% | 89% |
Paul Goldschmidt Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | 0% | 87% |
Total under 8.5 | — | 83% | 84% |
Carlos Rodon Over 2.5 Strikeouts | 99% | 82% | — |
Carlos Rodon Under 7.5 Strikeouts | — | 82% | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | 80% | 82% |
Austin Hays Under 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 81% | — |
Austin Hays Under 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 81% | — |
Austin Hays Under 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 81% | — |
Ben Rice Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | 81% | — |
Ben Rice Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | 81% | — |
Cody Bellinger Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | 81% | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 81% | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 81% | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 5.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 81% | — |
George Lombard Jr. Under 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 81% | — |
Jackson Merrill Under 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 81% | — |
Jackson Merrill Under 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 81% | — |
Manny Machado Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | 81% | — |
Paul Goldschmidt Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 81% | — |
Ty France Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | 81% | — |
Ty France Under 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 81% | — |
Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 81% | — |
Xander Bogaerts Under 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 81% | — |
Xander Bogaerts Under 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 81% | — |
Austin Hays Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 81% | 75% |
Total under 6.5 | — | 100% | 78% |
Austin Hays Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 81% | 73% |
Ali Sanchez Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | 75% |
Jake Cronenworth Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | 75% |
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | 75% |
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | 75% |
Samad Taylor Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | 75% |
George Lombard Jr. Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 81% | 69% |
Amed Rosario Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 81% | 62% |
Jackson Merrill Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 81% | 58% |
Ty France Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 81% | 55% |
Xander Bogaerts Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 81% | 55% |
San Diego Padres spread plus 1.0 | — | — | 66% |
Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 81% | 50% |
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | 81% | 50% |
Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | 81% | 48% |
Ben Rice Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | 81% | 47% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 81% | 47% |
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 59% | — | 68% |
Jake Cronenworth Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | 63% |
Heliot Ramos Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | 63% |
Jose Caballero Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | 63% |
Freddy Fermin Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | 62% |
Robbie Ray Over 4.5 Strikeouts | 62% | 1% | — |
Total under 8.0 | — | — | 61% |
Carlos Rodon Over 5.5 Strikeouts | 99% | 82% | 38% |
Total under 7.0 | — | — | 60% |
New York Yankees spread plus 1.0 | — | — | 59% |
Ali Sanchez Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | 56% |
San Diego Padres spread minus 2.5 | 1% | 94% | 16% |
Robbie Ray Under 5.5 Strikeouts | — | 55% | 55% |
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 36% | — | 73% |
Cody Bellinger Over 0.5 Home Runs | 1% | 90% | 16% |
Amed Rosario Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | 90% | 15% |
Paul Goldschmidt Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | 90% | 14% |
Carlos Rodon Over 4.5 Strikeouts | 99% | 46% | 55% |
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Home Runs | 1% | 84% | 16% |
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Home Runs | 99% | 82% | 16% |
Amed Rosario Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | 10% | 88% |
New York Yankees spread minus 2.5 | 100% | 15% | 81% |
Carlos Rodon Under 4.5 Strikeouts | — | 46% | 49% |
Austin Hays Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 19% | 75% |
Robbie Ray Over 5.5 Strikeouts | 34% | 55% | 47% |
Freddy Fermin Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | 47% |
Ben Rice Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | 10% | 83% |
Robbie Ray Under 6.5 Strikeouts | — | 10% | 83% |
Total under 7.5 | — | 3% | 89% |
Jose Caballero Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | 46% |
San Diego Padres spread minus 1.0 | — | — | 46% |
Total over 7.0 | — | — | 45% |
Total over 8.0 | — | — | 45% |
Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | 44% |
Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | 44% |
Carlos Rodon Under 5.5 Strikeouts | — | 18% | 64% |
Total over 8.5 | 1% | 60% | 20% |
Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | 40% |
New York Yankees spread minus 1.0 | — | — | 39% |
Ben Rice Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 19% | 58% |
Cody Bellinger Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 19% | 58% |
Manny Machado Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 19% | 58% |
Paul Goldschmidt Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 19% | 57% |
Samad Taylor Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | 36% |
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 35% | 19% | 48% |
Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 19% | 51% |
Ty France Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 19% | 50% |
Austin Hays Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 19% | 46% |
Amed Rosario Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 19% | 46% |
George Lombard Jr. Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 19% | 40% |
Total under 4.5 | — | — | 29% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 28% | 19% | 56% |
Total over 6.5 | 1% | 0% | 26% |
Carlos Rodon Over 3.5 Strikeouts | 99% | 23% | — |
Carlos Rodon Under 3.5 Strikeouts | — | 23% | — |
Ben Rice Over 0.5 Home Runs | 1% | 19% | 27% |
San Diego Padres spread plus 3.5 | — | — | 22% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Home Runs | 1% | 19% | 21% |
San Diego Padres spread plus 2.5 | — | 15% | 24% |
Amed Rosario Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 19% | — |
Ben Rice Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 19% | — |
Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 Home Runs | 1% | 19% | — |
Cody Bellinger Over 5.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 19% | — |
Cody Bellinger Under 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 19% | — |
Manny Machado Under 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 19% | — |
Ty France Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 19% | — |
Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 Home Runs | — | 19% | — |
Xander Bogaerts Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 19% | — |
Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 19% | — |
Carlos Rodon Under 2.5 Strikeouts | — | 18% | — |
Robbie Ray Over 3.5 Strikeouts | 1% | 18% | — |
Robbie Ray Over 6.5 Strikeouts | 3% | 18% | 33% |
Robbie Ray Over 7.5 Strikeouts | 1% | 18% | — |
Heliot Ramos Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 17% |
Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | 19% | 12% |
Cody Bellinger Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 10% | 19% | — |
Manny Machado Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 10% | 19% | — |
Ty France Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 14% |
Jackson Merrill Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 9% | 19% | — |
Total under 3.5 | — | — | 14% |
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 0.5 Home Runs | 12% | — | 15% |
Austin Hays Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | 0% | 13% |
San Diego Padres spread minus 4.5 | — | — | 13% |
Total over 9.5 | 1% | — | 13% |
San Diego Padres spread plus 1.5 | — | 100% | 12% |
Carlos Rodon Over 7.5 Strikeouts | 3% | 18% | — |
Jose Caballero Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 10% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | 10% | — |
Manny Machado Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | 10% | — |
Paul Goldschmidt Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | 10% | — |
Robbie Ray Under 4.5 Strikeouts | — | 10% | — |
Xander Bogaerts Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | 10% | — |
George Lombard Jr. Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | 1% | 10% |
San Diego Padres | 1% | 17% | 3% |
Freddy Fermin Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 10% |
Total under 5.5 | — | — | 9% |
Total over 7.5 | 1% | 3% | 15% |
Jake Cronenworth Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 8% |
New York Yankees spread minus 4.5 | — | — | 8% |
San Diego Padres spread minus 1.5 | 1% | 0% | 6% |
Amed Rosario Under 5.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 5% | — |
Samad Taylor Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 5% |
Ben Rice Over 1.5 Home Runs | 2% | 0% | — |
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 1.5 Home Runs | 2% | — | — |
Amed Rosario Over 1.5 Home Runs | — | 1% | — |
Amed Rosario Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | 1% | — |
Austin Hays Over 1.5 Home Runs | — | 1% | — |
Austin Hays Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | 1% | — |
Robbie Ray Under 7.5 Strikeouts | — | 1% | — |
Ty France Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | 1% | — |
Carlos Rodon Over 6.5 Strikeouts | 99% | 1% | — |
New York Yankees spread minus 3.5 | — | — | — |
Over 1.5 runs scored | — | — | — |
Over 2.5 runs scored | — | — | — |
Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | — |
Robbie Ray Over 0.5 Earned Runs | — | — | — |
Robbie Ray Over 1.5 Earned Runs | — | — | — |
Robbie Ray Over 15.5 Pitcher Outs | — | — | — |
Robbie Ray Over 2.5 Earned Runs | — | — | — |
Robbie Ray Over 2.5 Strikeouts | — | — | — |
Robbie Ray Over 3.5 Earned Runs | — | — | — |
Robbie Ray Over 4.5 Earned Runs | — | — | — |
Robbie Ray Over 8.5 Strikeouts | — | — | — |
Robbie Ray Over 9.5 Strikeouts | — | — | — |
San Diego Padres spread minus 3.5 | — | — | — |
Total over 10.5 | — | — | — |
Total over 11.5 | — | — | — |
Total over 3.5 | — | — | — |
Total over 4.5 | — | — | — |
New York Yankees
99.3% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and ProphetX.
KalshiIf New York Y wins the New York Y vs San Diego professional baseball game originally scheduled for Sep 5, 2026 at 7:15 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the New York Y vs San Diego professional baseball game originally scheduled for Sep 5, 2026 at 7:15 PM EDT. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two days). If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two days away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
PolymarketIn the upcoming MLB game between the New York Yankees and San Diego Padres, scheduled for September 5 at 7:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York Yankees" if the New York Yankees win the game. This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
The last available prices are New York Yankees: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 99.9¢ on Polymarket, 99.0¢ on ProphetX; San Diego Padres: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 17.0¢ on Polymarket, 2.5¢ on ProphetX. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
The largest price difference shown across venues is 16.0 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.
For example, New York Yankees at 99.3¢ implies about a 99.3% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.